2022 New Holland 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 6th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR visits Michigan International Speedway this weekend for two days of racing between the Xfinity and Cup Series. The first green flag of the weekend will wave on Saturday with the running of the New Holland 250. In fact, all on-track activity will begin on Saturday for both series. The Xfinity Series will conduct practice and qualifying sessions early Saturday morning which will be critical for teams and drivers to get their cars fine tuned for 250 miles of racing. As we prepare for racing at one of NASCAR’s fastest venues, let’s take the time to dive into our expectations for Saturday’s New Holland 250!

From a handicapping perspective, I will admit right off the bat that Saturday’s race at Michigan may not be an optimal betting event. While I am a huge fan of racing at Michigan, handicapping races at the 2.0 mile oval can be somewhat difficult. For starters, the Xfinity Series has not raced at any similar venues this year to provide comparable data. Secondly, racing at Michigan can bring out all sorts of x-factors including fuel and pit strategies because track position is extremely important. Therefore, Michigan is one of those venues where the fastest cars often are not necessarily the cars that will be fighting for the win in the closing laps, especially if the teams do not execute the correct strategy.

While strategy is usually more important in the Cup Series race at Michigan, I would not rule out the possibility of strategy coming into play on Saturday. For that reason combined with the fact we have not had any similar races on the big ovals, I believe bettors should be extremely cautious going into Saturday’s New Holland 250. I am hopeful that Saturday morning’s practice and on-track activity will provide some nuggets to aid our betting targets. However, I think we can go ahead and make some predictions without relying so heavily on practice observations which are not always the best indicator of race time performance. Therefore, let’s discuss the things that we do know going into Saturday!

Performance Trends

Thus far the 2022 season in the Xfinity Series has been a somewhat breakout campaign for J.R. Motorsports. I don’t think many would argue that Joe Gibbs Racing has been the top team in the Xfinity Series for several years in terms of overall speed. However, I think there has been a clear shift for the top spot in favor of the J.R. Motorsports brigade. Justin Allgaier (3), Noah Gragson (3), and Josh Berry (2) have combined for 8 victories through the opening 20 races. Perhaps most relevant to the narrative for Saturday’s New Holland 250 is the fact that those victories have come at Pocono, Talladega, Charlotte, and some of the other horsepower reliant venues.

While I typically would not list a superspeedway in the “horsepower” category, I think you could also argue the fact that the J.R. Motorsports cars have performed extremely well in all of the superspeedway races despite those events being a literal crap shoot to win. At a more tame venue like Michigan which will be more reliant on handling and raw speed opposed to pack racing, I think the raw speed narrative will be prevalent and that is why I am really looking hard at the J.R. Motorsports cars for potential betting targets because I think they have consistently shown the best “raw” speed. Other teams/drivers that have also trended well across all similar handicapping observations includes Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger, Riley Herbst, and Ryan Sieg.

Betting Targets and Fades

AJ Allmendinger is the defending winner of the New Holland 250 coming by way of his dominant victory in this race last year. Allmendinger led 70 of 137 laps while posting a lucrative 143.7 average driver rating. However, I am not confident that Allmendinger can repeat solely based on Kaulig Racing’s dip in performance in recent weeks. The team, as an organization, has been struggling to find speed in recent races and there is no place that will exploit weaknesses in the speed department more than Michigan. While Allmendinger remains one of the top drivers in the series, I am not necessarily “targeting” him this week in betting formats.

As mentioned earlier, my expectations are centered around the J.R. Motorsports cars and I would narrow the focus primarily to the likes of Noah Gragson and Josh Berry. Both drivers have been excellent at the high speed/low grip venues. Gragson is fresh off a victory at Pocono where he obviously did not have the fastest car and this should be another excellent track for the #9 team. Likewise, Josh Berry is another one of those drivers that can slide the car around while keeping his foot in the gas which is an important driver trait for racing at Michigan. After finishing 4th in his 1st Michigan start last year, I would say Berry has sharp value going into the weekend.

Again, I am being very cautious among futures bets. In recent weeks, I have put heavier focus on H2H match-ups that feature the bottom half of the field in the Xfinity Series for two important different reasons. For starters, the Xfinity Series is top heavy with about 6-8 guys that are really close to each other on a week to week basis. Trying to pick the best drivers from that group on a week to week basis does not provide the sharpness we want in betting predictions. Secondly, the bottom half of the field has produced the better value in terms of match-ups and exploits. For example, Riley Herbst and Ryan Sieg are consistently paired against middle to bottom tier drivers despite the fact both drivers have combined for 22 top 10 finishes (more than any other non-playoff drivers aside from Sam Mayer). Therefore, I think the value comes in the bottom half of the competition again on Saturday. Sieg is yet again another excellent H2H options and I also believe Anthony Alfredo is another bottom tier option that gets the best of his equipment at these types of “speed” venues.

*Drivers that I am avoiding at all cost include Daniel Hemric, Brandon Jones, and John Hunter Nemechek going into Saturday

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Practice and qualifying just recently concluded at Michigan International Speedway. Noah Gragson and AJ Allmendinger were the top two fastest cars in both practice and qualifying. Both drivers will start from the front row when the green flag waves this afternoon. While Gragson’s speed was expected, all of the Kaulig Racing cars looked strong in practice which perhaps means that I was wrong in the observation that Allmendinger would not repeat his win from last season due to Kaulig being a touch off in recent weeks. Allmendinger looked really good in practice so perhaps he will contend this afternoon.

Ultimately, I don’t think there were many surprises from practice or qualifying. Riley Herbst was not quite as strong as I expected but he is also not far off either. Justin Allgaier appeared to be the best of the J.R. Motorsports cars in practice however I still fully expect Gragson and Berry to be the guys to beat in race conditions. Ty Gibbs was not necessarily impressive on speed. Gibbs was not bad in terms of lap times but not exactly head and shoulders above the competition like we have seen in some prior sessions this season. Other observations included a lackluster morning session from John Hunter Nemechek. I had already faded Nemechek in a match-up against Allmendinger prior to today’s activity and my reasoning was the equipment Nemechek is piloting this weekend with Sam Hunt Racing. Needless to say, that observation was spot-on and hopefully we can just avoid bad luck in that particular match-up. Ultimately, I just don’t think there were many surprises based on my thoughts above of what to expect going into the weekend. So hopefully that means things will work out this afternoon!

Draftkings New Holland 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 New Holland 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +400 (1.5 units)
Josh Berry +600 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +1500 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

AJ Allmendinger -125 over John Hunter Nemechek (3 units)
Riley Herbst +500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)