2022 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday May 27th, 2022. 8:15PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

The greatest weekend in motorsports has arrived and will culminate on Sunday with the combination of the Monaco Grand Prix, the Indy 500, and the Coca Cola 600. While Sunday’s culmination of prestigious events will be the main focus, NASCAR fans will have the opportunity to enjoy 3 straight days of racing at Charlotte Motor Speedway starting with Friday’s running of the NC Education Lottery 200 in the Camping World Truck Series.

Last week, Stewart Friesen became the 7th different winner through the first 9 races with a breakout victory at Texas. Admittedly, I was targeting Friesen as a driver to fade and that was obviously the wrong choice. Friesen has shown speed all season but has rarely produced the finishes to represent the speed. However, the #52 team was able to put everything together at Texas for just the 3rd victory in Friesen’s career. Friesen’s surprise victory fits the 2022 narrative which has produced heightened parity and multiple winners across all of NASCAR’s touring series.

Obviously with parity at an all-time high, these NASCAR events have been more difficult for bettors. The good news is that the recent weeks of racing on 1.5 mile surfaces like Kansas and Texas should provide some baseline expectations for Friday’s NC Education Lottery 200. One of the major notes for Friday’s opener at Charlotte will be the fact that both Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch will be joining the Truck Series regulars in competition. Chastain has actually competed 3 times this season in the Truck Series but has failed to crack the top 10 in all 3 events. Those results are mostly due to issues but Chastain and the #41 have not exactly displayed race winning speed either. For Kyle Busch, he has also competed in 3 prior races this season which have resulted in finishes of 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd. Despite being an overwhelming favorite each time Rowdy suits up for Truck Series action, Busch has only produced 2 victories in his last 8 starts.

Betting Strategy

Obviously, I never really “like” the idea of leaving Busch off my betting lineup in the lower series events. However, betting odds typically overreact to Busch’s presence meaning much better value can be found in other competitors. The same will be true again on Friday as Busch is currently listed as a +125 overwhelming favorite. With so many Truck Series drivers’ showing the ability to run up front this season, I just don’t like the idea of backing Busch as such slim odds. At the same time, I would not be surprised one bit to see Busch end this mild winless streak. Therefore, I will place a lower risk sprinkle approach on the best drivers that I believe should be a threat behind Busch and also put heavier focus towards the H2H style bets for Friday’s NC Education Lottery 200.

Loop Data

With the last two weeks of racing at 1.5 mile venues under our belts, I thought it would be a good time to evaluate the performance at the 1.5 mile venues this season. After throwing out the Atlanta race, I compiled loop data averages for races at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Texas which should provide some solid correlation to racing at Charlotte this weekend. In the data below, I focused on all of the Truck Series’ regulars for transparency. Surprisingly, you will notice names like Chandler Smith and Stewart Friesen who are right in the thick of the traditional series favorites of John Hunter Nemechek and Zane Smith. Additionally, you will also notice names like Ben Rhodes, Matt Crafton, and Grant Enfinger who are much lower on the performance totem pole. Needless to say, I believe the loop data below should give a solid baseline for the Truck Series’ regulars and is a useful data set especially for evaluating potential H2H match-ups.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chandler Smith	112.2	5.3	11.7	4.3	8.0	54	29	32	417
John Hunter Nemechek	109.5	1.0	3.3	12.7	5.0	29	32	40	417
Stewart Friesen	108.7	8.3	6.0	6.3	8.3	39	28	60	417
Zane Smith	108.6	8.3	7.0	11.7	8.3	44	78	123	411
Christian Eckes	102.6	10.0	9.3	12.0	7.3	18	18	44	409
Ty Majeski	101.2	7.7	11.7	6.0	8.3	40	12	1	417
Carson Hocevar	91.5	16.0	10.3	11.0	10.3	26	8	13	417
Ben Rhodes	90.9	9.0	8.3	23.0	9.7	41	3	13	385
Derek Kraus	85.6	10.0	7.7	23.0	12.0	-29	2	0	356
Matt Crafton	82.7	12.7	18.7	8.7	13.0	39	3	0	417
Tanner Gray	81.2	9.7	14.0	16.0	11.3	-6	1	7	417
Grant Enfinger	80.1	14.3	12.0	12.7	12.3	-8	7	0	417
Matt DiBenedetto	76.5	20.3	12.3	8.0	15.0	39	0	0	417
Tyler Ankrum	73.4	17.3	10.0	22.0	13.3	-15	3	0	407
Chase Purdy	69.1	17.3	17.7	16.3	17.0	-25	0	3	417
Bret Holmes	65.4	31.5	17.5	12.0	19.5	-7	0	0	283
Austin Wayne Self	61.7	21.3	20.3	17.0	20.3	14	2	0	416
Hailie Deegan	59.0	14.7	22.7	22.7	20.7	-5	0	0	327
Dean Thompson	57.0	20.3	25.7	21.0	23.0	-7	1	0	413
Colby Howard	53.8	22.0	25.7	26.7	24.7	3	0	0	301
Jack Wood	53.7	18.0	19.3	25.0	22.3	-56	0	0	351
Tate Fogleman	53.1	28.3	18.3	18.3	23.7	-14	0	0	416
Timmy Hill	45.6	28.7	26.3	22.0	26.0	-19	0	1	413
Lawless Alan	45.6	28.7	26.0	23.0	25.3	-52	0	0	413
Kris Wright	42.9	18.7	28.7	26.0	26.3	-19	0	0	372
Spencer Boyd	30.7	31.0	30.3	29.0	30.3	-51	0	0	406
Blaine Perkins	30.3	27.3	34.0	31.3	32.7	-13	0	0	296

Betting Targets

The schedule for Friday’s NC Education Lottery 200 is similar to what we experienced last week at Texas which involves practice and qualifying in just a few hours before the green flag. Therefore, there will be another tight window from when odds are posted following qualifying and the start of the event. I would encourage bettors to place the majority of their bets early unless you really want to wait on the practice/qualifying observations. For now, I want to outline my thoughts prior to tomorrow’s on-track activities and highlight the drivers that deserve betting consideration.

For futures predictions, I think there is really good value in the likes of Zane Smith and Chandler Smith as pivots against the betting favorites. Chandler Smith is getting 15 to 1 odds and owns the best average rating in our loop data above. The KBM driver also captured the first win of the season at a 1.5 mile venue back at Las Vegas. Meanwhile, Zane Smith has already captured 3 victories this season but continues to take a backseat to John Hunter Nemechek in the odds department. Nemechek has failed to finish in the top 5 at any of the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Despite trouble last week at Texas, Zane has finishes of 2nd (Las Vegas) and 1st (Kansas) in his other two starts at similar intermediate layouts this season.

In terms of H2H options, I really like the stats, momentum, and budding talent in the likes of Ty Majeski and Christian Eckes. Both drivers have performed really well at the 1.5 mile venues with average running positions that mirror the stats of the overall favorites. Majeski has really been hot in recent weeks with top 5 finishes in the last 3 races at Darlington, Kansas, and Texas. Meanwhile, Eckes is coming off his best finish (2nd) of the season last week at Texas and if you look back through Eckes’ brief history in the Truck Series; he consistently produces his best results at the 1.5 mile venues. Therefore, I really like both Majeski and Eckes in H2H formats. Another driver that also deserves some consideration in H2H formats includes the #17 of Ryan Preece. Preece has performed well in the #17 truck with finishes of 7th or better in all 4 prior starts this season. As a less popular name among the Truck Series competitors, Preece may provide some sleeper H2H value as well.

Practice Notes

Practice just concluded at Charlotte Motor Speedway for tonight’s NC Education Lottery 200. At the end of the brief session, Zane Smith recorded the fastest lap at 176.939mph. Ultimately, I don’t think we learned a lot from practice that would change our prior betting thoughts. Kyle Busch was 11th on the speed charts which at least suggest the pivot approach may be the best play, at least in terms of betting odds.

I thought all of the KBM trucks were less than stellar overall. Matt DiBenedetto had some surprising speed in the #25 truck. Meanwhile, Ty Majeski, Carson Hocevar, and Derek Kraus were among the names that impressed in the intermediate range of drivers. I thought Majeski’s race pace was impressive so hopefully our early H2H match-up over Enfinger will come through!

2022 Draftkings NC Education Lottery 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

*Final

Zane Smith +800 (.75 unit)
Chandler Smith +1500 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +2600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Zane Smith +100 over Ross Chastain (3 units)
Tanner Gray -130 over Colby Howard (3 units)
Ty Majeski -115 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Christian Eckes +600 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)