In just 36 days, NASCAR’s Cup Series will fire the engines for the first official race of the season with the 64th running of the Daytona 500. In recent days, NASCAR’s silly season has been in full force with multiple tests for the upcoming debut of the Next Gen Car which has been the talk of the racing world. Most recently, Cup Series’ drivers held multiple testing sessions at the newly repaved Atlanta Motor Speedway which provoked a lot of discussion around the type of racing fans should expect this year. To say the 2022 season will provide significant change, may be the understatement of the century. In fact, I would argue the anticipation and intrigue surrounding the upcoming 2022 campaign is unlike any other in the modern era.
To attempt to predict what will happen in the Cup Series this season, bettors would be foolish to ignore the high risk towards preseason predictions. We simply do not have any idea how the Next Gen Car will impact drivers and teams compared to performance trends we witnessed a season ago. Drivers and crews will face the challenge of adapting to a new driving style and a chassis that has some nuances compared to cars over the last few years. Simply put, it will be a change for everyone on the competition ladder. Personally, I am a very conservative bettor in the first races of every NASCAR season and I will likely be even more conservative early in 2022. However for those looking for some super early betting opportunities, the 2022 Cup Series championship odds have been posted across all major sportsbooks.
In full disclaimer, I have never been a huge futures guy at least pertaining to championship odds. In today’s points format, it really comes down to a single race as opposed to season-long achievements. More importantly, I favor an in-season sprinkle approach as the most appropriate championship betting strategy in NASCAR where you routinely compound wagers throughout the season, at different intervals according to your bankroll, on the drivers that are showing the best performance trends. While we are currently weeks away from our first performance observations of the season, I still want to take the time to discuss the current 2022 championship odds and highlight the drivers that currently offer enough value for your betting consideration!
| Cup Series Championship | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| Chase Elliott | +550 |
| Denny Hamlin | +850 |
| William Byron | +900 |
| Kyle Busch | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +1200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1400 |
| Joey Logano | +1500 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1750 |
| Alex Bowman | +2100 |
| Christopher Bell | +2350 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2900 |
| Kurt Busch | +3100 |
| Tyler Reddick | +4500 |
| Austin Cindric | +9000 |
| Ross Chastain | +13000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +13000 |
| Austin Dillon | +13000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +13000 |
| Aric Almirola | +15500 |
| Bubba Wallace Jr | +20000 |
| Justin Haley | +25000 |
| Harrison Burton | +27500 |
| Cole Custer | +27500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | +35000 |
| Erik Jones | +40000 |
| Chris Buescher | +40000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +70000 |
| Michael McDowell | +70000 |
| Corey Lajoie | +150000 |
| Cody Ware | +200000 |
| Josh Bilicki | +200000 |
While there are a lot of unknowns with the new car, we should expect an increased level of parity this season. All organizations are basically starting in the same batter’s box with most teams still behind on the development of their Next Gen cars stemming from findings discovered in testing with overheating issues and NASCAR’s consistent updates to the overall specs of the new machines. While we cannot focus on the unknowns, we do know this new car will present unique driving changes. Throughout the majority of the testing sessions this off-season, drivers have been adamant that the Next Gen car will favor the guys that like a “loose” setup. A common theme that has been discussed is that the turning radius is much smaller and these cars react stronger to driver input. Therefore, I am led to believe that we will continue to see the more talented drivers pace the field at the traditional ovals.
When I think of drivers that give the best input behind the wheel in low-grip/loose conditions, names like Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Kevin Harvick quickly come to mind. Harvick is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career but if Stewart-Haas Racing benefits from the new car; Harvick could be among the drivers poised for a strong comeback. While I don’t believe any of the “top” names are worthy of betting consideration at this point in the year, I will go on record to say I expect Larson to continue to be the guy to beat as I firmly believe he is the best talent in the sport; which is something we don’t always say about reigning champions with NASCAR’s current chase format.
In terms of championship predictions, I am focused on a few drivers that yield the best value for early considerations. While I may not be the biggest fan of championship predictions, this is the time of the year where bettors can capture extreme value if you can accurately pick a few drivers that can have a breakout season. I have spent some time scouring the odds of each driver and I want to highlight a few that warrant consideration. Take a look at a few of the predictions that I have compiled for the 2022 Cup Series campaign:
The betting angle for Busch is similar to Kyle Larson’s 2020 season. As Larson benefited from leaving Chip Ganassi Racing, I expect Busch will also benefit from his departure from Chip Ganassi Racing. The elder Busch will join Bubba Wallace at 23XI Racing which is basically an extension to Joe Gibbs Racing. In my risky opinion, Busch will benefit from better equipment especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. Lastly, don’t overlook a lottery style option in Tyler Reddick +4500. Reddick was the most improved driver throughout the 2021 season and he is another pure wheelman that will likely benefit from the Next Gen car. Reddick had several “moments” in 2020 where he displayed his raw skill set. The former two-time Xfinity Series Champion has been underrated throughout his career despite being one of the most talented drivers in the series. Don’t be surprised if Reddick takes another step forward in 2022.
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