2022 Nalley Cars 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 19th, 2022. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will be featured in the 2nd leg of Saturday’s doubleheader at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Shortly after the Camping World Truck Series waves the checkered flag in the FR8 208, the Xfinity Series will get their opportunity to go racing at the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway. Unlike the Truck Series, bettors and fans are not exactly sure what type of racing will be produced in Saturday’s Nalley Cars 250. Atlanta’s reconfiguration featured elevated bankings which now stand at 28 degrees in the corners. Combined with the newly repaved surface and the higher bankings, many pundits believe Atlanta’s former rugged 1.5 mile layout will be transitioned into a superspeedway style venue with this weekend’s races.

For the Nalley Cars 250 on Saturday, it is important to note that the Xfinity Series will run restrictor plates which mirrors that rules packages commonly used at Daytona and Talladega. While the Cup Series no longer runs restrictor plates, the Cup Series will also run the same rules package this weekend that was utilized in the Daytona 500. With that being said, I’m still not convinced you will see true “pack” style racing on Saturday. The Xfinity Series has experimented with restrictor plates at non-superspeedways in the past, most notably Indianapolis Motor Speedway. While Atlanta will provide a more superspeedway “feel” with the high banking, the racing groove has also been narrowed to just 40 feet. Therefore, do not expect multiple lanes of cars pushing towards the front like the traditional superspeedways. Instead, consider this a hybrid style race where track position and setup combinations will be more important.

Betting Strategy

With practices being rained out on Friday, all of NASCAR’s touring series will go into Saturday blind. NASCAR did cancel qualifying for each series and elected to substitute practices into the schedule on Saturday to give drivers/teams a chance to familiarize themselves with the new Atlanta Motor Speedway. As it currently stands, we still don’t have the best indicator of the style of racing that will unfold. While I am expecting a more hybrid superspeedway/intermediate style event, nothing is certain until we see on-track activity. As a result, we have to proceed with betting caution and limit our overall risks for the weekend.

Betting Targets

At this point, Saturday’s betting targets are mostly based around educated speculation. Under this rules package, the Kaulig Racing and Richard Childress Racing cars were extremely fast back at Daytona especially in single car formats. The Kaulig Racing cars have a tremendous pedigree at the superspeedway ways and while I don’t believe they will be able to work together as closely as the traditional superspeedways; we have to elevate the chances surrounding Daniel Hemric, AJ Allmendinger, and Landon Cassill.

It is also worth noting that the Chevrolet teams dominate the Xfinity Series in terms of cars and teams. There are just a handful of Toyota and Ford teams in the field which could be troublesome if teamwork is needed to make moves. For that reason, I’m downgrading the chances of some of the popular names like Ty Gibbs and Trevor Bayne for Saturday. Instead, I am going to keep my eye on the majority of the chevrolets and look for betting value for options. Noah Gragson is off to one of the hottest starts in Xfinity Series’ history but is listed as the outright favorite at the majority of online books. In what is expected to be a highly volatile and close proximity racing, we cannot rule out big accidents that could damage the value of overall betting favorites and play into the favor of some of the dark horses.

Therefore, I am looking for value plays for Saturday’s Nalley Cars 250. Guys like AJ Allmendinger, Austin Hill, and Sam Mayer may have more value than what meets the eye. Allmendinger has been exceptional at the superspeedway venues and feels like his team is the best at getting speed in their restrictor plate setups. Austin Hill won his 1st Xfinity Series race back at Daytona last month and is a very underrated talent from behind the wheel. The #21 team had tremendous speed at Daytona which raises his value again this week. Lastly, don’t overlook guys like Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer for dark horse still options as well. Both drivers have been showing improvement with each start and are in equipment capable of getting to the front.

Practice Observations

*Update: Xfinity Series practice has concluded for the Nalley Cars 250. Overall I was pleasantly satisfied with our early notions around the Kaulig Racing cars, Austin Hill, and a few others that I mentioned above that should be factors this afternoon. The field definitely looks top heavy among the top teams but racing conditions could mix-in some surprise players. Trevor Bayne and Brandon Jones were also really solid on the time sheets but they were also hooked together for much of the opening practice.

Overall I did not see much of anything to deviate from prior observations. This will still be a highly volatile race but probably more of an actual race than the lottery style format that the Cup Series will likely produce.

Draftkings Nalley Cars 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 Nalley Cars 250 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +800 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1000 (.75 unit)
Austin Hill +1500 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Riley Herbst -120 over Brett Moffitt (3 units)
Austin Hill -115 over Sam Mayer (2 units)