2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 24th, 2022. 3:22PM (EST)
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: USA

So far this weekend, Pocono Raceway has held 3 different races across NASCAR’s different touring series and on Sunday we will conclude with the grand finale when the Cup Series waves the green flag for the M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 at the Tricky Triangle. Historically, Pocono has hosted at least two races each season which has been a Cup Series tradition that dates back to the early 1980s. However, Sunday’s M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 will mark the only stop at Pocono Raceway that is slated for the 2022 season.

If you look back through the recent history at Pocono Raceway, Joe Gibbs Racing has essentially dominated with victories in 7 of the last 9 races. Of course historical trends do not guarantee repeat performances, especially in the year of the Next Gen Car. However, Joe Gibbs Racing displayed a lot of speed yet again in this morning’s on-track activities. In fact, Denny Hamlin earned his 3rd pole of the season with a fast time of 169.991mph in qualifying. Hamlin edged out teammate Kyle Busch for the pole and Martin Truex was also in the mix among the guys starting at the front of the field. Needless to say, Joe Gibbs Racing is showing yet again they may be the guys to beat on Sunday at Pocono.

Before we jump into handicapping discussion, let’s first discuss racing at the Tricky Triangle. Pocono is among the largest ovals in the series at 2.5 miles in length. The flat racing surface and high speeds can make passing difficult despite the very large racing surface. Additionally, cars can pit at the front of the field without losing a lap which can be really helpful in terms of pit road strategy. Add in a GoodYear tire that does not create a ton of tire wire and you have a perfect recipe for an unpredictable event that will likely be influenced by some type of strategy or late race decisions. For these reasons, bettors have to remain disciplined towards overall risk because the fastest car rarely wins at Pocono.

Pocono Loop Data

I was hesitant towards showing loop data this week for Pocono because historical results are based on the old car which had a huge influence on the type of equipment drivers were piloting. However, there is a very unique feel towards getting around Pocono that some drivers have figured out. Below you will see a loop data breakdown of the last 5 races. Granted when reviewing this data set, we must keep in mind the former equipment advantage that the major teams owned at the time.

The top 3 names on our loop data (Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch) have accounted for 7 of the last 9 wins at Pocono. While this year’s trip to Pocono will surely be different with the Next Gen Car, I think the loop data below can be used to identify those drivers that have overachieved at the Tricky Triangle despite the equipment narrative. Drivers like Aric Almirola and Chris Buescher are a few examples that catch my eye. Despite mediocre equipment in recent years, both Almirola and Buescher have solid stats in terms of average running position, fastest laps, and other key indicators. As a result, we must keep those drivers on our radar this week for potential value in H2H formats because they should be able to show their skill set for Pocono at an even greater level this week with the Next Gen Car.

*Loop data from last 5 races at Pocono Raceway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Denny Hamlin	123.3	11.6	7.0	4.4	7.0	-6	72	103	703
Kevin Harvick	112.8	9.2	14.2	4.2	8.8	56	77	90	703
Kyle Busch	112.5	9.8	5.4	11.0	10.8	28	79	118	637
Kyle Larson	104.5	12.0	10.7	5.3	10.3	120	45	15	433
Martin Truex Jr	99.2	10.4	12.8	9.6	9.6	41	17	38	703
Brad Keselowski	97.9	12.0	10.2	8.2	12.2	75	54	44	703
William Byron	97.7	14.8	13.4	8.0	11.8	20	28	35	703
Aric Almirola	95.0	7.6	12.2	10.4	12.0	-3	27	65	703
Joey Logano	88.4	12.4	12.0	18.0	12.4	-50	25	29	696
Ryan Blaney	87.7	16.8	20.4	11.0	14.6	-29	39	21	702
Alex Bowman	86.2	16.4	13.2	12.8	14.2	9	12	34	702
Kurt Busch	83.7	7.8	11.8	16.8	12.4	-58	20	47	702
Erik Jones	79.2	21.0	13.2	19.2	17.8	79	7	10	639
Chase Elliott	78.1	17.2	8.6	21.2	17.6	78	5	0	621
Christopher Bell	76.2	16.5	17.8	23.0	20.5	-45	7	3	434
Chris Buescher	71.2	18.8	24.0	20.2	20.6	3	12	9	698
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	69.9	9.0	19.0	21.2	17.4	-63	3	0	674
Austin Dillon	69.1	17.2	20.8	17.2	18.0	-19	3	0	703
Tyler Reddick	68.9	17.8	15.5	21.3	21.3	8	8	0	531
Bubba Wallace	68.3	18.6	18.2	16.6	16.6	-26	2	3	701
Michael McDowell	61.9	18.6	20.2	21.8	21.2	-31	4	13	578
Daniel Suarez	61.8	18.8	23.0	21.2	19.4	-2	2	0	700
Chase Briscoe	59.1	26.0	19.0	22.5	19.5	5	0	0	270
Ross Chastain	58.4	25.3	18.3	29.7	23.3	-4	0	10	427
Cole Custer	51.1	23.5	19.8	23.8	23.8	37	0	0	422
Corey LaJoie	48.8	29.4	27.8	25.8	25.2	16	3	0	694
Ty Dillon	47.6	28.3	23.0	26.0	25.0	-15	2	0	427
B.J. McLeod	31.4	33.4	35.0	33.6	34.0	-17	1	0	595

Practice Observations

In Saturday’s brief practice session, Ross Chastain topped the charts with a fast time of 167.720mph. Not only did Chastain hold the fastest lap but he also held the fastest overall average in practice despite running more laps than the majority of the field. Interestingly, Chastain has never finished better than 24th in 6 career starts at Pocono which includes two starts last year for Chip Ganassi Racing. However, Pocono is one of those venues where aggressive drivers typically produce speed and that fits Chastain’s driving style. Needless to say, Chastain should be among the guys to watch on Sunday.

Unfortunately, there was not enough laps run in practice to get a confident gauge of everyone’s strength in race trim. Chase Elliott led the fastest 10 and 15 lap categories however only 4 cars total run at least 10 consecutive laps. In reviewing the raw lap times, it appeared that Elliott, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Busch were among the drivers that were really solid lap over lap. Meanwhile, guys like Erik Jones and Kurt Busch showed impressive speed as well. Ultimately, I thought the Toyotas of Bell and Busch appeared the best on the long run. However, I am not so sure long run speed will mean as much as clean air and the battle for track position on Sunday.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, is anyone going to continue to write off Chase Elliott? I mentioned Elliott’s speed in practice but perhaps most importantly is the fact Elliott has finished 1st or 2nd in the last 4 races across an array of different venues. Elliott has never been overly impressive at Pocono but the #9 team is performing at their best right now. Aside from an obvious choice in Elliott, I am going to side with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch as top options going into Sunday. Both Hamlin (6) and Busch (4) are 1-2 on the wins list among active drivers and they are elite drivers at Pocono regardless of the new car narrative. I really liked the speed the Toyotas displayed as a group and I believe that only boosted the stock for both Hamlin and Busch.

I do believe guys like William Byron and Ross Chastain will overcome poor qualifying efforts to get to the front of the field. I’m just not as confident as I am in those drivers as Hamlin and Busch. In fact, I am more interested in identifying value in H2H match-ups and prop bets. Traditionally, Pocono is a good handicapping track until late race strategy shakes things up. However, we cannot predict strategy and must stay the course with our handicapping methods. Trending high on my list this week includes a plethora of drivers like Chris Buescher, Aric Almirola, and Alex Bowman. I throw Bowman into the list because he consistently gets overshadowed by the other Hendrick Motorsports drivers. However, Bowman won the Saturday race at Pocono last year and looked really solid in practices. Meanwhile Buscher and Almirola are drivers that I believe will yield significant upside in all formats.

Draftkings M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +550 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1500 (.5 units)
Christopher Bell +1500 (.5 units)
William Byron +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chris Buescher -145 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Alex Bowman -105 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
Chase Elliott +255 wins Group A (Hamlin, Ky. Busch, Larson) (1 unit)
Number of drivers to finish on the lead lap over (-115) 23.5 (2 units)
Chris Buescher +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +1000 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)