2022 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Championship Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday November 4th, 2022. 10:15PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s championship weekend at Phoenix Raceway will begin this Friday with the running of the Lucas Oil 150 to decide the Camping World Truck Series Championship. After a long season, the series’ title will be decided among the likes of Ty Majeski, Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Chandler Smith. Ironically, Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Chandler Smith were the first 3 full-time drivers to score wins this year in the Truck Series. However, Majeski has been the guy that has caught fire in recent weeks and has emerged as the overall favorite going into Friday night’s season finale.

Despite having the least amount of career wins (2) as all other championship competitors, Majeski enters championship weekend as the favorite due to the fact he has captured victories in 2 of the last 3 races at Bristol and Homestead. However, I would argue that Phoenix Raceway is not your typical oval where momentum easily carries over. Instead, this is a track that is about driver’ experience and feel which often has a correlation to experience. Zane Smith, Chandler Smith, and Ben Rhodes have been strong throughout their career at Phoenix which really equates to the fact that all of this week’s championship contenders should feel good about their title chances.

Handicapping Quick Notes

• Despite popular belief, the Truck Series’ champion has only been the season finale race winner in 2 of the 8 years since the Championship 4 began.
• The Truck Series has only raced at 1 comparable venue this season won by Chandler Smith at Richmond
• Chandler Smith has finished 3rd, 3rd, and 1st in his 3 career starts at Phoenix
• Zane Smith has finished 2nd and 5th in 2 career starts at Phoenix
• Stewart Friesen has finished 6th or better in each of the last 5 races at Phoenix
• Matt Crafton has finished outside the top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix
• The race winner has started inside the Top 10 in 29 of 31 CWTS races at Phoenix
• The average number of cautions over the last 10 races at Phoenix is 6.2

Practice Observations

While qualifying will not take place until Friday evening, Truck Series’ teams and drivers had the opportunity for a full 50 minute practice session on Thursday. At the end of practice, Ty Majeski held the top spot on the leaderboards with a fast lap of 138.884mph. Majeski and Zane Smith appeared to be the best of the championship contenders in reviewing raw lap data. However, I would point out the fact that John Hunter Nemechek was actually the best outright driver in terms of raw times. Nemechek also led the charts with the best 10 and 15 lap consecutive averages. Interestingly, Nemechek has never won at Phoenix but has posted two runner-up finishes in 8 career starts. Therefore, we cannot forget about Nemechek going into Friday night’s finale.

For less popular names, I thought Tanner Gray and Layne Riggs both exceeded expectations on Thursday. Riggs has posted finishes of 7th (IRP) and 19th (Richmond) in his only two career Truck Series starts this season. Both IRP and Richmond have some similarities to Phoenix and perhaps that means Riggs poses some H2H value going into Friday night’s event as a bottom-tier driver. On the other side of the expectations outlook, I did not think that Ben Rhodes had the same speed as the other championship contenders and I think that belief is consistent with the underwhelming results from all of the Thorsport Racing trucks in practice.

Betting Targets

When taking into equation all of the different handicapping angles and practice observations, I am pretty comfortable claiming that Zane Smith and Chandler Smith are the drivers to beat going into Sunday. Ty Majeski appears to have really good front-run speed but I do believe that this type of racing favors both the #38 and #18 the deeper it goes especially on long green flag runs. If we delineate that handicapping duo by recent momentum, perhaps Chandler Smith gets the nod considering the #38 team has been somewhat stale in the speed department in recent weeks. As a result, I would look for Chandler Smith as the “sharp” play among the championship favorites.

With that being said, current betting odds are pretty distasteful. In fact, there are currently 4 drivers that are listed at 4-1 odds or less for the Lucas Oil 150. Perhaps odds will get better after qualifying but there will be a really tight window for odds to be re-posted following qualifying. As things currently stand, I am way more focused on H2H bets which provide the best upside. The drivers that appear to have much higher ceilings than betting odds suggests include the likes of Stewart Friesen, Colby Howard, and Layne Riggs. Those 3 drivers appear to have the best “value” in terms of current expectations vs. ceilings which can be used in H2H match-ups and perhaps in fantasy formats dependent upon qualifying Friday evening.

Draftkings Lucas Oil 150 Optimal Lineup

2022 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks

*Final*

Chandler Smith +400 (1 unit)
Stewart Friesen +1500 (.5 unit)
Layne Riggs +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Zane Smith -130 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
Stewart Friesen +130 over Corey Heim (2 units)
Colby Howard -110 over Chase Purdy (2 units)
Ben Rhodes +600 top finisher of Championshihp 4 (.5 unit)
Layne Riggs +750 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)