2022 Kwik Trip 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 3rd, 2022. 3:25PM (EST)
Where: Road America
TV: USA Network

NASCAR’s Cup Series will celebrate Independence Day Weekend with a return to Road America for the running of the Kwik Trip 250 on Sunday. Last year, Chase Elliott padded his road course resume by winning the Cup Series’ first return to Road America in more than 60 years. However, Sunday’s return to this incredible 4.048 mile facility will feature a new twist with the Next Gen Car. Road course racing in general has perhaps benefited from the Next Gen Car with greater parity which has opened the door for two first-time winners at Circuit of the Americas (Ross Chastain) and Sonoma (Daniel Suarez) at the first two road course venues this season.

In the days of the old car, the road course venues were typically dominated by just a handful of drivers, most notably Chase Elliott. In today’s environment, the dominance is far less one-sided and already this weekend we have seen guys like Joey Hand and Michael McDowell earn top 10 qualifying spots in Saturday’s on-track activities which really speaks to the parity narrative. Therefore, bettors should be prepared for another potentially volatile event where we will have to be very sharp with our selections in effort to make profit.

Earlier today, Chase Elliott earned the pole for Sunday’s Kwik Trip 250 by barely edging out Chase Briscoe by just 4 one-hundredths of a second. Elliott is widely known as the best road course talent in the series but he has led just 26 laps through the opening two road course races which all come at Sonoma. The #9 team has been unhappy with their road course performance but appears to have made some improvement by unloading a fast car this weekend. With the pole victory combined with Elliotts’ illustrious road course resume, he has swelled into a massive betting favorite. Fortunately, that has also opened up some value in names behind Elliott and we will discuss some of the drivers that warrant betting consideration.

Practice Notes

The Cup Series had a full-hour of practice on Saturday but it was divided between two groups. However if you simply look at the practice sheets, the data may be somewhat misleading. The reason is because the opening group was considerably faster on the cool track and that may cause some misleading data elements if you do not know what you are looking at. Instead of discussing fast laps, I was closely watching for consistency on the raw data feeds. In terms of consistency, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, and Kyle Larson were the top drivers lap after lap. I will say Chase Elliott and Daniel Suarez also had some fast times but they were just not quite as consistent as those other names. However, not everyone is pushing for everything they can get out of the car during practice either.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Joe Gibbs Racing and Kaulig Racing teams were struggling during Saturday’s on-track activities. AJ Allmendinger is an elite threat anytime the Cup Series visits the road course venues evidenced by his victory last year at the Indianapolis Grand Prix. However, Allmendinger was extremely unhappy with the handling of the #16 car on Saturday which is a sentiment that was also shared by teammate Justin Haley. For the JGR cars, they simply did not have the speed that most anticipated going into the weekend. Martin Truex was well down the speed charts. Kyle Busch’s team elected to change an engine after finding concerns, and Denny Hamlin was likewise down the speed charts. The only driver that had a decent afternoon was Christopher Bell in terms of outright speed so perhaps that is something to be concerned about for the JGR cars going into Sunday.

Loop Data

I am not necessarily hanging my hat on loop data stats this week. However, I did want to put together a brief snapshot of the prior two races on the road course venues this season. As you will see, both TrackHouse Racing drivers Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez are at the top of the charts which may not be surprising if you understand both drivers scored their first career victories at the prior two events. However, I still think it is impressive that both drivers are at the top of the charts from the same organization and both drivers have returned with strong speed yet again at Road America this weekend.

Aside from the TrackHouse Racing duo, the other names that immediately standout that have exceeded expectations in the prior two road course events include the likes of Chris Buescher, Austin Cindric, and Kevin Harvick. Cindric may not be a surprise given his road course background. However, Buscher is an extremely underrated road course talent and the #17 has shown solid speed in recent weeks when compared to the rest of the Ford camp. For Harvick, he is obviously not having the season we would traditionally expect from the veteran. In fact, Harvick has been a fade option for most weeks but the road course venues and short tracks have been the exception to the rule. For whatever reason, Stewart-Haas Racing has been really solid at the road course venues and Harvick has routinely been the best of the group.

DRIVER	Avg. Rating	Avg. Running Position	Pass Differential	Fastest Laps	Laps Led
Ross Chastain	121.05	6.5	-23	20	31
Daniel Suarez	108.65	12	-14	19	62
Austin Cindric	105.8	11.5	-31	8	11
Ryan Blaney	104.05	9	13	4	1
Chase Elliott	101.8	10	17	14	26
Chris Buescher	96.9	11	-58	16	4
Alex Bowman	95.1	11.5	-21	5	0
Tyler Reddick	94.1	12.5	-52	0	2
Kevin Harvick	93.9	12.5	-38	5	0
Michael McDowell	85.65	13.5	-34	0	0
Kyle Larson	81.5	15	16	14	26
William Byron	81.45	16.5	14	1	0
A.J. Allmendinger	78.35	14	-20	4	2
Cole Custer	77.7	14	-92	1	0
Chase Briscoe	77.25	13.5	-16	3	2
Denny Hamlin	74.65	15	-34	3	3
Martin Truex, Jr.	74.1	16.5	-63	2	0
Austin Dillon	73.9	17.5	32	0	0
Justin Haley	72.3	18	73	3	0
Brad Keselowski	71.7	20	59	1	3
Joey Logano	70.35	17	76	1	6
Christopher Bell	70.05	22.5	-40	9	0
Aric Almirola	61.6	21.5	58	1	0
Kyle Busch	59.65	16.5	-16	3	0
Erik Jones	56.6	23.5	19	0	0
Joey Hand	54.25	23.5	-36	0	0
Harrison Burton	53	23	55	0	0
Kurt Busch	51.9	23.5	20	0	0
Todd Gilliland	50.5	25	5	0	0
Ty Dillon	45.75	25	-16	0	0
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	42.7	27	81	0	0
Bubba Wallace	39.25	30.5	10	0	0
Josh Bilicki	38.35	29	69	0	0
Corey LaJoie	32.5	30.5	-41	0	0
Cody Ware	32.2	32	36	0	0

Betting Targets

Chase Elliott deserves to be the overall betting favorite for his road course pedigree and I personally think he is the best road course talent of all-time. With that being said, Elliott will still have legitimate challenges on Sunday. In my opinion, one of the biggest challengers will likely be Ross Chastain. Chastain has been really solid all weekend and has all of the check marks we would typically seek in a betting target. The good news is that Chastain did not have the greatest qualifying effort so there should still be some decent value on the #1 car.

In terms of H2H betting targets, I have a select group of drivers that I really believe will shine on Sunday above current expectations. Those drivers include the likes of Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, and Austin Cindric. Buescher and Bell are among my favorite dark horses in the realm of both H2H match-ups and prop bets. In my opinion, Buescher is one of the most underrated road course talents and how quick everyone forgets that he finished 2nd back at Sonoma. Meanwhile, Bell scored his only Cup Series victory at the Daytona road course and is streaking with top 10 finishes in 6 of the last 7 races. Both Buescher and Bell impressed in Saturday’s on-track activities and are among the best betting options in H2H formats.

*Other drivers trending in a positive direction include the likes of Kevin Harvick, Michael McDowell, Tyler Reddick, and Michael McDowell

Draftkings 2022 Kwik Trip 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 Kwik Trip 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +450 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +900 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +2500 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ross Chastain -125 over Austin Cindric (3 units)
Kevin Harvick +115 over Brad Keselowski (3 units)
Chris Buescher +115 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Cody Ware +10000 finishes Top 10 (.25 unit)