2022 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 10th, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage on Saturday for the running of the Kansas Lottery 300 at Kansas Speedway. While the Xfinity Series’ playoffs is still two weeks away, Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300 marks the Xfinity Series’ first appearance this year at Kansas. Unlike Truck and Cup Series’ teams that competed at Kansas back in May, this will be the first event at a 1.5 mile intermediate layout for NASCAR’s 2nd-tier series since May at Charlotte and performance on the intermediate 1.5 mile layouts will be extremely important when the playoffs begin in just a few weeks.

Unfortunately for bettors, we do not have a ton of recent performance observations at the intermediate venues. However, the Xfinity Series has competed at 3 different 1.5 mile venues this season. As a result, we will take a look at performance observations from earlier this season and combine those thoughts with today’s on-track activities for our handicapping methods. Speaking of on-track activities, Brandon Jones earned his 2nd straight pole award with a fast lap of 174.695mph earlier this afternoon. Jones won the pole award last week at Darlington but could only manage a 14th place finish. However, the #19 team has brought speed again this week and looks poised for a more quality performance.

Perhaps some of the positive news this week is that there are not any Cup Series’ drivers in the field aside from Ross Chastain in the #48 car. For clarity, I don’t mind Cup Series’ drivers competing in Xfinity Series competition. In fact, I welcome that aspect of the sport. However from a betting standpoint, it usually takes away from the Xfinity Series regulars’ opportunities when it happens. While Chastain has been excellent in the Cup Series, the #48 team which consistently fields Cup Series’ drivers has not been overly dominant this year aside from Tyler Reddick’s win at Texas. Therefore, tomorrow’s favorites will not be completely top heavy on the side of the Cup Series’ drivers and that usually equates to better odds for the favorites.

Xfinity Series Loop Data

Since it has been several weeks since the last 1.5 mile venue, I wanted to compile the loop data stats from the 1.5 mile tracks this season to remind bettors how teams have performed this season at similar venues. As I stated in the Truck Series preview, this is the time of year when bettors can start relying on in-season trends and I think that will be the case again this Saturday at Kansas. After compiling the loop data for the 3 prior races at 1.5 mile venues, a clear trend emerged with all 4 J.R. Motorsports drivers taking the top 4 spots as seen below. The “speed” of the J.R. Motorsports cars have been documented fairly well this season but I would argue that the 1.5 mile venues is where they have shown the most strength which is something everyone should keep in mind going into Saturday.

Aside from the strength of the J.R. Motorsports drivers, I don’t think the loop data shows any major surprises. We see Ty Gibbs in close pursuit followed by the Kaulig Racing brigade and the rest of the data seems to follow the performance trends we have witnessed throughout the season. Perhaps one major noteworthy mention includes the extremely discouraging results from Ryan Sieg. To be clear, Sieg has shown speed all year but has crashed out of all 3 events at the 1.5 mile venues. As a result, his performance metrics are well below the mark many would expect. I would just warn bettors that those metrics are not equal to the speed the #39 team has shown at those venues.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Justin Allgaier	124.2	8.0	3.0	5.3	5.0	56	82	158	566
Josh Berry	117.4	4.7	2.3	4.0	5.7	16	53	135	567
Noah Gragson	111.3	4.0	13.0	14.0	12.3	49	68	120	495
Sam Mayer	109.2	6.3	8.3	10.3	5.7	19	21	27	565
Ty Gibbs	101.6	18.0	8.7	5.0	11.3	109	26	6	567
Daniel Hemric	97.6	9.0	10.0	6.7	10.0	2	5	0	567
A.J. Allmendinger	94.9	7.3	8.3	12.3	9.3	-9	23	32	565
Austin Hill	90.8	12.7	5.0	17.0	9.0	22	7	29	554
Brandon Jones	87.3	10.0	15.7	13.3	11.3	56	5	4	565
Landon Cassill	82.5	18.3	18.7	15.0	18.7	39	4	0	498
Riley Herbst	82.3	16.7	13.7	15.7	14.0	27	5	0	563
Sheldon Creed	79.1	15.7	23.7	13.7	16.7	60	5	5	565
Brett Moffitt	76.0	14.3	19.3	16.0	16.0	-3	1	0	547
Jeb Burton	73.6	24.3	16.0	14.7	17.0	42	0	0	564
Jeremey Clements	67.6	18.0	21.3	16.3	17.7	-49	3	0	564
Myatt Snider	63.7	31.0	17.3	17.7	19.7	-12	0	0	564
Brandon Brown	59.2	24.3	26.3	20.7	23.0	-12	0	3	558
Ryan Ellis	58.6	30.7	22.0	18.7	21.7	-23	0	0	545
Bayley Currey	58.4	24.7	17.3	19.0	20.7	-41	0	0	564
Anthony Alfredo	57.3	30.7	22.3	27.3	22.0	31	0	0	445
J.J. Yeley	56.8	20.0	24.0	23.0	22.3	-27	0	0	533
Alex Labbe	54.9	24.5	26.0	24.0	23.5	-10	0	0	336
Stefan Parsons	52.3	19.3	22.3	27.0	24.3	-17	0	0	454
Josh Williams	50.2	25.0	20.0	23.5	24.5	-16	0	0	342
Mason Massey	48.0	28.5	32.5	22.5	25.0	-32	0	0	362
Ryan Sieg	47.9	18.0	28.0	34.7	28.7	-16	0	0	263
Joe Graf Jr	42.8	24.3	24.0	28.7	27.7	-40	0	0	470
Matt Mills	41.6	26.7	26.7	31.0	30.3	-41	0	0	368
C.J. McLaughlin	38.2	34.0	31.0	24.0	29.3	-17	0	0	560
Ryan Vargas	35.7	25.3	33.0	32.3	31.7	-18	0	0	376

Practice Observations

In practice early Friday, Ty Gibbs posted the fastest lap of the afternoon with a speed of 173.422mph. Gibbs was followed closely by last week’s winner Noah Gragson and part-time rookie Sammy Smith. In observing overall raw times, I thought Brandon Jones probably flexed the most consistent speed. However, Ty Gibbs and Noah Gragson were also really solid on the lap charts as well. Obviously, we know that Gibbs and Gragson are better talents but I would not rule out a strong performance from Jones’ this week as the #19 team has definitely found some speed.

Among other observations, Sammy Smith, Josh Berry, and Brett Moffitt were among the names that I thought exceeded expectations. Berry is probably the least surprising name on that list if you consider the speed we called out above in the loop data from the J.R. Motorsports organization. However, Sam Mayer and Justin Allgaier did not have the strong speed shown from the teammates of Gragson and Berry. In fact, Allgaier was considerably off the pace of the leaders and it will be interesting to see how that carries over into Saturday. Other brief mentions of drivers that appeared to be on the wrong side of the speed charts included Daniel Hemric and last week’s winner Jeremy Clements.

Betting Targets

For tomorrow’s Kansas Lottery 300, I am not highly confident in my ability to pick the sharpest frontrunner. There are several drivers that are within striking distance but I’m not sure if I have a strong grasp of who should be the best of the pack. As a result, I will lower my overall risk for futures bets tomorrow with continued sharp focus on H2H match-ups. However, I do like the value of guys like Josh Berry and Brandon Jones opposed to the top favorites like Gragson and Gibbs. Kansas Speedway is one of those venues where track position is extremely important which means pit stops/restarts can be very critical to deciding the outcome. In that type of scenario, I would normally lean towards the pivot options which create more betting value.

In terms of H2H match-ups, Brandon Jones and Brett Moffitt are among my favorite targets going into Saturday. Jones may have lost some value after his 2nd straight pole win but he is still in the odds range of guys like Sam Mayer, Brett Moffitt, and Ryan Sieg are among the names that I believe are much better than current odds suggest. Mayer is getting 20-1 odds in J.R. Motorsports equipment and while he did not have race winning speed in practice; he still should be better than everyone in his general odds range. Meanwhile, Brett Moffitt is my favorite H2H target on Saturday. After fading Moffitt in the trucks on Friday due to poor equipment, we get the exact opposite scenario on Saturday as Moffitt gets his first opportunity in the #07 for Bobby Dotter. Moffitt has piloted the #02 for Our Motorsports nearly all season with mediocre results but now jumps into much better equipment while getting the same bottom-tier odds. Moffitt showed really good speed in practice and I think odds makers have completely missed the mark with Moffitt’s current betting odds. As a result, bettors should jump on the sharp value the #07 provides for Saturday.

Draftkings Kansas Lottery 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +800 (.5 unit)
Josh Berry +900 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +2000 (.5 unit)

*Sorry for the small card today. There were minimal match-ups offered and I just don’t see any value. Full card coming tomorrow