2022 Kansas Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday September 9th, 2022. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: FS1

It has been nearly a full month since we last witnessed the Camping World Truck Series compete at Richmond Raceway, however the Truck Series’ playoffs will rekindle the flame this Friday at Kansas Speedway for the running of the Kansas Lottery 200. As it currently stands, Grant Enfinger and Chandler Smith have already secured their tickets to the Round of 8 thanks to victories at IRP and Richmond. On Friday, two additional drivers will be eliminated from championship contention as the race for the championship heats up!

Back in May, Zane Smith captured his 3rd victory in the opening 8 races with a victory in the Heart of America 200 at Kansas Speedway. Smith recorded a perfect 150 average driver rating in a dominant performance which featured the driver of the #38 leading 108 of 134 laps en route to victory. At the time, Smith appeared to be destined towards a tremendous 2022 campaign. While 3 wins are nothing to be disappointed about, the #38 team has failed to return to victory lane since the last trip to Kansas and perhaps the team hopes they can establish their position as the Truck Series’ top threat on Friday.

Weirdly, the Truck Series has not competed at a 1.5 mile venue since Charlotte back at the end of May. Once the bread and butter of all NASCAR’s touring series, 1.5 mile intermediate venues are less frequent in today’s touring schedules. However, we did get 3 straight weeks of racing at these 1.5 mile venues in May with a stretch that included races at Kansas, Texas, and Charlotte. As a result, we will take a look at the performance during that important 3 race stretch because it could shed some light as to what bettors can expect on Friday!

Truck Series Loop Data

While teams have obviously had time to build, modify, and change their intermediate programs since May, we should still pay close attention to the prior results this season. In my opinion, this is the time of year when you can start relying on in-season performance trends and that will be part of the strategy over the next several weeks. If you notice in the loop data below which highlights those 3 straight races at 1.5 mile venues, it may be somewhat surprising to see Ryan Preece’s name at the top spot. Preece only competed in 2 of the 3 races within the data sample but posted finishes of 3rd and 11th which included several laps led in both events. More importantly, Preece is the only driver with a top 5 average running position (4.0) at the 1.5 mile venues.

Other important notes include really solid results from Zane Smith, Christian Eckes, John Hunter Nemechek, and Ty Majeski. Eckes and Majeski have both maintained strong average running positions and these 1.5 mile venues appear to be good opportunities for both young drivers. As we look through the rest of the data, we see that we have some top heavy bias among the top 6-8 drivers. However, the facts that stand out to me is that the Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks are not quite as dominant as most would expect combined with the less than stellar results from top names like Matt Crafton and Ben Rhodes on the 1.5 mile layouts.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Ryan Preece	117.8	6.5	2.0	7.0	4.0	24	26	36	292
Christian Eckes	111.1	10.0	4.3	3.7	5.7	2	17	45	426
John Hunter Nemechek	109.9	5.7	3.7	5.0	6.0	53	29	17	426
Ty Majeski	108.7	4.7	7.7	6.7	6.3	9	19	5	426
Zane Smith	102.0	7.0	8.0	12.7	7.0	17	84	160	420
Carson Hocevar	101.7	13.3	9.7	11.7	8.0	27	35	61	426
Stewart Friesen	102.3	7.0	8.0	8.0	9.3	33	25	60	426
Chandler Smith	98.2	6.7	14.0	6.7	10.3	31	17	0	426
Corey Heim	93.1	2.0	11.5	20.0	10.5	-15	26	19	273
Ben Rhodes	86.5	11.7	10.3	15.7	10.7	27	3	9	425
Grant Enfinger	86.8	14.3	12.0	5.3	12.0	20	7	0	426
Matt Crafton	79.2	16.3	15.7	12.0	13.0	19	5	5	425
Tanner Gray	75.5	9.0	13.7	16.0	13.0	-24	1	0	426
Derek Kraus	86.8	11.0	10.7	18.7	13.7	11	2	2	365
Matt DiBenedetto	78.6	18.7	11.0	11.3	13.7	28	3	0	425
Tyler Ankrum	69.2	21.0	10.0	23.0	14.3	-17	3	0	415
Chase Purdy	68.3	16.7	16.3	16.3	16.3	-42	0	3	426
Colby Howard	64.0	21.3	20.0	19.7	19.7	8	8	0	416
Hailie Deegan	58.2	19.7	19.7	20.3	19.7	-14	0	0	423
Jack Wood	56.0	16.3	21.3	21.7	21.3	-48	0	0	421
Jesse Little	54.1	19.3	22.7	25.0	21.7	-13	3	0	409
Austin Wayne Self	48.7	24.0	25.7	22.0	24.0	24	1	0	423
Lawless Alan	46.9	31.0	23.7	23.7	24.0	-32	0	0	420
Dean Thompson	53.2	18.7	28.7	26.3	25.3	-40	1	0	418
Timmy Hill	46.4	29.3	26.7	22.7	25.3	-10	0	0	420
Tyler Hill	46.0	31.5	26.0	23.0	25.5	-5	0	0	282
Kris Wright	45.3	20.7	25.7	26.3	25.7	-20	0	0	380
Tate Fogleman	46.9	28.3	20.7	23.7	26.3	-20	0	0	421
Spencer Boyd	32.7	28.3	30.3	27.7	29.7	-26	0	0	415
Blaine Perkins	32.6	27.0	31.3	29.3	30.7	-23	0	0	414
Matt Mills	34.5	25.5	31.5	34.0	31.0	-5	0	0	148

Betting Targets and Fades

Once again the Truck Series will participate in both practice and qualifying sessions in just hours before the green flag. While I will update our preview with practice observations and final thoughts, I’m not sure that practice has provided a ton of value in Truck Series’ competition this season. As a result, I think we can jump into the drivers that warrant immediate betting consideration. Among those drivers that I am targeting for the outright victory include guys like Christian Eckes and Ty Majeski based on betting value. To be clear, I don’t believe either driver is a “favorite” especially with how dominant Zane Smith was back in the spring. However, Eckes and Majeski have excellent value based on current odds and have shown the speed to break through for a victory. In fact, Eckes has finished in the top 5 in both of his prior starts at Kansas Speedway which makes him a strong betting option in all formats.

If you are wondering about the outright favorites, I would love to back Zane Smith this week but I’m not sure that we can based on his current odds. Additionally, all of the big favorites have pretty poor odds so I will likely wait until after practices before finalizing my thoughts for the heavy favorites. Ironically, I have more drivers that I am willing to “fade” week rather than I am targeting. Former Truck Series Champion Brett Moffitt will make a part-time start this week in the #22 truck. While Moffitt’s name carries some prestige, he is piloting poor equipment this week in the truck that is most often piloted by Austin Wayne Self. Along with Moffitt, I also have guys like Matt Crafton and Grant Enfinger on my fade list as well. Both drivers have an average running position outside the top 10 at the 1.5 mile venues and I think that is a product of organizational struggles which are more likely to remain consistent. As a result, I think all of those drivers can be faded in H2H match-ups.

Bayley Currey and Chase Purdy are a couple of lower-tier drivers that have some potential fantasy and H2H appeal this week as well!

Draftkings Kansas Lottery 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Kansas Lottery 200 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +350 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +1100 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +1100 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Christian Eckes -130 over Ben Rhodes (3 units)
Matt Crafton -120 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)