2022 Henry 180 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 2nd, 2022. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Road America
TV: USA Network

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off an intriguing weekend of racing at Road America with the annual running of the Henry 180. The Xfinity Series’ return trip to Road America will officially become the 3rd road course event of the 2022 season. So far this year, AJ Allmendinger has captured victories at both the prior road course venues consisting of Circuit of the Americas and Portland International Raceway. Therefore, Allmendinger will once again be the overwhelming favorite when the Xfinity Series returns to Road America for the Henry 180 on Saturday.

In last year’s trip to Road America, Joe Gibbs Racing captured 3 of the top 5 positions with Kyle Busch winning the event along with the likes of Daniel Hemric and Harrison Burton earning top 5 finishes. For Saturday’s return to Road America, Joe Gibbs Racing no longer has the star-studded lineup that we witnessed in last year’s event nor has Joe Gibbs Racing shown the similar performance strength. While Ty Gibbs remains one of the top talents in the series especially at the road course venues, he will be joined by several prestigious names consisting of the likes of Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, and the rest of the Xfinity Series’ regular participants.

Despite making his 1st start of the Xfinity Series’ season for Hendrick Motorsports, Kyle Larson has swelled into a relatively large overall betting favorite. While Larson is known for his road course skillset and overall talent, I don’t think this is going to be a runaway style lay-up for Larson either. As a result, I believe bettors can find some serious value in the options behind Larson which produce the most promising upside. Behind Larson, we can find considerable value in the likes of AJ Allmendinger and nearly every betting option outside the top 3 favorites. Therefore, I believe Saturday’s Henry 180 will provide some advantageous opportunities among bettors.

Pre-Practice Betting Plays

I am posting my preview for Saturday’s Henry 180 in sections this week. The reason for this slight change is that there are a couple of betting lines that I believe bettors should absolutely hammer. For example, Austin Hill is one of my favorite and most underrated plays as odds currently stand. Hill has finished in the top 3 in each of the prior road course races this year and those finishes are not by circumstance either. Hill has been great on road course venues throughout his career and odds-makers are still completely oblivious to his potential at these venues. Therefore, I am jumping on a few early Hill lines this week. I will post the remaining handicapping notes and betting picks after practice/qualifying sessions on Friday.

Practice and Qualifying Notes

Xfinity Series’ teams and drivers got a brief practice session on Friday which was immediately followed by qualifying for the Henry 180. In the end, Kyle Larson captured the pole to strengthen his stance as the race’s overall favorite. Larson led all of the major categories in practice with the exception of the fastest single-lap speed which was held by Cole Custer. However, Larson clearly looked like the driver to beat and when you factor in the high tire wear/low grip conditions yielded by Road America, Larson’s likelihood of getting to victory lane only increases barring any misfortune.

It is worth noting that AJ Allmendinger, who has won the last 3 races at the road course venues, was not able to qualify the car on Friday due to changes the team elected to make. As a result, Allmendinger will be coming from the rear of the field which perhaps makes him an unavoidable fantasy option. Personally, I thought Allmendinger was really consistent in practice and that is a good indicator because tire wear will be important. In fact, I would label Allmendinger the deserving favorite behind Kyle Larson and perhaps the qualifying woes of the #16 team may lend some betting value.

To be fair, I believe Cole Custer was in close proximity to Larson and Allmendinger from a practice perspective. However, I wonder if Custer will have the skillset to stay with the strong road course pedigrees of the top two drivers throughout a full afternoon of racing. Therefore, I am not as high on Custer’s chances compared to others. Tyler Reddick, Sam Mayer, and Sheldon Creed were a few additional names that flashed signs of really strong speed as well. On the other side of the coin, the drivers that did not perform well during Friday’s on-track activities were most notably the likes of Noah Gragson (wreck), John Hunter Nemechek (speed), and Josh Berry (speed).

Betting Targets

Originally, I did not believe Larson deserved the overwhelming favorite status but that belief has changed after seeing how strong the #17 car was earlier today. There is still considerable value in the drivers behind Larson but I could also justify big plays for Larson as the outright winner as well. Simply put, he may need to get wrecked or have bad luck to get beaten on Saturday. I was hoping that Allmendinger’s qualifying woes would lend some additional betting value as a pivot to Larson but Allmendinger is still listed at extremely short odds.

I mentioned earlier that I am a big fan of Austin Hill’s skillset at the road course venues and still believe he has a high ceiling for Saturday. I took Hill in my biggest H2H bet of the year prior to practices over Sam Mayer. Mayer has never shown the same level of road course talent and as my luck would have it, the young driver turned in one of his best non-race day sessions of the season. I am still confident in the H2H match-up but I would downgrade it to a 3-4 unit play if you have not already jumped on it. Other drivers that I think will produce H2H value include the likes of Jeremy Clements (great road course talent and tons of experience at Road America) along with both Sheldon Creed and Justin Allgaier who are some sharp H2H options that never get the respect they deserve at these venues.

Draftkings Henry 180 Optimal Lineup

2022 Henry 180 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +250 (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger +900 (1 unit)
Austin Hill +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Austin Hill -105 over Sam Mayer (5 units)
Sheldon Creed -140 over John Hunter Nemechek (3 units)
AJ Allmendinger -120 over Ty Gibbs (3 units)