2022 Heart of America 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday May 14th, 2022. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: FS1

On Saturday, the Camping World Truck Series will kick off the racing weekend under the lights at Kansas Speedway with the running of the Heart of America 200. With the Xfinity Series enjoying a rare “off” week, it will be just the Truck and Cup Series in action at Kansas for the weekend and it marks an important stretch of racing that features several 1.5 mile venues over the next few weeks covering Kansas, Texas, and Charlotte. As a result, I would expect Saturday’s Heart of America 200 to set the tone for the Truck Series and provide a baseline of expectations of what we may see over the next few weeks.

The Truck Series has only visited one true 1.5 mile speedway this season. I have to eliminate Atlanta from the true 1.5 mile venue category because of the reconfiguration which now races like a superspeedway. With Atlanta eliminated from the equation, the only other comparable venue this season was back in early March at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In that race, Chandler Smith earned his 2nd career Truck Series victory by beating team owner Kyle Busch. KBM trucks have historically flexed the most muscle at the 1.5 mile venues. In fact, John Hunter Nemechek won 3 times on the 1.5 mile surfaces one season ago. With Smith’s earlier win at Vegas and Nemechek’s pedigree, the KBM duo will once again be the betting favorites to get the job done Saturday night.

As betting odds currently stand, Nemechek appears to be getting all of the betting attention. In fact, some sportsbooks have JHN listed south of 3 to 1 betting odds. While I completely understand why Nemechek is the overall favorite, I’m not convinced he deserves the type of saturated odds that are currently being offered. As a result, I may personally look to pivot against JHN to find better betting value. Chandler Smith and Zane Smith are some promising options with more than twice the betting value. Meanwhile guys like Christian Eckes (winner at Vegas last fall) and Riley Herbst have some enticing value as middle-range dark horses. Herbst will be stepping down from the Xfinity Series this week and joining the #17 team with Team DGR that finished 4th at Las Vegas earlier this year with Ryan Preece behind the wheel.

Loop Data

Since we cannot rely on the results from the March race at Las Vegas in terms of a reliable trend, I wanted to go back and provide a graphic that I displayed earlier this season regarding the 2021 results on the 1.5 mile surfaces. The loop data breakdown below provides the majority of the drivers that competed last season in the Truck Series and how they performed at the 1.5 mile venues. From a handicapping standpoint, we should use this data set as a reference guide. Keep in mind that some drivers/teams have changed and that must be accounted for when interpreting the data below.

As you will see, John Hunter Nemechek posted incredible statistics on the 1.5 mile surfaces last year. However what surprised me personally were the names immediately behind Nemechek which included Christian Eckes and Stewart Friesen. I mentioned earlier that Eckes captured a victory at Las Vegas last year. Eckes also finished 4th and 6th in both Kansas races which should boost his betting value this week. Meanwhile, Stewart Friesen is one of those drivers that rarely gets the job done but also has been strong at the 1.5 mile venues. Friesen actually finished in the 3rd position back at Vegas earlier this year and appears to have some of the Toyota strength shared by the KBM trucks.

*Data reflects all races in CWTS from 2021 at 1.5 mile tracks*

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
John Hunter Nemechek (#4)	132.2	1.8	8	7.3	5.7	0	142	299	770
Stewart Friesen (#52)	99.9	7.2	10.7	12.2	10.2	41	24	6	724
Christian Eckes (#98)	99.2	14.8	13.5	6.3	9.8	42	14	10	542
Todd Gilliland (#38)	98.9	5.7	9	9	9	-25	41	79	818
Ben Rhodes (#99)	98	3.8	10.2	11.3	8.7	26	18	13	812
Zane Smith (#21)	97.2	10.8	20.2	10.8	12.3	23	18	25	800
Matt Crafton (#88)	90.4	8.3	15.3	15.2	11.5	16	13	3	795
Grant Enfinger (#9/#98)	84.9	19.2	10.7	10	13.2	44	8	0	817
Chandler Smith (#18)	84.4	9.3	14.5	18.7	17.5	-32	23	0	749
Tanner Gray (#15)	77.9	21.3	11.5	17.3	14	6	14	7	814
Carson Hocevar (#42)	77.5	9.2	14.3	15.8	16.2	-6	14	13	815
Derek Kraus (#19)	76.3	14.5	19.8	17.8	16.5	49	7	0	807
Tyler Ankrum (#26)	75.3	15.5	11.8	21	16	15	3	2	741
Austin Wayne Self (#22)	67.7	13.2	16.2	15.7	17.7	-30	0	0	814
Hailie Deegan (#1)	63.9	19.8	14.5	21.8	19.5	-28	6	0	775
Spencer Davis (#11)	56.8	30.7	23	21.3	22.7	13	1	0	400
Chase Purdy (#23)	56.7	23.8	22.5	22.8	22.5	-11	1	4	738
Bret Holmes (#32)	56.2	28.2	26	25.5	24.3	49	0	1	687
Drew Dollar (#51)	50.1	15	23.3	26	23.7	-35	0	0	333
Dawson Cram (#41)	49.4	27.4	23.2	25.2	25.8	-67	0	0	674
Danny Bohn (#30)	48.6	25.6	27.8	22.6	27	-57	1	0	663
Tate Fogleman (#12)	48.4	27.5	30.2	26.5	27.3	-10	3	1	706
Kris Wright (#02)	46.9	21	24	24	26.2	-55	0	0	677
Cory Roper (#04)	41.9	26	27.2	27	28.4	-37	0	0	633
Spencer Boyd (#20)	37.8	29.5	29.8	27.2	30.2	-98	0	0	794
Jennifer Jo Cobb (#10)	31.2	34.5	35.2	32.7	34.3	-31	0	0	684
Norm Benning (#6)	25.4	36	37.8	35.8	37.3	-9	0	0	371

Betting Targets

Practice and qualifying sessions will be held early Saturday which may skew some of my final thoughts. I will obviously return to update practice observations after tomorrow’s sessions but I don’t want to keep bettors waiting in the late afternoon hours on Saturday for my betting thoughts. As it currently stands, I cannot imagine backing Nemechek at such low odds. Instead, I would rather place a low-risk sprinkle approach around the pivot options that I mentioned above. My favorite options include the likes of Chandler Smith, Zane Smith, and Christian Eckes from value standpoints.

I have not mentioned much of Zane Smith to this point in my preview but he remains one of the Truck Series’ top talents. Smith finished 2nd back at Las Vegas before being disqualified for failing post-race inspection. Either way, Smith has already won twice in the series this season and has the skills/equipment to get the job done. For Christian Eckes, he is my favorite target in H2H formats however I believe he deserves some consideration for the outright victory as well. Eckes may be off many people’s radars after a somewhat slow start to the season but rest assured the #98 team has really good speed.

Another pair of drivers that are high on my radar this week for H2H and fantasy purposes include the likes of Tanner Gray and Carson Hocevar. For what it’s worth, I’m not the biggest fan of Hocevar’s equipment with Niece Motorsports especially for the 1.5 mile venues. I think Niece Motorsports is 2nd-tier equipment. With that being said, I believe Hocevar is a really good talent that gets the best of his equipment which we saw recently at Darlington. Until proven otherwise, Hocevar will remain high on my H2H target list in the weeks to come. Meanwhile, Tanner Gray is another Team DGR option that has performed better than most would expect. Gray had the 3rd highest average running position back at Vegas and has routinely been solid at the 1.5 mile venues. Therefore, I would give some consideration to the #15 team especially in H2H formats.

Practice and Qualifying Notes

Earlier today, John Hunter Nemechek won the pole for today’s Heart of America 200. Nemechek was among a fast group of KBM Toyota’s that displayed speed in practice. Nemechek, Chandler Smith, and Corey Heim all displayed similar fire-off speed. However, I personally thought that Zane Smith was the best truck on the longer runs. Granted, track position will be important but if Smith gets clean air; he may be able to get away.

Ultimately, I did not observe many outlandish surprises. Bubba Wallace practiced and qualified in the #52 truck for Stewart Friesen. Friesen was not at the track but is expected to run the #52 truck later this evening. Perhaps the most surprising tidbit is that Ben Rhodes and the #99 team really struggled with the handling. Rhodes displayed a few fast laps but was not very consistent with a “tight” condition. Guys that were trending in the right direction for H2H purposes include Riley Herbst, Tanner Gray, and Corey Heim.

Draftkings Heart of America 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Heart of America 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Chandler Smith +650 (.75 units)
Zane Smith +650 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +1600 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Zane Smith -145 over Grant Enfinger (3 units)
Tanner Gray -155 over Colby Howard (2 units)
Christian Eckes +100 over Carson Hocevar (2 units)