Throwback Weekend has arrived at Darlington Raceway and will culminate with Sunday’s main event with the running of the GoodYear 400. The Throwback Weekend is always a fun spectacle for race fans but I am personally just thrilled the Cup Series has returned to tangle with the Lady in Black. Darlington has always been my favorite race track because you can throw out the equipment/organizational advantages from the chassis, setups, and/or engine departments and simply look for the most talented drivers to make their way to the front. There is a reason this track is labeled “Too Tough To Tame” and our betting focus will solely be on the drivers for Sunday’s GoodYear 400.
In my other previews this week for the Truck and Xfinity Series, I mentioned that handicapping Darlington requires a few principles that includes making sure your money is on the most talented drivers and never going against that concept in H2H match-ups regardless of what you may have witnessed in practices/qualifying. So far this weekend, we have pulled out profits in both races and will be looking for the trifecta on Sunday. Though I will state, the Cup Series remains very difficult to gauge with the Next Gen Car especially in terms of futures bets. However, I do believe Darlington is one of those venues that plays into sharp bettors’ hands. Therefore, we will attack this race with a normal risk amount with heavier focus on the H2H match-ups for our strategy on Sunday.
Since I believe that track history is very important at Darlington, I am going to lay out some handicapping notes that speak to historical facts. We must give the data below some bias based on the fact these results occurred with the old car. However, like I said before, Darlington is one of those venues where the best drivers are going to emerge at the front barring a completely botched setup or other issues. Therefore, let’s outline some key notes before taking a look at some further loop data below>
I am not going to spend a ton of time talking about loop data because I think the quick notes above encompasses most of the general content. However, I believe the loop data is an important angle to consider. Aside from the top guys historically, I would point to guys like Erik Jones and Ross Chastain as two drivers that have posted respectable results in less than stellar equipment. Chastain finished 3rd in the fall race at Darlington last year with Chip Ganassi Racing which deserves consideration with how well Chastain has performed thus far in 2022 with TrackHouse Racing and the Next Gen Car. Needless to say, the below data should be a guide to consider but keep in mind these averages were produced by a car that was heavily favored towards organizational performance trends.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 124.2 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 29 | 97 | 156 | 660 |
| Kevin Harvick | 116.8 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 25 | 127 | 231 | 1528 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 116.8 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 38 | 204 | 461 | 1527 |
| Denny Hamlin | 116.0 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6 | 109 | 182 | 1528 |
| Joey Logano | 97.5 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 1527 |
| Chase Elliott | 94.9 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 63 | 67 | 142 | 1480 |
| Alex Bowman | 90.1 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 33 | 77 | 42 | 1522 |
| William Byron | 86.4 | 14.8 | 12.4 | 18.0 | 15.8 | 47 | 15 | 3 | 1346 |
| Brad Keselowski | 86.2 | 6.2 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 13.4 | -29 | 66 | 91 | 1525 |
| Kurt Busch | 85.6 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 41 | 67 | 18 | 1341 |
| Kyle Busch | 84.7 | 12.0 | 15.8 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 40 | 42 | 9 | 1285 |
| Ryan Blaney | 82.9 | 7.2 | 20.2 | 18.2 | 15.2 | 13 | 37 | 17 | 1526 |
| Erik Jones | 82.5 | 22.2 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 57 | 41 | 29 | 1423 |
| Tyler Reddick | 81.6 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 40 | 32 | 2 | 1525 |
| Aric Almirola | 75.6 | 11.8 | 17.8 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1239 |
| Austin Dillon | 75.2 | 13.6 | 19.8 | 11.8 | 16.6 | -31 | 6 | 0 | 1526 |
| Ross Chastain | 72.8 | 25.0 | 20.7 | 15.7 | 18.7 | 22 | 19 | 11 | 1018 |
| Christopher Bell | 69.3 | 21.4 | 10.6 | 20.6 | 17.6 | 6 | 31 | 13 | 1508 |
| Chase Briscoe | 65.6 | 23.0 | 18.5 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -28 | 0 | 0 | 658 |
| Chris Buescher | 65.0 | 24.2 | 16.0 | 19.8 | 20.0 | -59 | 21 | 1 | 1519 |
| Cole Custer | 60.9 | 21.0 | 22.8 | 22.4 | 22.6 | -52 | 10 | 0 | 1330 |
| Bubba Wallace | 58.4 | 19.0 | 23.8 | 23.4 | 21.6 | -77 | 6 | 3 | 1374 |
| Ty Dillon | 56.5 | 20.0 | 23.0 | 21.7 | 22.3 | -46 | 1 | 8 | 864 |
| Corey LaJoie | 54.0 | 26.4 | 23.2 | 25.8 | 23.8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1387 |
| Ricky Shenhouse Jr | 53.1 | 29.6 | 24.0 | 24.2 | 25.4 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 1230 |
| Michael McDowell | 51.6 | 20.2 | 25.2 | 24.0 | 25.8 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 1186 |
| Daniel Suarez | 51.5 | 26.2 | 25.4 | 22.6 | 25.2 | -32 | 2 | 1 | 1520 |
| Justin Haley | 41.6 | 25.5 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 27.5 | -16 | 6 | 0 | 652 |
| Cody Ware | 32.7 | 33.0 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.0 | -20 | 0 | 1 | 397 |
| Josh Bilicki | 32.4 | 35.8 | 32.8 | 31.8 | 32.8 | -15 | 2 | 0 | 1246 |
| B.J McLeod | 32.0 | 34.0 | 34.3 | 33.5 | 34.0 | -25 | 0 | 0 | 859 |
| James Davison | 26.8 | 36.0 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 35.3 | -14 | 0 | 0 | 498 |
Purely from a practice standpoint, I thought the Joe Gibbs Racing cars of Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin fired off really well. Both drivers had solid overall averages but Busch did not appear to have the needed long run speed. Meanwhile, Kyle Larson and Hamlin both appeared to be really good in the long run and probably the class of the field after 10 laps. Hamlin and Larson finished 1-2 in the fall race last year and have some of the best averages at Darlington in the entire series.
I am not sure if there were any big surprises from the brief 30 minute session. Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe were a pair of intermediate range names that appeared to have solid speed. Briscoe typically performs well on the low-grip surfaces and is a former Xfinity Series winner at Darlington. Meanwhile guys like Christopher Bell, Martin Truex, and William Byron were among the names that I thought under-performed based on preliminary expectations. Interestingly enough all 3 of those drivers qualified in the top 10 so I’m not sure if problems were fixed or if they just have the short-run speed needed for their qualifying results.
I have always been a fan of Kyle Larson’s driving style at a place like Darlington and he has been so close on so many different times. It’s not a question of whether Kyle Larson will win at Darlington, it’s a question of when it will happen? With a more neutral Next Gen Car, I think it definitely plays into the hands of Larson but Hamlin has to be considered a top threat option as well. I think the real question to handicapping this race is determining the drivers behind the Larson-Hamlin duo that present the best value.
My vote of confidence goes to Ross Chastain. Not only is Chastain the breakout story of 2022 but he is competing at a championship level. After a 3rd place finish last fall, Chastain has winning upside and can legitimately be targeted in all formats. In terms of simply H2H options, I have narrowed down my list of targets around the trio of Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Simply put, I believe all of those drivers will exceed expectations this weekend. Stenhouse posted a season-best runner-up finish at Dover last week and looked fast again in practices today. The #47 team never shows a lot of strength during qualifying which was evident again today with a 27th place starting result but rest assured he will move forward as the race progresses. Meanwhile, Reddick and Briscoe are talented wheelmen that I believe will benefit from the Next Gen Car at Darlington.
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