2022 GEICO 500 Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 24th, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: FOX

Following a wild race on the dirt at Bristol, NASCAR’s Cup Series will look to display another wild spectacle when the green flag waves for Sunday’s GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The Cup Series has been pretty wide open all year with 8 different race winners through the opening 9 races. While the Next Gen Car has leveled the playing field from a competition standpoint, NASCAR’s Cup Series will ultimately visit the biggest equalizer on the schedule by virtue of Talladega where parity has been a theme throughout the track’s 53 year history.

Truly, I don’t think Sunday’s race could provide a “surprise” winner based on what we have seen from the Next Gen Car this season. I certainly would not be surprised with any winner from the top 30 drivers this week based on how teams have competed through the opening quarter of the season. We have seen lower tier drivers run really well and some of the most promising names in the sport struggle on a weekly basis this season. More importantly, it’s never been any consistency to any of the performances on a week to week basis. Simply put, it’s been almost impossible to establish reliable performance trendlines from the teams/drivers this season. As a result, this Sunday’s GEICO 500 is inevitably a more risky betting event than just a traditional “superspeedway”event.

With that being said, bettors are still being offered juicy superspeedway odds this week that will provide the opportunity for big pay day. Fortunately, we have already witnessed two superspeedway events this season which will help establish a baseline of expectations. We will discuss the first two opening superspeedway races at Daytona and Atlanta before also discussing former Talladega loop data. We will use those discussion points to potentially create some potential betting targets that are worthy of consideration this week. Just be sure to note that the confidence factor behind this week’s predictions is not what we typically desire.

Daytona and Atlanta

If we look back at the two superspeedway races at Daytona and Atlanta, it may surprise bettors to know that Bubba Wallace outperformed all drivers. Wallace struck gold at Talladega last fall by scoring his lone career win in the Yellawood 500 which most fans considered a fluke. However, Wallace has performed best at the superspeedway venues again this season which includes another eye opening runner-up finish in this year’s Daytona 500. If we look at the two only superspeedway races in the Next Gen Car this year, Wallace leads all drivers with the highest average rating between both events.

While Wallace has the highest rating of all drivers between Daytona and Atlanta, I would also point out that we did not really see any dominating trends by any team, driver, or organization between both events. In fact, Chase Elliott is the only driver to finish in the top 10 in both superspeedway races this season. Therefore going back to how I opened this week’s preview, the competition remains more unpredictable with this Next Gen Car. For general notes purposes, Ryan Blaney has the highest average running position (8th) between both races at Daytona and Atlanta. Blaney leads a pack of names that includes Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, and Erik Jones as a surprising top 5 group of drivers that lead the “average running position” category between both races at Daytona and Atlanta.

Talladega Loop Data

Despite the parity produced by the Next Gen Car, I still believe that analyzing historical trends at Talladega will provide some value. After all, there is an art to surviving and positioning yourself in these types of races which typically comes through on the stat sheets. For those reasons, I compiled loop data from the last 5 races at NASCAR’s biggest oval which will show us the drivers that have typically exceeded expectations at Talladega.

As you will see below, Brad Keselowski leads all drivers with the highest average rating (103.9) which should not be surprising. Keselowski leads all active drivers with 6 career victories at Talladega and has been equally impressive over the last 5 races, most notably with finishes of 1st and 2nd in both of last season’s races at Talladega. Other drivers that are also worth noting include the former teammates of Keselowski, in the Team Penske duo of Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Logano is a 3-time winner at Talladega and among the best superspeedway talents in the sport. While Blaney may not have hit the elite level of the superspeedway talent pool, Blaney has won 3 of the last 9 superspeedway races between Daytona and Talladega.

The other major superspeedway talent to mention is Denny Hamlin who is a 5-time superspeedway winner. While the majority of Hamlin’s success has come at Daytona, he is a two-time Talladega winner with quality performance trends over the last several races. Among the more surprising names, I would mention Chris Buescher, Cole Custer, and Kevin Harvick are among other names that are north of the 85.0 average rating. Buescher and Custer are both underrated superspeedway talents though I prefer Custer over the two options. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick is having an awful 2022 campaign. However, Harvick’s former trends at Talladega and in recent superspeedway events keep him on the radar this week.

*Loop data from last 5 races at Talladega

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Brad Keselowski	103.9	7.2	6.8	13.0	8.0	85	16	42	881
Ryan Blaney	100.7	9.2	12.6	10.2	9.8	-13	11	119	879
Joey Logano	99.5	7.4	12.6	19.2	11.2	117	14	113	743
Denny Hamlin	88.8	9.0	27.4	9.4	16.8	-53	21	93	884
Chris Buescher	88.5	20.8	14.2	11.8	13.0	76	15	27	886
Cole Custer	86.8	25.3	13.5	19.0	15.3	38	8	7	607
Kevin Harvick	85.2	10.0	16.8	11.8	12.4	6	20	32	887
Kurt Busch	84.9	12.4	12.2	21.6	16.6	-8	17	25	782
William Byron	84.6	11.4	9.0	17.2	13.2	18	17	37	859
Ty Dillon	83.6	27.3	16.3	8.3	16.0	15	18	0	579
Bubba Wallace	83.3	24.2	12.2	16.4	16.6	117	29	33	876
Erik Jones	82.2	18.6	19.8	15.4	17.8	-92	22	21	860
Chase Elliott	80.8	6.6	12.6	22.0	14.0	39	19	66	831
Alex Bowman	77.4	6.0	14.2	26.8	18.2	6	7	13	717
Kyle Busch	76.9	9.2	14.8	24.6	13.4	-12	17	22	873
Austin Dillon	75.1	15.2	14.2	15.2	17.4	3	19	1	829
Tyler Reddick	73.9	19.8	14.0	18.3	15.8	49	19	23	679
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	72.0	18.2	16.8	19.6	19.8	113	18	47	690
Christopher Bell	71.6	18.8	19.0	22.5	18.8	-13	9	18	499
Aric Almirola	70.9	13.0	20.8	17.0	20.8	-117	15	28	744
Michael McDowell	69.1	23.4	25.0	15.8	20.8	-4	35	1	766
Chase Briscoe	68.4	21.0	26.0	12.5	21.5	49	11	1	308
Martin Truex Jr	66.2	6.2	22.0	23.0	20.0	-48	16	12	877
Ross Chastain	63.2	25.0	25.7	20.3	22.3	-3	11	12	495
Daniel Suarez	58.5	24.8	18.8	28.0	24.6	-6	21	0	774
Corey LaJoie	57.2	28.4	25.2	19.0	26.6	29	21	0	875
Justin Haley	51.0	35.7	30.0	20.3	26.3	-107	8	4	507
Kyle Larson	50.9	9.7	32.0	38.7	30.3	-32	3	3	222
Cody Ware	43.8	32.7	29.3	25.0	26.7	-74	4	5	507
B.J. McLeod	39.1	31.0	31.3	28.7	29.7	-51	6	0	498

Betting Targets

While I have put a heavy emphasis on analytics this week, the value in the betting odds for each driver will also have some influence in our final picks this week. Ultimately, I want to have value on my betting card to maximize my ROI potential. As a result, the analytic trends are just an indicator of those drivers that have a higher likelihood of making our betting cards this week if given decent value. With all those things in mind and adding current odds to the equation, I am mainly targeting a list of names that include Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Cole Custer, Erik Jones, and Noah Gragson are the names that I am targeting.

If you recall my Daytona 500 preview, I advised bettors the value on Blaney and Logano was just too good to ignore. Currently, both drivers are getting 11 to 1 odds which is an absolute steal for two of the best superspeedway talents in the field. Meanwhile, Cole Custer and Erik Jones are the lower-tier names that will be keeping on my radar in all betting formats. Jones has been one of the highest running drivers through the earlier superspeedway races this year at Daytona and Atlanta, yet is getting enormous 66 to 1 odds. While Custer is not getting that type of value, he remains a promising threat among the guys in the intermediate betting odds range. Along with Jones, Noah Gragson is my other favorite target for some low risk/high reward prop style bets. Gragson is getting enormous 150 to 1 odds which I think is completely disrespectful compared to Gragson’s talent. I understand Gragson’s will not be driving for a top team this week but this Next Gen Car is about as equal as you will ever see in the Cup Series. As a result, we can take some confident low risk/high reward style props based on Gragson’s current betting odds.

Based on current odds, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Justin Haley, and Corey LaJoie are additional names that I believe will outrun their betting value this week. Haley and Lajoie are excellent dark horse prop options just like Gragson. Meanwhile, Byron, Reddick, and Stenhouse are names that I would consider more likely to pull out a victory. Reddick’s superspeedway value is largely unknown at this point in his career but he has very good superspeedway skills. I consider Reddick and Byron two of the more underrated superspeedway talents in the entire field. For that reason, we can keep both of those drivers in our line of sight this week as well.

Draftkings GEICO 500 Optimal Lineup

2022 GEICO 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1100 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1200 (1 unit)
Alex Bowman +2200 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +3300 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +4000 (.25 unit)
Daniel Suarez +6600 (.25 unit)
Erik Jones +6600 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Important Note: There is a lot of realistic value in prop bets this week with some great odds especially on the extreme long shot trifectas. As a result, I am going to sprinkle some extra prop bets into my lineup this week in hopes for a lottery style winner. All odds listed below are courtesy of BOVADA

Ty Dillon +250 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +650 finishes Top Toyota (1 unit)
Cole Custer +1000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +2000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Denny Hamlin to be Top Toyota, Joey Logano to be Top Ford, and Kyle Larson to be Top Chevrolet +12500 (.25 unit)
Christopher Bell to be Top Toyota, Ryan Blaney to be Top Ford, and William Byron to be Top Chevrolet +20000 (.25 unit)