2022 FR8 208 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 19th, 2022. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

The Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series will feature an intriguing double header on Saturday at the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway. Over the years, Atlanta Motor Speedway has been known for its rugged surface which produces low-grip racing conditions combined with significant tire wear. However, the newly designed Atlanta Motor Speedway will provoke a paradox compared to its former identity. The newly repaved surface and increased 28 degree banking will provide a “superspeedway” feel for the first time at an intermediate size track.

To make matters even more interesting, all practice sessions scheduled for Friday were canceled as the result of rain. Therefore, teams will be going into Saturday with limited preparation. Fortunately, qualifying sessions were canceled for all series and replaced with newly scheduled practice times on Saturday. Therefore, everyone should have an opportunity for on-track activities on Saturday barring any further intervention from Mother Nature.

I mentioned earlier this week that practice observations would be important mainly to identify the type of racing that we should expect at Atlanta this week. For the Truck Series and the running of the FR8 208, I believe our expectations are clear. Truck Series competition is often nearly full throttle at the 1.5 mile venues with sufficient grip and I would imagine this will be a full-throttle style race that heavily favors raw speed with some drafting nuances. I am not expecting the “pack” style superspeedway racing that fans experience at Daytona and Talladega. The racing groove is much narrower meaning Saturday’s Truck Series race will be a game of raw speed, track position, and capitalizing on aero movements from the driver seat.

Betting Strategy

Though I have a few expectations that I believe will lead to advantage plays, I must state the obvious surrounding the fact that new venues are often not friendly towards bettors. Without historical narratives or even the most clear understanding of the type of racing that we can expect, we have an extra element of inherited risk. Therefore for this race among others this weekend, our overall risk amount per race will be downsized to a certain degree. Like the superspeedway events, we will put a heavier emphasis on overall value this week to ensure the ROI suffices the risk of this new Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Betting Targets

For handicapping purposes prior to practices, our betting focus should be organizational based to narrow our focus towards the fastest teams/drivers from an equipment standpoint. Unlike the growing parity from team to team in the Cup Series, the lower series still have some significant gaps in the equipment department which can be exploited at these raw speed venues. With that thought in mind, the obvious choices going into Saturday start and stop around the Kyle Busch Motorsports’ trucks of John Hunter Nemechek, Chandler Smith, and Corey Heim. Nemechek dominated most of the bigger venues in 2021 and Smith took a big step forward with his victory at Las Vegas in the Truck Series’ last event. Heim may not have the appropriate experience to be thrown in that top tier category but the KBM trucks have been especially strong at the fastest 1.5 mile layouts which is something that cannot be ignored.

Aside from the well-known options, I would tailor some sharp attention to the David Gilliland Racing duo of Tanner Gray and Ryan Preece. Preece has been really solid in his limited amount of Truck Series’ competition and also has a victory at Nashville on his resume from last year. Meanwhile, Gray is the less decorated betting target this weekend with perhaps the most upside. Gray has finished in the top 5 in both of his starts this season and has finished in the top 5 in 3 of his last 4 starts going back to 2021. Team DGR has displayed improved speed throughout the 2nd half of 2021 and coming into the new season. For that reason, I am high on the duo of Gray and Preece especially in H2H formats.

For outright win bets, Zane Smith and Ross Chastain are other drivers that are worthy of notable mentions. Smith is likely going to be a bigger threat throughout the entire season meanwhile Chastain is making a part-time start for Niece Motorsports. I’m not exactly a big fan of Niece Motorsports in terms of performance but Chastain has a raw driving style that can excel with mediocre equipment especially at a track where lifting will be optional. Further down the step ladder, I have my eyesight also on the young talents of Carson Hocevar and Christian Eckes as potential lottery winners. Hocevar was very impressive at Las Vegas and Eckes has been riding a lot of momentum since his victory at Vegas last fall. Both drivers are worthy of dark horse potential especially if strategy comes into play in the final laps.

Practice Observations

*Update: Saturday’s practice just concluded for the FR8 208 at Atlanta. For what it’s worth, there were various strategies to consider when looking at the speed charts. There were some drivers than ran a handful of laps compared to others that ran several. Additionally, there were also some drivers who were aided by drafting on the stopwatch.

With those things in mind, I am still confident in the Team DGR duo of Ryan Preece and Tanner Gray. Both trucks had speed and I believe they will be a factor. Also, Tyler Ankrum finally showed up on the speed charts. I have been a big preseason advocate of Ankrum’s chances of taking a step forward this season with the #16 team. After two disappointing starts to the season, Ankrum finally appears to have some solid speed.

Additional notes include guys like Ben Rhodes and Zane Smith also looked very competitive on the time sheet. I would also throw out names like Derek Kraus and Jack Wood who appeared to be much better than pre-practice expectations. On the other end of the spectrum, John Hunter Nemechek, the overall favorite, was nowhere to be seen among the top 15 times. I was also least impressed with guys like Grant Enfinger and Christian Eckes in terms of practice speeds. However, keep in mind that practice speeds should be given a very minimal portion of consideration for compiling betting picks for this event.

Draftkings FR8 208 Optimal Lineup

2022 FR8 208 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Preece +900 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +1200 (.75 unit)
Zane Smith +1200 (.75 unit)
Tyler Ankrum +2500 (.5 unit)
Tanner Gray +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Ryan Preece -110 over Grant Enfinger (3 units)
Tanner Gray -115 over Colby Howard (2 units)
Jack Wood -115 over Jordan Anderson (2 units)
Tanner Gray +500 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)