2022 Food City Dirt Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 17th, 2022. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway Dirt
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will make its anticipated return to the dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend with the running of the Food City Dirt Race. Last year, Joey Logano won the inaugural race on dirt marking the first time Cup Series cars had competed on a dirt surface since 1970. On Sunday, the Cup Series will wave the green flag for another spectacle on dirt and this time it will be with the Next Gen Car that has produced 7 different winners through 8 races. Needless to say, Sunday’s return to dirt should be an intriguing spectacle especially in this year’s format which will be under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Earlier today, Cup Series teams participated in two practice sessions and racing action will continue Saturday with heat races which will officially set the starting lineup for Sunday. Going into Saturday’s heat races, our expectations will be based on numerous factors which includes today’s practice notes, last year’s Food City Dirt Race, performance trends with the Next Gen Car, and how all that intertwines for Sunday’s main event. Before we start outlining expectations, I would like to mention that track conditions will change throughout the weekend and that is a big factor related to dirt racing.

In today’s later sessions between the Trucks and Cup Series, we saw the bottom groove start to open up. While the top groove remains the fastest line, it will be interesting to see how things change throughout the weekend. I actually expect the cushion at the top of the track to slowly dissipate which means we may see cars all the way to the outside wall similar to racing we witnessed in the early days with the trucks at Eldora. Therefore, I’m just throwing out the idea that the racing may change as we progress through the weekend. For that reason, I would advise bettors to be cautious with practice observations and pay close attention to how things change going into Saturday’s activities.

Handicapping Strategy

The reason I am posting this preview a little early this weekend is because I believe bettors can take advantage of the format this weekend and perhaps steal some value before Saturday’s heat races. For example, there may be certain dark horses that receive a good draw in the heat races. Because of that reason, it may be advantageous to go ahead and lock those drivers into our lineups as their odds are more likely to lose value closer to race time. It may be the exact opposite for other drivers like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and others who will be starting towards the rear of their heat races. With the potential of a less optimal starting position, those drivers’ betting odds could get better before Sunday’s green flag.

Practice Observations

In today’s practice sessions, Tyler Reddick posted the fastest lap in the opening session at 89.924mph. The opening practice sported much faster lap times than the 2nd practice. However, I would say that the 2nd practice session more closely favored expected race conditions. In that session, Denny Hamlin laid down the fastest lap with a speed of 87.218mph while JGR teammates Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell also posted top 5 single lap speeds. While speeds differed greatly throughout both sessions, Kyle Busch definitely looked like the most consistent frontrunner. I took Rowdy in last year’s dirt race despite the fact he was overlooked by many. Busch led several laps early in last year’s race but ultimately succumbed to overheating issues. Despite last year’s result, I still believe Rowdy is one of the elite talents despite relatively underwhelming performance with the Next Gen Car. Could this be the breakout style of racing Rowdy needs? That is the million dollar question.

In totality, I thought Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson displayed the best speeds in practices. Reddick was super fast short run speed while guys like Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano displayed really strong speed from a lap by lap consistency standpoint. Personally, I thought Larson’s lap times were the best overall but Blaney and Logano were pretty strong as well. In terms of outright surprising notes, Todd Gilliland, Austin Dillon, and Aric Almirola were among the names that looked really solid today in both practices. Personally, I did not have Dillon nor Almirola on my radar this week despite the fact Dillon has won a truck race on dirt. However, both drivers looked really solid on the stopwatch. For Gilliland, I have had him pegged on my radar all week especially if I can find some value in prop bets. Gilliland showed some of his raw talent in both practices which only strengthens the argument for the #38 car.

Betting Targets

Though I will likely not have Kyle Larson on my lineup this week because his odds are too low, Larson remains the top threat going into Sunday’s main event. Larson is arguably one of the best dirt track talents in the world and has been on fire since joining Hendrick Motorsports. While the equipment will not be as big of a factor in this year’s race, Larson talent on dirt remains undeniable and he is the #1 favorite for the right reasons. Personally, I am hoping Larson has a mediocre performance in the heat races and we can get some extra value. If we happen to get some better odds, he will come back into consideration.

Outside of Larson, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney are the names that I believe hold some sharp value. Reddick may not have the value that I expected but he remains a top-tier style favorite going into Saturday. For Bell and Blaney, both drivers drew less than average starting spots for their heat races so it may take time before we see them emerge at the front. However, I feel confident that both drivers will eventually make their way to the front of the field. Blaney has been fast everywhere this season and was top 5 throughout the majority of last year’s dirt race. After showing excellent long-run speed, I think Blaney deserves the nod of confidence. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell is probably one of the more overlooked drivers this week and I’m not sure why. Bell is an excellent dirt talent with many prestigious trophies and was running in 2nd last year before he was involved in an accident that ruined his day. Still if we are going to talk about big time threats for this type of race, Bell has to be in the conversation.

In terms of dark horses and drivers that I am targeting specifically in H2H/prop bet formats, I would say that Todd Gilliland is at the top of the list. Gilliland will start P1 in the opening heat race which means he has the potential for a strong starting spot barring misfortune. Gilliland is considered a bottom-tier talent therefore we are getting good odds and optimal pairings in H2H formats. Additional drivers that I believe deserve betting attention include the likes of Austin Dillon and Brad Keselowski are names that I have on my H2H radar. Both Dillon and Keselowski looked really strong in both practices. While Dillon suffered some damage after hitting a spinning car, he was already designated to start in the back of his heat. Either way, both Dillon and Keselowski have higher ceilings than normal this week and that is all we need considering the caliber of drivers that are paired against both drivers this week.

Draftkings Food City Dirt Race Optimal Lineup

2022 Food City Dirt Race Picks

*Final*

Christopher Bell +850 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1200 (.5 unit)
William Byron +1600 (.5 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1800 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Briscoe -125 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Justin Haley +125 finishes Top 10 (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +250 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +250 Group D Winner (A. Dillon, Wallace, Ku. Busch) (1 unit)
Bubba Wallace +1200 Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick finishes as Top Chevrolet/Christopher Bell finishes as Top Toyota +1100 (.5 unit)