2022 Food City 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday September 16th, 2022. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: USA

Following a strong betting effort on Thursday in the UNOH 200 for the Truck Series which netted 8 units, our betting focus now switches to the Xfinity Series which will take center stage Friday night for the running of the Food City 300 at Bristol Motor Speedway. Unlike NASCAR’s other touring series which have already kicked off playoff racing, Friday’s Food City 300 will be the final race in the Xfinity Series’ regular season and will finalize the 12 drivers that will move forward to fight for a championship over the next several weeks.

So far this season, it has been a battle of dominance between Noah Gragson and Ty Gibbs who have both captured 5 victories on the year. Gragson has caught fire in recent weeks with back to back wins at Darlington and Kansas. While Gragson and Gibbs have clearly created a two-horse race for dominance in the series, the playoff format is unforgiving and guys like AJ Allmendinger (3 wins), Justin Allgaier (3 wins), and others are more than capable of making a late season charge. Before we can start making any Xfinity Series’ playoff predictions, we must first turn our focus to this Friday night’s race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

It has been a full year since the Xfinity Series last competed at Bristol Motor Speedway. In last year’s race, AJ Allmendinger stole a victory on the final restart to score his first victory at Bristol. Allmendinger’s pass on the last lap was the only lap he led for the entire event and just shows how important late race restarts can be. In fact, these Xfinity Series races at Bristol have often come down to late race restarts and that is something bettors should keep in mind this weekend. The good news for bettors is that Bristol can be a good handicapping venue if we properly manage our risk and avoid misfortune. For short-track betting, you typically want to minimize the amount of overall bets and focus on the sharp value. It’s very much a quality over quantity betting strategy for short tracks like Bristol which can breed chaos.

Betting Quick Notes

Similar to the Truck Series format on Thursday, Xfinity Series’ teams and drivers will not hit the track until later Friday afternoon, just a few hours before race time. As a result, this will give bettors a tight window to make late betting predictions after on-track activities conclude. Therefore, I would advise all of our readers to keep checking back until the “final” status is displayed because there may be some late additions following qualifying. I leaned on practice and qualifying results more than usual in last night’s UNOH 200 because the Truck Series has not competed at any similar short tracks. While the Xfinity Series has competed at comparable venues like Dover, Bristol is still an anomaly in the handicapping world. As a result, I will once again lean on observations from practice and qualifying before finalizing our betting card.

Potential Betting Targets

While cars will not hit the track until later on Friday, let’s still discuss our expectations based on where they currently stand. First and foremost, Noah Gragson and AJ Allmendinger are the only former winners at Bristol that will be competing Friday night. With no Cup Series drivers showing on the entry list, there should not be any x factors to consider from the part-time drivers pool either. While Gragson and Allmendinger are the only former winners, I would make the argument that Justin Allgaier has easily been the best driver on the short-tracks this season. Allgaier has 3 wins this season which include a victory at Loudon and a runner-up finish at Dover which is the most comparable venue to Bristol. As a result, I think Allgaier is worthy of overall favorite potential regardless of how Friday’s sessions unfold.

Obviously the likes of Gragson, Gibbs, Allmendinger, and the short-track prestigious talent of Josh Berry are other guys that cannot be ignored. Though quiet in recent weeks, Berry won back at Dover and is notoriously strong on the short-tracks where he spent most of his career before NASCAR. However as bettors are aware, we are not going to find value in any of the names above because they are established favorites. For sharp H2H match-ups and dark horses, let me point everyone in the direction of Sam Mayer and Brandon Jones. Jones has posted triple digit average ratings in 3 of his last 4 starts at Bristol which includes top 5 finishes in 2 of the last 3 starts. To be clear, I have never been a huge fan of Jones’ talent but he does have some sneaky value at a place like Bristol.

Meanwhile, Mayer is easily the sharpest pick of the week. Mayer came from nowhere to win his first Truck race at Bristol in 2020 and he has won multiple races at Bristol in both the ARCA and K&N Series as well. Mayer led 49 laps in this race last year while making a part-time start for J.R. Motorsports and after a full year of experience; I feel like this is an excellent opportunity for Mayer to have another strong performance and perhaps even challenge for a victory. Mayer can be targeted in all betting formats where I would lean towards only target Jones in strictly H2H formats. Other drivers also worthy of H2H match-up/fantasy consideration further down the totem pole include the likes of Sheldon Creed and Jeremy Clements (6 straight finishes of 13th or better at Bristol).

Practice Observations and Final Thoughts

Update: Xfinity Series practice and qualifying just concluded at Bristol Motor Speedway. At the end of both sessions, Ty Gibbs emerged from the field as the apparent car to beat. Gibbs posted the fastest lap in practice and backed it up with a pole winning qualifying lap at 122.584mph. The young phenom also showed excellent race pace in practice by securing the fastest 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages for a clean sweep across all major categories. As a result, I definitely believe it is safe to say that Gibbs holds an advantage going into the evening.

For bettors, I would remind everyone that a lot can change at Bristol and 20 laps is still a relatively short-run from what we may see later this evening. With track position being additionally critical, there will be other drivers capable of pulling out the win tonight. Aside from Gibbs who showed dominant lap times, I would say that Sam Mayer and Brandon Jones were also solid on the longer 10-20 lap metrics. While he did not show up on many of the consecutive average metrics, I would also make mention of Justin Allgaier who had really good speed throughout practice as well. As a stated in the preview, Allgaier has been excellent at the short tracks this year and he typically races better than he practices as well. Other names that also exceeded expectations from a practice standpoint include the likes of Sammy Smith (last night’s ARCA winner) and Ryan Sieg.

Draftkings Food City 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Food City 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +250 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +1200 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Sam Mayer -110 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Sheldon Creed -125 over Sammy Smith (2 units)
Daniel Hemric +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)