2022 Firekeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday August 7th, 2022. 3:15PM (EST)
Where: Michigan International Speedway
TV: USA

On Sunday, the Cup Series will debut the Next Gen Car at Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Firekeepers Casino 400. While the dazzle of the Next Gen Car has faded since the start of the season, it’s worth noting the importance of Sunday’s return to Michigan which will feature the fastest speeds produced by the Next Gen Car this season. Therefore, there are a lot of intriguing narratives to see how this car will impact the racing at Michigan and perhaps even renew the discussion around the safety of the new car which has been in question at points throughout the year. Needless to say, Sunday’s Firekeepers Casino 400 will be an intriguing race from many different aspects.

Earlier today, Bubba Wallace earned his 1st career pole with a fast lap of 190.703mph to capture the Busch Pole Award. Wallace’s fast lap was the fastest lap turned by the Next Gen Car in qualifying this season by a relatively wide margin which has to be a feather in the cap for Wallace who has shown considerable improvement throughout the season. While Wallace paved the way for the top time in qualifying, all of the Toyotas showed strong speed. In fact, all 4 drivers from the Joe Gibbs Racing brigade qualified in the top 10 which included Christopher Bell (2nd) and Kyle Busch (3rd) who were immediately behind Wallace on the speed charts. Therefore the Toyotas appear to have the momentum, in the speed department, going into Sunday’s race.

While Toyotas have an apparent speed edge, Michigan is still somewhat of a wildcard for handicapping and betting. The wide 2.0 mile surface is extremely fast and yields minimal tire wear. As a result, fuel and tire strategy often come into play because track position is extremely important. As I stated in the Xfinity Series preview, the fastest car rarely gets to victory lane because the battle of track position and pit strategy needs to be executed to perfection. If you just look at Saturday’s New Holland 250, Noah Gragson and Josh Berry were the two fastest cars in the field. Berry was hit with a speeding penalty at the beginning of stage 3 and Gragson’s team did not execute the optimal strategy. As a result, Ty Gibbs was able to seal yet another victory. In this new era of parity in the Cup Series, we could see a lot of “comers and goers” on Sunday based on the strategy calls on pit road.

Handicapping Strategy

Due to the volatility of track position and the unpredictable nature of pit road strategy, bettors should approach Sunday’s Firekeepers Casino 400 with extreme caution. Typically, Michigan has been a difficult race to predict winners and most betting value can be found in the way of H2H match-ups. I expect that narrative to be true yet again on Sunday. Another important factor that will make handicapping somewhat difficult for Sunday surrounds the fact that Michigan is one of those unique venues that does not compare closely to other tracks on the Cup Series schedule. I know a lot of people like to compare Michigan to Auto Club Speedway (Fontana) because they are both 2 mile ovals, however both tracks are very different in their composite surfaces and how drivers race each venue behind the wheel. Therefore, I don’t really like to compare Michigan to other tracks but perhaps will look at other larger venues where raw speed is important because ultimately Michigan is all about speed.

Practice Observations

As I alluded to earlier, practice observations can be centered around the Toyota teams who flexed their muscles in Saturday’s brief practice session. Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex were among the top drivers in overall averages. Hamlin actually led nearly every category with the fastest 5, 10, and 15 lap averages. However, the difference between Hamlin and many of the other Toyotas was minimal which means all of the Toyotas have improving stock going into Sunday. Other drivers that were trending in the right direction included Aric Almirola, Daniel Suarez, and even Kevin Harvick. Though to be fair, I’m not sure how much I trust those drivers on practice speeds alone.

Harvick has a lucrative 5.9 average finish at Michigan over the last 10 races and while he may not be performing at the level seen in previous seasons; the #4 team is among those that must get a victory to get into the playoffs and crew chief Rodney Childers will gamble with strategy if he gets the opportunity. On the other side of the fence, there were a number of guys that did not necessarily impress in practice and they were mostly among the Chevy teams. Ross Chastain and William Byron were a couple of notable drivers that many would expect to contend on Sunday but were relatively far down the speed charts. Both drivers were accompanied by several Chevy teams that appeared to be lacking in speed but it will be interesting to see if that is by design and if those teams will race better than perhaps the single car speed may suggest.

Betting Targets

Two weeks ago, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch were disqualified after finishing 1-2 at Pocono in a rare and surprising chain of events. Based on today’s practice speeds combined with historical trends, I feel like Sunday’s Firekeepers Casino 400 will be an excellent opportunity for both drivers to bounce back in a big way. As mentioned earlier, Hamlin appeared to have the fastest car in practice and he has two runner-up finishes in his last 4 starts at Michigan. Meanwhile, Busch has not finished worse than 7th in his last 7 starts at Michigan so we know “Rowdy” traditionally gets the best of his equipment. Therefore if the Toyotas do indeed have an advantage, Busch’s chances would appear to be really good.

One of the Toyotas that is going under the radar is Ty Gibbs who is replacing Kurt Busch for the 3rd straight week. While Gibbs has not been overly impressive in his first two starts, he did show considerable improvement from Pocono to Indianapolis which likely suggest he is getting more comfortable in the Next Gen Car. Gibbs was among the faster cars in practice on Saturday but was overshadowed by the speed of his teammates. However, Gibbs could provide some upside in H2H match-ups and perhaps offer some value in potential prop bets as well. Personally, I think this is a great venue for Gibbs’ driving style and I would be willing to beat that the #45 team’s expectations are much higher this week.

In recent weeks, I have put heavier focus towards targeting middle to bottom tier drivers in H2H match-ups because the top 10-12 guys are so close on a week to week basis with this car. I believe that strategy is worth keeping on the radar for the remainder of the season but I don’t necessarily have many dark horses or sleepers that I am confident in for Sunday’s Firekeepers Casino 400. If I had to guess, I would probably point towards Aric Almirola and Daniel Suarez as potential options. Both guys have posted multiple solid performances at Michigan and showed positive signs in Saturday’s practice. However, those are not highly confident selections, for H2H match-ups, by any stretch of the imagination.

Draftkings Firekeepers Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 Firekeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +650 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +800 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1000 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1400 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -130 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Ty Gibbs -120 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Ty Dillon -110 over Todd Gilliland (2 units)
Aric Almirola +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +350 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Harvick +360 wins Group D (Wallace, Suarez, Jones) (1 unit)