2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday August 14th, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Richmond Raceway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s best will go racing at Richmond Raceway on Sunday for the running of the Federated Auto Parts 400. Last week, Kevin Harvick shook up the playoff race with an upset style victory at Michigan and luckily helped us cash a 25-1 betting ticket. With Harvick’s latest win, there are officially 15 drivers that have secured their playoff fate which leaves just one spot in the playoffs. Currently, Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex are fighting for that spot which could be decided by points. However, there are several other drivers looking to deliver another upset style victory and secure that final playoff position.

Back in April, Denny Hamlin won the first stop at Richmond in the Toyota Owners 400. For those that remember, Hamlin essentially came out of nowhere in the closing laps to win the race. Martin Truex was trying to chase down William Byron who both attempted various pit strategies on the final green flag run. As it appeared that Truex would catch Byron, Hamlin and Kevin Harvick rallied from a 4-tire strategy to take over the top two spots in the closing laps. While the spring race holds little importance to Sunday’s event, it is worth mentioning the various strategies that came into play back in the spring. The reason is because tire wear is extremely important at Richmond. Despite being just a .75 mile oval, lap times will fall off 2-3 seconds over the course of a green flag run and that will open the door for strategy yet again on Sunday especially for those drivers desperately trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat for a playoff position.

On Saturday, Kyle Larson won the Busch Pole Award with a fast lap of 117.177mph. Larson edged out Ross Chastain for the top position. Despite being the reigning champion, Larson’s fast lap today was just the #5 teams’ 2nd pole of the season and they are still winless since the 2nd race of the season at Fontana. Larson is a former Richmond winner, coming back in 2017, and could desperately use another victory to get the team back into that championship rhythm that we witnessed during the 2020 season. Obviously the Next Gen Car has taken some of the domination out of the top teams/drivers but I think everyone is relatively surprised that Larson has just 1 victory this season and it will be interesting to see if the team can return to championship form over the next few weeks.

Handicapping Strategy

Our Truck Series picks had a pretty successful night on Saturday and I think it is worth reiterating our strategy this week. I do believe historical narratives can hold some weight because there is an art to saving tires. More importantly, Richmond typically produces more green flag runs that most people expect for a short track. For that reason, we can usually put some extra confidence in our betting picks as this style of racing favors handicapping. Obviously the Next Gen Car is still somewhat unpredictable but I do believe bettors can find solace in H2H match-ups while sprinkling some win (futures) bets around as well.

Richmond Fast Facts

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 6 career victories at Richmond
• Denny Hamlin has the best average finishing position (5.2) among all active drivers over the last 10 races at Richmond
• Martin Truex has won 3 of the last 6 races at Richmond
• Christopher Bell has finished 6th or better in 3 of 4 career starts at Richmond
• Joey Logano has finished in the Top 5 in 8 of the last 10 races at Richmond
• Austin Dillon has finished 11th or better in 6 of the last 7 starts at Richmond
• There have been 5 cautions or less in each of the last 7 races at Richmond

Practice Observations

In Saturday’s practice session, I thought Ross Chastain showed the most raw speed off the truck. Chastain was pretty solid in the spring race despite not getting the finish to show for it. However after showing speed in practice and backing it up with a 2nd place qualifying effort, Chastain has emerged as a legitimate betting favorite. Behind Chastain, I was most impressed with the likes of Aric Almirola and Chase Elliott in terms of lap times. Almirola has always run well at Richmond and should benefit from the new package. Despite the performance concerns at Stewart-Haas Racing, Almirola was among the fastest cars in race trim, especially on the long-run. Speaking of long run speed, Elliott, Martin Truex, and Hamlin were all very close in terms of long-run speed which means all of those drivers are within striking distance.

Among other observations, Harrison Burton and Austin Cindric caught my eyes as rookies that had more speed than most would expect. Burton got his best career finish (3rd) a few weeks ago at Indy and while that stat has no bearing on Sunday; the #21 car did look good off the truck. On the other side of the observation perspective, there were some other drivers that were underwhelming based on expectations. Kyle Busch, William Byron, and Christopher Bell were some drivers that were really strong in the spring race but did not look sharp in practice. While practice does not always reflect race speed, I must admit that I thought those guys would look better on the speed charts.

Betting Targets

Despite practice observations, Martin Truex and Denny Hamlin’s recent performance at Richmond over the last few years, including the spring race, have just been too strong to ignore. I would thoroughly expect both drivers to be in the mix on Sunday and if we are being honest; crew chief James Small blew the strategy call for Truex in the spring which cost the team the race. I expect the #19 team to be on their game on Sunday with playoff implications on the line and I think Truex will be among the cars to beat with Hamlin and Ross Chastain.

In terms of betting targets for the outright win, I am gravitating towards the better value options like Ross Chastin (+750), Christopher Bell (+1200), and even Joey Logano (+2000) as solid betting options for the outright win. Bell and Logano have an excellent track record at Richmond which cannot be ignored despite any practice or qualifying results. Meanwhile, Chastain is getting the best value among the favorites despite having the fastest car in practice. While I would love to have Truex or Hamlin on my lineup, I just don’t like the mere 5-1 odds both drivers are getting at most books.

In terms of H2H options, I am all over guys like Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, and Chase Elliott as sharp targets. I have not mentioned Jones yet in this preview but he deserves betting consideration on a damn near weekly basis in terms of H2H match-ups. The #43 team has been really good this season despite the equipment concerns and crew chief Dave Elenz deserves a ton of credit. After another under the radar 9th place qualifying effort, Jones still has tremendous upside based on the drivers currently in his odds range. Meanwhile, Almirola and Elliott are a few drivers that struggled in qualifying but I am not giving up on either option. Both drivers have shown speed this weekend and in recent races at Richmond. Therefore, I think they can be targeted confidently in both betting and fantasy formats to produce value.

Draftkings Federated Auto Parts 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +500 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +750 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1200 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Joey Logano -110 over Bubba Wallace (3 units)
Ross Chastain -145 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Erik Jones -110 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Aric Almirola +520 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +240 wins Group F (Bowman, Reddick, Wallace)(1 unit)