2022 Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 23rd, 2022. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Pocono Raceway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to take center stage at the Tricky Triangle late Saturday afternoon with the running of the Explore The Pocono Mountains 225. While the Truck Series will kick off the afternoon at Pocono, the Xfinity Series will be the closing act in Saturday’s double header and will provide yet another opportunity for bettors. Earlier this morning, Xfinity Series’ teams and drivers had the opportunity to participate in practice and qualifying sessions to provide the first glimpse of on-track activity of the weekend. With those sessions in the books, we can now discuss expectations and outline some betting advice for the Explore The Pocono Mountains 225!

Before we discuss today’s on-track activities and handicapping predictions, I would first like to point out that the entry list for this afternoon’s race is very intriguing. Alongside the Xfinity Series regulars, Cup Series’ veterans Cole Custer and Ricky Stenhouse Jr will make rare appearances this afternoon and will be expected contenders at the front of the field. Meanwhile, other part-time drivers include the likes of Sammy Smith, Rajah Caruth, Santino Ferruci, and others. Needless to say, there will be plenty of part-time driver opportunities to keep on the radar and perhaps some of those drivers could yield betting opportunities as well.

Despite popular belief, the Xfinity Series just recently started racing at Pocono. Despite the fact the Cup Series has been racing at Pocono annually since the 1970s, the Xfinity Series has only conducted 6 races at Pocono since 2016. In fact, all former Xfinity Series winners at Pocono are currently racing in the Cup Series which includes Cole Custer who will making his 4th start of the season in the #07 car. In 3 starts this season, Custer has a win (Fontana), 3rd place finish (Circuit of the Americas), and crashed out at Road America. Not only has Custer been strong in prior appearances but he is also the only former winner in Saturday’s field. Custer won the 2019 Xfinity Series event at Pocono and could easily be considered the most talented driver in Saturday’s field with the exception of Ty Gibbs. As a result, Custer is justifiably listed among today’s overall favorites as he seeks his 2nd career win at the Tricky Triangle.

Xfinity Series Fast Facts for Pocono

• Cole Custer is the only former winner in Saturday’s field.
• Ford Manufacturers have won 4 of the last 5 Xfinity Series races at Pocono.
• Jeremy Clements has an impressive Pocono resume which includes finishes of 17th or better in the last 5 races and a 3rd place finish in 2020.
• Justin Allgaier has +110 average driver ratings in 4 of the last 5 races at Pocono. Allgaier has also won at least one stage in each of the last 3 races at Pocono.
• Ty Gibbs finished 2nd in his only career start at Pocono last season.
• Brandon Jones has finished outside the top 20 in 4 of the last 5 races at Pocono.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Earlier this morning, Justin Allgaier won the pole for today’s Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 with a fast lap of 168.669mph. Allgaier edged out Ty Gibbs for the top spot however it was not that surprising that both Allgaier and Gibbs were the fastest cars during impound qualifying. In practice which preceded qualifying, Allgaier and Gibbs were the class of the competition by a seemingly healthy margin. Gibbs led all drivers with the fastest 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. Allgaier posted the best 5 lap average but also looked very solid on the long run. Therefore, both drivers appear to be frontrunners going into this afternoon’s race.

Aside from a clear separation among the top two drivers in terms of practice, I also was impressed by the speed from Brandon Jones and Ryan Sieg. I have mentioned Sieg’s name several times in the last few weeks but the #39 team continues to bring strong speed on a weekly basis. As a result, bettors should take notice because Sieg continues to be paired against bottom-tier talent. On the other side of the spectrum, guys like Noah Gragson, Cole Custer, and most of the Kaulig Racing cars were among the teams that did not impress in Saturday’s brief practice session. Kaulig Racing is an interesting observation because the entire team has mirrored each other’s performance in recent weeks. Either all cars have been strong or all cars have been off. Could this be an “off” week for the Kaulig Racing brigade?

Betting Targets

Before this morning’s on-track activities, I had Justin Allgaier pegged as a dark horse but unfortunately that ship has sailed after Allgaier won the pole for today’s race. I don’t think bettors have to overthink things for this event. The field is chasing Gibbs and Allgaier and it’s just that simple. I’m sure the likes of Cole Custer, Noah Gragson, and perhaps Ricky Stenhouse Jr will get better as the afternoon unfolds, however I’m just not convinced any of those drivers have “winning” speed. If I had to pick another driver to emerge from that group, Gragson would be my pick based on JR. Motorsports speed this season and Gragson’s talent on the bigger layouts.

The best betting value for today’s Xfinity Series race will likely come in the form of H2H match-ups and/or prop bets. For starters, I will likely be looking for opportunities to fade the Kaulig Racing cars. I just have the feeling those cars are not on par with some of the top teams in terms of raw speed and Pocono is a place that will expose those vulnerabilities. For additional betting targets in H2H formats, Brandon Jones is an interesting option that should yield value in match-ups. Jones is a former Truck Series winner at Pocono and has shown excellent speed thus far this weekend. A few other guys that are higher on my radar this week include the likes of Ryan Sieg and Riley Herbst for intermediate to lower-tier style options. Both drivers have shown the raw speed needed at Pocono this year and have the experience to navigate the Tricky Triangle.

Draftkings Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 Optimal Lineup

2022 Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 Race Picks

*Final

Ty Gibbs +400 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +450 (1.5 units)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -125 over Cole Custer (3 units)
Ryan Sieg -110 over Brett Moffitt (3 units)
Brandon Jones -130 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)