2022 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 27th, 2022. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas
TV: FOX

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will get their first taste of road course racing with the Next Gen Car when the green flag waves for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. The Cup Series made their debut at COTA last season which resulted in a chaotic rain soaked event which led to a controversial finish that handed Chase Elliott another road course victory. Elliott has quickly become one of the best road course drivers in NASCAR history with 7 career road course victories. While Elliott has proven himself among NASCAR’s best road course talents, the Next Gen Car will likely bring new competitors into the mix on Sunday.

Unlike previous years where top teams typically dominated the road course events, the Next Gen Car will not provide the same level of variance this week. As a result drivers that have traditionally competed in poor equipment and who are strong road course talent have a much better opportunity to get into the thick of things on Sunday. I remember in previous years that Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex were nearly guaranteed to be the drivers competing for the wins at the road course venues. For Sunday’s return to COTA, nothing is guaranteed with this new car. As a result, we will put heavy focus towards H2H match-ups to exploit drivers that should benefit from the Next Gen Car at Circuit of the Americas.

Betting Strategy

As stated in prior previews this week, I believe H2H match-ups provide the most reliable betting options this week especially at the Cup Series level. The Cup Series has been relatively unpredictable this season with 5 different winners through the opening 5 races. Personally, I believe there is a strong possibility that streak continues this weekend and it could be a “surprise” name that pulls off the victory. Obviously, we will take some chances towards hitting a race winner this week but I am mostly focused on H2H match-ups and props. I simply think they yield the best opportunities this weekend, granted I lost two H2H match-ups in the Truck Series race on the last restart after dominating the entire race. There are some risks in the wild restarts at COTA in the realm of H2H match-ups but we can also identify the best value in H2H formats as well.

Practice Observations

Earlier today, Cup Series’ drivers participated in an hour long practice session which was divided into two groups at 30 minutes for each group. While that sounds long, lap times at COTA take over two minutes to complete therefore drivers only had enough time for a handful of laps. Perhaps that makes practice observations less effective but I will proceed with sharing my personal observations. At the end of both sessions, Kyle Busch had earned the fastest lap with a top speed of 92.681mph. Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman, Harrison Burton, and Tyler Reddick compiled a diverse set of names that rounded out the top 5.

From an observational standpoint, I thought Daniel Suarez and Alex Bowman were the most impressive in terms of pre-session betting odds. Bowman has never been known as a road course talent but was surprisingly within the top 5 with each lap posted. Bowman participated in the XPEL 225 earlier this afternoon and was battling Kyle Busch for the victory in the closing laps, so perhaps we give Bowman some credit for the fast times. Meanwhile, Daniel Suarez really impressed on the stopwatch in practice. Suarez posted the 2nd fastest overall time and backed that up with a strong 2nd place qualifying effort. As a result, Suarez gets a nod of confidence going into Sunday’s event.

Additional drivers that appeared to have strong times in just a handful of laps included the likes of Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and Ross Chastain. All 3 of those drivers have been fast on a weekly basis and while not necessarily known for being road course talents; I would not be surprised to see those drivers compete well at COTA. On the other side of the spectrum, I was surprised to see Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex relatively far down the speed charts. It is worth noting that Elliott was not fast in last year’s practice and even started the race poorly before rallying to a victory. Therefore, I don’t think practices rule out anyone by any stretch of the imagination. Still considering weather conditions were ideal, I expected to see better raw speeds out of some of the most notorious road course talents.

Betting Targets

In terms of betting targets, I have become seemingly tunnel visioned towards the TrackHouse Racing talents of Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain in all formats. Personally, I don’t believe either driver has been in situations to showcase their road course talents. Suarez had a short stint with Joe Gibbs Racing but he was brand new to the Cup Series and has shown a lot of improvement over the last two years. Chastain has been proving that he is a guy that deserves more attention on a weekly basis. Chastain has already posted 3 top 5 finishes this season and I thought he had one of the best performances at COTA last season. After struggling early, Chastain rallied to a 4th place finish in last year’s COTA debut and after getting some more laps in Saturday’s Pit Boss 250; I believe Chastain has the tools to play the spoiler role on Sunday.

For what it’s worth, I still expect Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott to make their way forward on Sunday. Both drivers are elite road course talents and will likely be fine in race conditions when race speed takes precedent. Unfortunately, there is just too much downside towards betting Elliott and Larson, at least in H2H formats. Other drivers that deserve some attention for potential betting options going into Sunday’s race include the likes of Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, and AJ Allmendinger. I believe all 3 of those drivers are excellent road course talents. Everyone is already aware of Allmendinger’s pedigree on the road course venues but Custer and Bell are better secrets. Both Custer and Bell qualified well on Saturday which likely hurts their H2H value. However, both drivers are strong options against other intermediate type drivers.

Betting Fades

I mentioned in yesterday’s Xfinity Series preview that I have rarely compiled “fade” lists this season mainly because of the learning curve around the Next Gen Car. However, I believe Sunday’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix will provide true fade options. Now that teams are on a more even playing field, we can use that information and pivot against drivers that have benefited most from strong equipment at these venues. Drivers that fit that category include the likes of Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex, and Denny Hamlin. Keselowski and Hamlin are sharp fades while Truex is another driver that is worthy of fade consideration if given the right match-ups!

Draftkings EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Optimal Lineup

2022 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +1200 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +2000 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2000 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2200 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Michael McDowell +100 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Ross Chastain -115 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Cole Custer -130 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Cole Custer +600 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Todd Gilliland +800 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +550 wins Group G (Larson, Hamlin, and Briscoe)(1 unit)