2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 1st, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Dover International Speedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will get the opportunity to battle for 400 miles at Dover International Speedway on Sunday with the running of the DuraMax Drydene 400. Historically, the Cup Series routinely visited the Monster Mile on multiple dates each season. With NASCAR’s schedule shakeup which added venues like Circuit of the Americas, Nashville, and Gateway, Sunday’s DuraMax Drydene 400 will be the only stop of 2022 at the Monster Mile meaning drivers have just one opportunity to tame Miles the Monster!

Personally, I have always enjoyed racing at Dover International Speedway however I can understand why the track may have lost their opportunity at multiple dates on the Cup Series schedule. Obviously track attendance and ratings play into the equation, however I would also say that these races at Dover may not always be the most “exciting” from the casual viewer. The reason for this is simple. Dover is a one-mile high banked short track that races like an intermediate speedway with high speeds. Because of the high speeds and narrow racing groove, track position is usually the name of the game. Additionally, the racing at Dover typically yields long green flag runs which may lose the interests of your most casual onlookers.

I believe these characteristics are advantageous for bettors. Dover International Speedway is one of those tracks that rarely gets decided by pit road strategy or some bizarre late race restart. If we can identify the correct drivers, especially those that have good long-run speed, then we can bet with confidence that there may be less volatility than most race weekends. After a wild and unpredictable few weeks on the dirt at Bristol and at Talladega, hopefully Sunday’s 400 miles at Dover is just what we need to get back into the winning column.

Handicapping Notes

In order to understand what it takes to excel at Dover, bettors should first understand the driving style that is needed to excel. In today’s Xfinity Series race, we saw some of the top Xfinity Series drivers like Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson, and AJ Allmendinger basically become non-factors all afternoon which is something I predicted solely based on those drivers’ driving styles. The drivers that rely on driving the car deep into the corner and manhandling the car off the corner will not run well at Dover because that driving style will often create a tight condition while also wearing out the right front. Instead, drivers will need a car that remains turning throughout the corner and stylistically this will play into the hands of drivers that are good with throttle control which is the style of driving you would typically see at places like Bristol and Darlington though I would bet that no other handicappers will ever make that connection.

As a result of the stylistic narratives, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr are the names that have routinely performed well at similar venues. However, the Next Gen Car has eliminated the advantage that some of those top names have historically held. For example, Harvick has been pretty bad this year and Truex has not been the same since crew chief James Small took over the pit box. It’s also worth noting that Kyle Larson (7.5) and Chase Elliott (10.5) have the best average finishing positions at Dover by a pretty wide gap. Both drivers are former Dover winners and Elliott has posted top 5 finishes in 8 of his 11 career starts at the Monster Mile. Meanwhile, Larson has finished 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in his last 3 starts at Dover.

While Elliott and Larson will be given some extra notions of confidence this week especially with the performance of Hendrick Motorsports, I also want to identify some of the less popular names that have performed well at Dover with far less stellar equipment that may have the opportunity to shine with the Next Gen Car this weekend. The drivers in that category belong to the likes of Cole Custer and Erik Jones. Custer had a great Xfinity Series career at the Monster Mile and has finished no worse than 11th in 3 career starts at Dover in the Cup Series. Meanwhile, Erik Jones is a driver that has strong average running position type stats but rarely has gotten the finishes to reflect the performance. I would also add that Jones nearly wrecked this morning during his qualifying run so he will be starting towards the rear of the field. However, I don’t think that should persuade anyone from not keeping Jones on their radar in the form of low-tier H2H match-ups.

Practice Notes

Earlier today, Cup Series teams’ held a brief 30 minute split practice session followed by qualifying which resulted in a present surprise in the form of Chris Buescher earning his 1st career pole with a lap of 160.149mph. Buescher kind of came out of nowhere in qualifying but I would reiterate the fact that race speed will be the ultimate performance measurement on Sunday over the course of 400 miles. The drivers that displayed the best “race” speed in practice surrounding the likes of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. I know I mentioned both of those names above and hope I am not being anti-climatic in my predictions this week. However, the Hendrick Motorsports cars look stout with the exception of William Byron who wrecked on the 1st lap of practice. Still, from an organizational standpoint the Hendrick Motorsports cars look strong and that plays right into the hands of two of the best Dover talents in the field.

For what it’s worth, I thought Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney were also strong on the speed charts. I would mention Kevin Harvick as well strictly from a practice standpoint. I just don’t know if I can trust Harvick at this point given his performance thus far in 2022. Admittedly, I was paying more attention to practice for handicapping nuggets that could steer us to find value in H2H match-ups. While I did not uncover any earth shattering new information, I would point out that the Kaulig Racing cars of AJ Allmendinger and Justin Haley brought some speed to the Monster Mile. Both Allmendinger and Haley are usually non-factors away from the road courses/superspeedways but they may provide some value in lower-tier H2H formats this week based on the speed both cars displayed in today’s on-track activities.

Betting Targets

In an effort to avoid repeating myself, I am obviously really high on both Elliott and Larson this week despite their underwhelming betting value. Simply put, I like all of the angles that I am putting on a pedestal this week which includes driving style, historical narratives, and early performance observations with the Next Gen Car. Based on current betting odds, I would say William Byron, Martin Truex, and Kevin Harvick are some of the names that are producing sufficient value to warrant betting consideration.

As stated earlier, we can make more confident picks this week which includes more units wagered. The only caveat is that we should ensure that we are pursuing the sharpest betting options and not just betting more units for mere exercise to bet. Among the drivers that I believe hold the sharpest value include the likes of Alex Bowman, William Bryon, and Brad Keselowski. For clarity, I think Bowman is worth consideration for the outright victory. With the way the Hendrick cars are performing combined with Bowman’s history at Dover which includes top 5 finishes in 4 of the last 5 races, Bowman deserves legitimate respect.

William Byron seems to be off everyone’s radar at least temporarily due to the struggles today on the opening lap. However, tomorrow is a new day and they have the resources to overcome the difficult start. For Byron and Keselowski, I believe both drivers provide substantial H2H value. Byron has seemingly been removed from everyone’s radar following the crash on the first lap of practice but he still has a high ceiling for Sunday. Meanwhile, Keselowski has moved considerably down the odds list after numerous struggles in recent week. While I personally believe Keselowski killed his career by moving to Roush-Fenway, Dover is the type of venue where he should be able to have a quality performance. Since Keselowski is so far down the odds list, I have him as a quality H2H option.

*I also have guys like Kevin Harvick, Justin Haley, and Cole Custer on my radar for potential prop bets. Since these are more risky options, I would encourage bettors to seek plus (+) value on those drivers if pursued.

Draftkings DuraMAX Drydene 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +500 (1.25 units)
Chase Elliott +600 (1.25 units)
Alex Bowman +1000 (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Chase Elliott -135 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Alex Bowman -135 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Austin Cindric finishes on lead lap (Even) (1 unit)
Erik Jones +300 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)