2022 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 8th, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
TV: NBC

NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series returns home to Charlotte this week for racing at the ROVAL in a pivotal race to conclude the Round of 12. Last week, AJ Allmendinger secured his place in the Round of 8 with a timely victory at Talladega Superspeedway which also ended Noah Gragson’s record tying streak of 4 straight victories. Allmendinger will be the driver on everyone’s radar again on Saturday for the strong fact that he has won the last 3 Xfinity Series races at the ROVAL combined with the fact Allmendinger has also dominated the road course races throughout the season.

At less than 2 to 1 betting odds, Allmendinger is rightfully an overwhelming favorite for Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250 at the ROVAL and undeniably the driver to beat this weekend. From a betting standpoint, Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs have saturated all of the oddsmakers’ attention due to their outstanding performances at the road course venues. As a result, there are some very appetizing betting odds for all of those drivers behind Allmendinger and Gibbs that could produce significant ROI if we dare to believe in any of the underdogs.

Handicapping Message

Personally, I enjoy the road course races because they are traditionally favorable for handicappers and bettors alike. However, I would caution my readers that additional factors should be taken into consideration this week before making any betting selections. Those additional factors surround the playoff battle and several drivers that will be trying to earn enough points to ensure their advancement into the Round of 8. As things currently stand, Noah Gragson and AJ Allmendinger are the only drivers locked into the Round of 8. While guys like Ty Gibbs and Austin Hill are also in good positions, I’m not sure if anyone outside of Gragson and Allmendinger can avoid aggressively racing for stage points.

The problem with racing for stage points at a road course is that it will not be the optimal strategy that will position drivers for a better chance at victory. Therefore, we know the majority of the playoff contenders will be going after stage points and likely starting further back at the beginning of each stage. As a result, we will likely see a selection of non-playoff drivers mixing it up towards the front of the field, especially at the start of stages 2 and 3. If applied correctly, we can use this knowledge as leverage in our bets this week especially in the realm of H2H match-ups.

Road Course Loop Data

I compiled loop data from all the road course races in the Xfinity Series this season which is shown in the table below. Obviously, AJ Allmendinger has been nothing short of incredible with a 122.8 driver rating which has resulted in 3 victories and a runner-up finish in 5 road course races this year. The only other winners outside of Allmendinger at the road courses this year include Ty Gibbs (Road America) and Kyle Larson (Watkins Glen). If you look at the loop data below, you will also see solid results from Noah Gragson and Austin Hill as well this season. Meanwhile, drivers like Kaz Grala, Alex Labbe, and Jeremy Clements have been among some of the less-known names that have shown the ability to mix things up towards the front of the field.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
A.J. Allmendinger	122.8	11.4	5.6	2.2	7.6	73	38	79	313
Ty Gibbs	112.2	2.6	14.0	11.6	9.4	-69	46	74	313
Noah Gragson	97.1	10.6	11.2	7.0	10.6	53	1	6	313
Austin Hill	94.5	7.4	14.4	9.6	13.2	-70	5	0	304
Sheldon Creed	85.5	9.0	5.8	20.0	13.6	-113	6	1	282
Brandon Jones	83.8	24.4	12.0	14.6	15.2	-14	3	0	313
Sam Mayer	83.6	6.2	21.2	15.2	17.2	-44	4	3	250
Riley Herbst	83.2	9.6	18.4	16.2	15.6	16	1	4	273
Josh Berry	81.4	17.0	12.0	11.4	14.8	25	2	5	313
Kaz Grala	80.2	19.0	9.0	18.5	14.0	57	0	0	143
Justin Allgaier	77.0	10.6	14.6	18.2	15.8	11	2	8	235
Alex Labbe	74.8	15.6	20.6	21.6	18.2	-20	2	0	252
Jeremy Clements	74.7	20.8	17.0	19.2	17.8	58	1	2	282
Daniel Hemric	73.6	13.8	16.4	22.6	16.6	-37	1	0	268
Sage Karam	69.1	16.0	21.7	20.0	19.7	77	0	0	132
Landon Cassill	67.8	15.6	12.8	21.0	17.4	-31	0	0	289
Andy Lally	65.7	23.3	17.0	18.8	18.5	30	1	3	267
Anthony Alfredo	64.9	18.0	22.0	20.6	19.2	-8	0	0	299
Ryan Sieg	60.3	30.8	25.0	15.4	21.6	4	0	2	313
Preston Pardus	59.8	20.5	25.8	18.8	21.8	-22	0	0	238
Josh Bilicki	59.0	20.3	20.0	21.7	21.0	63	0	0	176
Myatt Snider	58.4	26.4	20.2	21.4	22.0	-1	0	19	256
Stefan Parsons	57.8	27.3	24.0	19.0	22.3	-34	0	0	201
Jeb Burton	50.5	24.8	23.0	30.4	24.8	-66	0	0	157
Bayley Currey	45.8	32.8	28.4	26.2	26.8	60	0	0	267
Josh Williams	44.0	31.0	31.5	19.5	28.0	29	0	0	122
Brandon Brown	43.7	32.0	24.2	26.4	27.4	-3	0	0	254
Scott Heckert	41.8	29.0	29.0	24.8	27.5	50	0	0	265
Patrick Gallagher	38.4	30.5	31.0	26.3	29.3	-39	0	0	170
Ryan Vargas	33.8	35.5	33.5	26.5	31.5	-10	0	0	119
Joe Graf Jr	32.7	33.7	32.7	30.3	30.7	-15	0	0	138

Betting Targets

Practice and qualifying for the Drive for the Cure 250 will take place Saturday morning and I will update our preview to capture practice observations after on-track activities conclude if necessary. However, I don’t see many things changing my betting targets unless we see major discrepancies in practice. As things currently stand, I’m not sure we can bet AJ Allmendinger at his current odds. If you are wanting to get a better number on Allmendinger, I would take my chances towards waiting until after qualifying. Despite 3 straight victories, Allmendinger’s qualifying efforts (5th, 14th, and 22nd) have been less than stellar at the ROVAL. Therefore we may be able to grab some added value if Allmendinger has another mediocre qualifying result.

If it were not for the fear of stage racing and sub-optimal strategy, I really like Austin Hill and Sam Mayer as drivers that could surprise on Saturday. Hill got a taste of the ROVAL in a part-time role last year and his road course skills continue to get better with every performance which is evident in our loop data rankings above. Sam Mayer is one of those drivers that has been a little hit or miss at the road courses but looked really good at the ROVAL last season. Another factor to consider is that Mayer has been really extremely well throughout the 2nd half of the season as well. Instead, I will say that Sheldon Creed is a very underrated road course talent that will have absolutely nothing to lose on Saturday which deserves some consideration as well.

Finally, some of the deeper dark horse options for H2H and prop bet opportunities include drivers like Alex Labbe and James Davison. As a fan of racing, I want to throw Marco Andretti into that mix of drivers but usually 1st-race expectations in a stock-car are minimal. However, Labbe and Davison both have solid upside. Davison is getting a great opportunity in the #18 car for Joe Gibbs Racing this week. Davison has actually has 3 prior starts in the Xfinity Series with JGR which resulted in a pair of quality finishes (4th at Mid-Ohio, 8th at Road America). Davison and Labbe are drivers that have serious road course skills and should benefit from being on the optimal pit strategy.

Betting Fades

I don’t always post betting fades because I feel like sometimes this narrative can be forced. However, I think we can make reasonable arguments that Ty Gibbs and Justin Allgaier are among the big names that can be faded this week. Granted, Gibbs remains one of the best road course talents in the field. However, Gibbs did not look great at the ROVAL last year and also will be having to go for those stage points that I mentioned earlier. Keep in mind, there is a path for Gibbs securing his advancement following the open stage if certain things go his way. If that happens, their strategy could change as the race progresses. Allgaier is in a more dire points situation and must race for every stage point possible. Furthermore, Allgaier has not been very good at the road courses this season or ever at the ROVAL for that matter. As a result, I think both drivers can be faded in H2H formats.

Draftkings Drive for the Cure 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +1000 (.75 unit)
Austin Hill +1200 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
James Davison +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Noah Gragson -130 over Justin Allgaier (3 units)
Sheldon Creed -110 over Sam Mayer (2 units)