2022 DoorDash 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 11th, 2022. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Sonoma Raceway
TV: FS1

The Camping World Truck Series returns to Wine Country for the first time since 1998 on Saturday with the running of the Door Dash 250 at Sonoma Raceway. Not only will the Truck Series return to Sonoma for the first time in over 20 years but Saturday’s field will feature a plethora of racing talent as several Cup Series’ drivers will be competing to fine tune their skills for Sunday’s Toyota Save Mart 350. In fact, 5 different full-time Cup Series’ drivers will join the action stemming from the likes of Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, Austin Dillon, and Harrison Burton!

Without surprise, Kyle Busch leads all drivers for Saturday’s DoorDash 250 as the overall betting favorite. While Busch is the all-time series leader and a former two-time winner in the Cup Series at Sonoma, Rowdy has also been shut out this season in the Truck Series with 0 wins through his first 4 starts. Busch will be making his final Truck Series start of the season on Saturday and he fails to find victory lane again; it will become just the 2nd time in Busch’s 18 year Cup Series career that he has failed to capture a Truck Series victory with the last instance coming all the way back in 2012.

Busch ultimately dominated the only race this season at a road course venue back at Circuit of the Americas in March. If bettors and fans remember that race, it was the ending where Alex Bowman famously got into Busch on a final restart which ultimately allowed Zane Smith to steal the win. Bowman returns to the #7 team with Spire Motorsports for another shot at a victory this week and is considered by many to be Busch’s main opposition on Saturday. However, I would warn that there are other drivers with much better betting value that are very capable of scoring the upset in tomorrow’s DoorDash 250. Let’s discuss the drivers that all bettors should have on their radar!

Practice Notes

Teams and drivers got the opportunity to tackle Sonoma Raceway Friday afternoon with a 50-minute practice session. At the end of the session, Christian Eckes held the fastest time with a lap of 88.401mph. Eckes’ fast-lap bested the likes of Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, Matt DiBenedetto, and Parker Kligerman who all rounded out the top 5 in terms of single lap speed. In terms of overall observations, I will say that Matt DiBenedetto appeared really solid. I have been critical of DiBenedetto in the truck series, mainly because of the equipment fact, but I believe Sonoma is a perfect place for Matty D to lean on his experience and overcome the equipment narrative.

Personally, I thought Zane Smith looked the best of everyone in practice. Smith won the only road course event of the season back at Circuit of the Americas after Bowman and Busch collided on the final restart. While I’m not sure if Smith’s betting value is great, he has the talent to stay at the front of the field without question. There were several others that displayed flashes of speed that I have not mentioned yet including guys like Chandler Smith, Ty Majeski, and Ben Rhodes. Rhodes has the best road course pedigree out of the trio but I’m not sure I trust any of those drivers to beat the quality of talent in tomorrow’s field.

Betting Targets

In sharing my thoughts heading into Saturday’s Truck race at Sonoma, I believe one of the main factors towards Busch’s winless streak is two-fold between the fact that Kyle Busch Motorsports is not quite as dominant as they have been historically and the fact Busch himself has been wheeling the step-child equipment from KBM as well. Granted, road racing is much less about the equipment factor but it still cannot be overlooked either. As a result, I just don’t feel like Busch warrants the betting consideration that we would traditionally give him at such short odds.

Aside from Busch, I really believe that Alex Bowman and John Hunter Nemechek are the best road course talents in the field. Bowman has developed into a very respectable road course talent in recent years in the Cup Series. Meanwhile, Nemechek has 3 runner-up finishes and a 3rd place result in his last 5 road course races in the Truck Series. In fact, I would venture to say that Nemechek has the best betting value out of all drivers going into Saturday’s event and can be aggressively targeted in all formats.

I think you are going to have a hard time deciphering the best H2H targets from the likes of Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, Chandler Smith, and others in the upper echelon of competition. Simply put, I believe it will be about the drivers that can avoid trouble and avoid mistakes that will emerge from that group which is not exactly what we look for in betting targets. Therefore, I am going much further down the totem pole to find sharper targets like Matt DiBenedetto, Tyler Ankrum, and potentially even Kaz Grala. Grala is an excellent road course driver however the problem is the bookies know this as well leading to often overvalued betting lines. I mentioned the reasons I like Matty D going into Saturday but I would also throw a quick shoutout to Tyler Ankrum who looked really sporty in practice and has a pretty solid road course resume in terms of quality finishes.

2022 Draftkings DoorDash 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 DoorDash 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Alex Bowman +700 (1 unit)
Zane Smith +900 (1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1000 (1 unit)
Carson Hocevar +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Alex Bowman +135 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -110 over Stewart Friesen (2 units)
Hailie Deegan -145 over Todd Bodine (2 units)
Kaz Grala +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Hailie Deegan +5000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)