2022 Dixie Vodka 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 23rd, 2022. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: NBC

Last week, Joey Logano secured his seat in the championship round at Phoenix with his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The win secured Logano’s 5th career appearance in the Championship Four and he will get a chance to go after his 2nd series’ title. With just two races remaining before the season finale, there are still 3 other championship positions open for the playoff contenders. On Sunday, the Cup Series revisits one of my favorite tracks at Homestead-Miami Speedway highlighted by progressive banking, low-grip conditions, and excessive tire wear which should be a good recipe for an exciting afternoon of racing.

Unlike most of the races in the Cup Series’ this season, especially on the 1.5 mile surfaces, we will see a lot of tire wear for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400. The Next Gen Car and Goodyear have been scrutinized a lot this season for the lack of tire wear with this new product of racing. However, Homestead-Miami Speedway’s 20 plus year old racing surface is rugged and worn similar to the likes of Darlington Raceway. Drivers will be fighting low-grip conditions and lap times will fall off around 3 seconds from the beginning to end of green flag runs. These conditions can be advantageous to bettors because we can put more emphasis on the drivers this week rather than performance trends which can be tricky to follow.

1.5 Mile Loop Data

Since I don’t believe that in-season loop data offers the same value as it did, for example, last week at Las Vegas, I am not going to update the loop data statistics following last week’s results. However, you can see all of the loop data on the 1.5 mile surfaces prior to Vegas in last week’s article found here: 1.5 mile loop data. In that data, we were able to identify emerging trends last week with the Team Penske cars that have found some speed in recent weeks and that helped us cash with Joey Logano in last week’s South Point 400. For this week’s race, I believe the trends are still relative in terms of performance but we should also strongly consider track history into the equation this week as well.

Cup Series driver notes for Homestead

I have not mentioned track history much at all this season because the Next Gen Car has essentially erased prior track history narratives which were largely influenced by equipment trends as much as it was driver trends. However, Homestead-Miami Speedway is one of the few tracks where equipment advantages can be erased by raw talent behind the wheel. As a result, I think it is important that we look at prior track history. Still, I would point out that the prior stats are based on the prior car. We are simply looking for the drivers that have typically emerged at the front and potentially pay more attention to those who have done that without the top equipment at the time.

• Denny Hamlin owns the most wins (3) among active drivers at Homestead
• Kyle Busch is the only two-time winner at Homestead
• Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, Joey Logano, and most recently William Byron (2021) are the only other drivers with prior wins at Homestead
• Martin Truex Jr (112.9) has the highest average driver rating over the last 3 races at Homestead. Truex has also finished 3rd or better in 4 of the last 5 races at Homestead.
• Ryan Blaney has finished in the top 10 just once in 7 career starts at Homestead
• Michael McDowell scored his best career finish at Homestead in 2021 with a 6th place result
• Tyler Reddick has finished 4th and 2nd in his only two career starts at Homestead in the Cup Series

Practice Observations

In Saturday’s practice, John Hunter Nemechek posted the fastest lap of the session with a fast time of 167.188mph. Nemechek is filling in for Bubba Wallace who got a one race suspension for intentionally wrecking Kyle Larson last week. While all drivers ran their fastest lap on the first lap on track and single lap times mean nothing, Nemechek is a very talented driver and with a #45 team that have been best on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. While Nemechek posted the fastest time of the session, Tyler Reddick was the guy that showed the best long-run speed. Reddick posted the best consecutive 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages among the drivers that posted times in those categories.

In reality, Reddick’s top times should be least surprising as he has been phenomenal at Homestead-Miami Speedway throughout his career. Reddick won two Xfinity Series’ championships with different teams at Homestead and has posted two top 5 finishes in both Cup Series’ starts at Homestead. Behind Reddick, I personally thought Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson displayed similar long-run strength. Behind some of those well known and expected front-runners, guys like Nemechek, AJ Allmendinger, and Justin Haley were among the lower-tier drivers that showed solid speed throughout Saturday’s practice session. On the other side of the spectrum, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick were a few of the names that appeared to be far below expectations at the outcome of Saturday’s lone practice.

Betting Targets

In terms of the outright win, I think everyone is chasing Tyler Reddick on Sunday until proven otherwise. Reddick has been great at Homestead and has been the fastest guy in the Cup Series in recent weeks providing a potential perfect culmination of performance and driver trends peaking at a place like Homestead. Behind Reddick, I believe Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin are strong pivot options who should contend on Sunday. Chastain will likely contend from the start and provide a higher fantasy ceiling for fastest laps/laps led. However, I do believe Hamlin will also find his way to the front as this race progresses.

Aside from some of the top names that are slightly more obvious choices, I really like some of the lesser known names for H2H and props this weekend. Some of the young drivers like John Hunter Nemechek, Noah Gragson, and Justin Haley have shown excellent trends at the low-grip tracks throughout all series. As a result, those guys provide some high risk/high reward potential and perhaps are most suitable for prop bets. For H2H options, I believe guys like Ross Chastain, Noah Gragson, AJ Allmendinger, and Michael McDowell, offer the best options at the different tier levels. Gragson has been phenomenal at Homestead in Xfinity Series competition and has shown a quick adaptation to the Next Gen Car in recent weeks filling in for Alex Bowman. Meanwhile, McDowell is having the best season of his career combined with the fact he finished 6th in this race last year and has two top 10 finishes this season at Darlington which is comparable for a number of reasons.

For deeper prop bet considerations, Erik Jones and Cole Custer are additional drivers worthy of consideration based on current betting odds

Draftkings Dixie Vodka 400 Optimal Lineup



2022 Dixie Vodka 400 Race Picks

*Final*
Tyler Reddick +700 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1000 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1800 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2500 (.5 unit)


H2H Match-ups and Props

Joey Logano -110 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Cole Custer +125 over Harrison Burton (2 units)
Erik Jones +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +350 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +1500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)