2022 Dead on Tools 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 29th, 2022. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: NBC

Just one race remains before next week’s championship finale at Phoenix and that means one final opportunity for the playoff drivers to earn a shot to race for a championship. On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series steps into the spotlight for the running of the Dead on Tools 250 at historic Martinsville Speedway. As things currently stand, Josh Berry and Noah Gragson have secured their championship bids with victories at Las Vegas and Homestead. As a result, just two spots remain open to solidify the Championship 4 and those spots will be filled following 250 laps at Martinsville Speedway.

Earlier today, Brandon Jones earned the pole for tomorrow’s Dead on Tools 250 with a fast lap of 95.482mph around the ½ mile paper-clip. Jones was actually the winner of the spring race at Martinsville. For those that remember that race back in the spring, Ty Gibbs basically dominated the event by leading 197 of 261 laps. However, Jones was able to get by Gibbs on the last lap following a crazy restart to steal the victory. Needless to say, Jones has proven to be fast at Martinsville and will be one of those playoff contenders that likely needs a win to keep their championship hopes alive.

From a betting standpoint, Martinsville Speedway can be a tricky betting venue. While there are definitely advantages to handicapping drivers, the half-mile venue can be very costly for any drivers that run into mistakes. One blown tire, loose wheel, or malfunction could result in drivers losing multiple-laps that takes them out of contention. Likewise one spin or mistake can cost a ton of track position that can take hundreds of laps to overcome. Simply put, Martinsville can produce a lot of volatility that is outside of bettors’ control and that is reason to be somewhat conservative from an overall risk standpoint.

Practice Observations

Before qualifying, Xfinity Series’ teams did get a chance to practice which should help in establishing expectations. After 35 minutes and several laps laid down, Ty Gibbs posted the fastest practice time at 93.061mph. Following Gibbs’ dominance in the spring, he expected to be among the overall favorites. Along with Gibbs’ fast single lap time, he also was at the top of the charts in the categories of best overall average which included best 5 and 15 lap averages. AJ Allmendinger was the only driver that disrupted Gibbs’ dominance on the stopwatch with the best 10 lap consecutive average.

Aside from Gibbs being clearly the fastest car, I thought all of the Kaulig Racing cars looked really strong. Allmendinger, Daniel Hemric, and Landon Cassill all displayed great speed with Allmendinger being the best of the group. It is worth noting that Hemric wrecked during the end of practice and will be in a back-up car going into Saturday’s race. Other drivers that also impressed purely from a practice standpoint included guys like Sam Mayer, Blaine Perkins, and Ryan Siegs based on expectations to respective betting odds.

Betting Targets

For Saturday’s betting targets, it would be ignorant to leave Ty Gibbs out of the top position despite the minimal value. Gibbs was the fastest car throughout practice and flexed dominating ability back in the spring race which is deserving of being a top target. Behind Gibbs, I believe AJ Allmendinger and Sam Mayer are the best betting options in terms of value among the upper echelon of the competition. Allmendinger finished 3rd in the spring race and he excels at venues where heavy braking is needed. Meanwhile, Sam Mayer could be one of my favorite targets in all formats. Mayer is one of the most underrated short-track drivers in the field and has posted top 5 finishes in both of his starts at Martinsville Speedway. As a result, I believe Mayer is a legitimate threat going into Saturday and relatively generous odds.

While the above drivers are my favorite betting targets among the top guys, I would also like to point out that Noah Gragson and Josh Berry are former Martinsville winners which appear to be on top of their game at the moment. Therefore, there are definitely more threats in the field than the drivers I am highlighting for betting focus. Behind the top guys, I do believe Landon Cassill and Daniel Hemric are being completely disrespected in terms of betting odds. Both Cassill and Hemric were among the top of the charts in practice. While I understand both drivers have just one win combined in the Xfinity Series, I do believe they are worthy of consideration for the outright win especially when you consider Cassill finished in the runner-up position at Martinsville in the spring.

For deeper prop bet and H2H considerations, Ryan Sieg and Jeremy Clements are drivers to target

Draftkings Dead on Tools 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 Dead on Tools 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Ty Gibbs +250 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +1500 (.5 units)
Landon Cassill +4000 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Sam Mayer -110 over Sammy Smith (3 units)
Ty Gibbs -130 over Noah Gragson (3 units)
Landon Cassill -110 over Riley Herbst (2 units)