2022 Dead on Tools 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday May 6th, 2022. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Darlington Raceway
TV: FS1

The Camping World Truck Series returns to action on Friday with the running of the Dead on Tools 200 at the historic Darlington Raceway. It has been 3 weeks since the Truck Series last competed at the Bristol dirt race. In that event, Ben Rhodes captured his 1st victory of the season and currently owns a 38 point lead in the series’ standings. Throughout the year, Truck Series’ drivers have been tested in numerous different ways with two superspeedway events, a road course race, a dirt race, and two short tracks in just the first 6 events. This week, Truck Series’ drivers will get one of the ultimate driving tests when they tangle with the Lady in Black for 200 miles at Darlington.

As most bettors and onlookers are aware, Darlington Raceway provides the most difficult driving test in the sport. The 1.366 mile fickle race track with high banking and an extremely narrow racing surface. The high banks produce tremendous speeds but the track’s rigid surface produces a ton of tire wear which means trucks will be racing at high speeds, in a narrow two groove track, and with less grip with each passing lap. Needless to say, Darlington produces a test of drivers’ abilities to make fast lap times under loose grip conditions around other competitors while being consistent enough to keep the tires on the truck for the long-runs.

For these reasons, raw speed brought on by good equipment or horsepower will only be good for a handful of laps. Eventually, we will see the best driving talents emerge in the front of the field and that is the way to handicap Darlington in this series. If you look back through prior Truck Series races at Darlington, the best driver in the field was often the winner and the most raw talented drivers typically emerged at the front. We will use that mindset and philosophy to compare the talents for Friday’s entry list in the Dead on Tools 200 and formulate expectations that ultimately leads to our betting selections.

Handicapping Notes

In reviewing the entry list for Friday, I definitely believe John Hunter Nemechek and Ben Rhodes have the clear talent advantage among the Truck Series regulars? Since the Truck Series returned to Darlington in 2020, Rhodes has posted a victory and a runner-up finish in 3 starts. Meanwhile, John Hunter Nemchek posted finishes of 8th (spring) and 2nd (fall) in both of last season’s Truck Series races at Darlington. Without question, I believe both Rhodes and Nemechek are top betting options this week but we can also not rule out Ross Chastain who will be making a part-time start with Niece Motorsports. Chastain obviously meets the talent level threshold to warrant immediate consideration. The biggest caveat to that argument is that Niece Motorsports has not been overly impressive this season and Chastain has 0 starts in the Truck Series at Darlington.

A couple other drivers that are worthy of keeping on your radar this weekend include the likes of Grant Enfinger, Carson Hocevar, and Christian Eckes. Enfinger is one of those drivers that performs well on low-grip surfaces and has never finished worse than 6th in 3 career starts at Darlington. Meanwhile, Hocevar was really impressive in both Darlington events last season which included a 3rd place finish in this race one year ago. Meanwhile, Christian Eckes is one of those guys that does not have a ton of experience but has shown speed in the #98 truck. Eckes has not always got the finishes to match the speed but Darlington was one of his better performance venues in 2021 and therefore should remain on bettors’ radars especially in the form of H2H match-ups.

Betting Targets

In terms of current betting odds and gauging the sharpest betting options for Friday, I think Ben Rhodes has considerable value among the favorites. Granted, I slightly prefer John Hunter Nemechek but it’s by a smaller margin than most would expect. Meanwhile, Rhodes is getting twice the value of Nemechek as the 3rd highest favorite and I believe he is just as dangerous as Nemechek or Chastain at Darlington. Needless to say, Rhodes has the desired betting value to warrant immediate consideration.

For dark horse and/or H2H betting options, I will be waiting until practice concludes on Friday to make my final selections. Since there will only be a few hours between practice and the green flag, I want to go ahead and leave everyone with my thoughts heading into Friday. Two of the drivers I have pegged for sharp value include the likes of Carson Hocevar and Chandler Smith. I believe by now the secret is out that Chandler Smith is going to have success and he performed very well at Darlington last September. Currently, Smith is in the 2nd-tier range of the “favorites” category and I think he will exceed most expectations. Meanwhile, Hocevar is a much deeper option with a less likely ceiling. However, Hocevar has a good track performance history at Darlington and this is one of the few places where he can overcome some of the equipment disadvantages. Expect the young driver to run well on Friday.

Practice Notes

Update: Practice and qualifying just concluded for the Truck Series at Darlington Raceway. Unsurprising to most, John Hunter Nemechek stole the show in both sessions and earned the pole with a lap of 171.232mph. Nemechek clearly looked like the driver/truck combination especially on the long runs. Nemechek may be vulnerable for just a few laps on the short-run which may be competitors’ best chance to beat the #4 truck barring any misfortune or bad luck

In terms of the long run, I also believe Ross Chastain had some really solid lap times after the tires wear off. I don’t think Chastain has anything for Nemechek at this point but things could change over the course of 200 miles. Other drivers that looked solid on the speed charts included Ty Majeski and Chandler Smith. Both drivers looked very sporty despite the fact Smith had a bad qualifying effort. Either way, expect both teams to have high ceilings for tonight’s race.

Draftkings Dead On Tools 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Dead on Tools 200 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +350 (2 units)
Ben Rhodes +800 (1 unit)
Chandler Smith +1000 (1 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Ben Rhodes -120 over Ryan Preece (2 units)
Carson Hocevar -105 over Corey Heim (2 units)