NASCAR Betting and Handicapping Preview|
Date: February, 7th 2022|
With yesterday’s Busch Light Clash in the rearview, NASCAR bettors and fans can officially start gazing at the horizon to set sights on the 64th running of the Daytona 500. Obviously, superspeedway racing is tailored towards more luck than skill at least in the realm of betting. However, there is a strategic methodology towards betting superspeedway races for long-term success and it always involves targeting drivers that provide high ROI percentages. While our official preview and picks for the Daytona 500 will not be decided until the end of Daytona Speedweeks, it’s never too early to take a preview of the 2022 Daytona 500 betting odds to make some notable value observations.
2022 Daytona 500 Betting Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +850 |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 |
| Kyle Larson | +1100 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1500 |
| William Byron | +1500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1600 |
| Kurt Busch | +1700 |
| Kyle Busch | +1700 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1800 |
| Alex Bowman | +1800 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +2000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2000 |
| Aric Almirola | +2200 |
| Austin Dillon | +2500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +2500 |
| Austin Cindric | +2500 |
| Christopher Bell | +2500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2500 |
| Chris Buescher | +3500 |
| Justin Haley | +4000 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +4500 |
| Ross Chastain | +4500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +5000 |
| Cole Custer | +5000 |
| Erik Jones | +5000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +6000 |
| Michael McDowell | +6000 |
| David Ragan | +7000 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +8000 |
| Harrison Burton | +8000 |
| Noah Gragson | +10000 |
| Ty Dillon | +10000 |
| Kaz Grala | +10000 |
| Landon Cassill | +10000 |
| Corey Lajoie | +13000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +15000 |
| J.J. Yeley | +15000 |
| B.J. McLeod | +30000 |
| Garrett Smithley | +30000 |
| Cody Ware | +30000 |
| Josh Bilicki | +30000 |
| Quin Houff | +30000 |
Bet the Daytona 500 with BetOnline
As bettors can see above, the lure of superspeedway racing revolves around appetizing betting odds. Over half of the entries for the 2022 Daytona 500 are listed at 20 to 1 odds or greater. Last year, Michael McDowell shocked the world with his upset in the 2021 Daytona 500. McDowell’s first Cup Series win in his 358th start rivaled some of the biggest upsets in Daytona 500 history in the modern era which includes Trevor Bayne’s win in 2011, Michael Waltrip’s timeless victory in 2001, and even Derrike Cope’s victory back in 1990. In last year’s race, McDowell was listed at 100 to 1 odds at most major sportsbooks meaning even the smallest of wagers would have produced tremendous upside.
Obviously, huge upsets are not always common in NASCAR’s marquee event. In fact, Denny Hamlin has won 3 of the last 6 Daytona 500 races as the biggest betting favorite in the field. As this year’s overall favorite again, Hamlin still provides decent value at 8 ½ to 1 odds. Even at less favorable odds, hitting a winner like Hamlin should immediately provoke profits for the entire weekend unless for some reason bettors are overextending their wagers. In terms of strategy, I typically prefer a sprinkle approach with betting targets at each odds’ range which includes favorites, intermediates, and long shots. If we position our wagers in a disciplined manner with that approach, we increase our probability of hitting a winner by taking additional drivers and still maintain a relatively low overall margin of risk.
Early Value
Below, I have highlighted a few drivers that I believe have early value based on the numbers. Granted, I want to see how drivers perform during speedweeks before finalizing most bets especially with the Next Gen’s Car debut at Daytona. With that being said, I also don’t expect the Next Gen Car to produce a lot of variance from the driver seat in superspeedway races. The nature of superspeedway racing remains the same which involves an edgy cocktail of drafting (in all forms), positioning, strategy, and being aggressive at the right moments. I’m sure we will see some drivers/teams that have “raw” speed right out of the gates but the field will ultimately be leveled in the midst of the big pack once the racing cranks up for the Great American Race. With those thoughts in mind, take a look at a few options that have grabbed my early attention:
Ryan Blaney +1500: For whatever reason, the public’s perception of Ryan Blaney is still pretty ambivalent especially among the superspeedways. In my humble opinion, I think Blaney has emerged as one of the top superspeedway threats in the Cup Series and the numbers definitely support that narrative. In fact, Blaney’s 3 superspeedway victories are tied with Denny Hamlin for the most since 2019. While two of those victories were produced at Talladega, Blaney won the most recent trip to Daytona in the 2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400. Blaney also occupies the 3rd highest driver rating since 2019 in all superspeedway races. On the heels of his best season in the sport last year, Blaney is one of those story-fitting options that could kick off 2022 with a bang!
Justin Haley +4000: This option seems to be too easy. Granted, nothing is ever easy at Daytona. However, Haley is among the best superspeedway talents in the field and is jumping over to a full-time role with Kaulig Racing this season which finally gives him the chance to showcase his talent. All 4 of Haley’s Xfinity Series victories were produced on the high banks of Daytona and Talladega in races against primed competition. Many also forget that Haley won the rain-shortened Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona in a part-time role in 2019 which remains his only Cup Series victory. While the Cup Series win was more of a fluke based on weather strategy, Haley’s superspeedway talent is anything but a fluke. After a strong performance in the Busch Light Clash, I am confident the equipment factor is suitable for Haley to showcase his skills if he can stay out of trouble. I would love to get an even higher number on Haley but it also would not be surprising if he performs well during speedweeks which would ultimately bring this number down closer to race time.
Harrison Burton +8000: For the record, I am not overly confident that Burton will have a strong rookie campaign. The jump to NASCAR’s highest division has been brutal among young drivers in recent years and the Next Gen Car will obviously make that jump even tougher. With that being said, Burton still produces home-run style potential at 80 to 1 odds in one of the most misconstrued betting lines on the entire card. Burton will be stepping into the #21 machine with the iconic Wood Brothers Racing in 2022 which has a manufacturers alliance with Team Penske. Wood Brothers Racing has a prestigious history at Daytona and I don’t think their equipment is that bad compared to most smaller teams. More importantly, Burton has participated in enough superspeedway events to hold his own going into Daytona. The style of racing at Daytona will not be new to the rookie and he has produced top 5 finishes in 3 of his 4 starts at Daytona in the Xfinity Series. At 80 to 1 odds, it would almost be criminal to avoid Burton for some type of consideration.
