2022 Contender Boats 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 22nd, 2022. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: USA Network

Shortly after the conclusion of the Truck Series’ race, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take the 2nd leg of Saturday’s double header when the green flag waves for the Contender Boats 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Last week, Josh Berry helped us hit a +1800 win with his victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The victory locked Berry into the championship round of the Xfinity Series’ playoffs. On Saturday, another potential playoff position will be on the line as drivers compete for a victory at Homestead.

If you caught my Truck Series’ preview for the Baptist 200, I spent a lot of time discussing my strategy for handicapping tracks like Homestead. In short, I typically favor the better drivers that produce speed over the long-run than the bias seen by short-run speed produced by equipment. With that being said, we have a rather unique predicament in that the best drivers in the Xfinity Series, Noah Gragson and Ty Gibbs, are also in the fastest cars in the series. The combination of those factors means that both Gragson and Gibbs should have a combined high-probability of winning Saturday’s Contender Boats 300.

Since the least valuable (odds) drivers have the highest probability of winning, I am not necessarily high on our chance to produce profits in the form of win (futures) bets. We essentially have two options in the form of futures (win) bets. We could either take some low probability pivot selections with better betting value than the favorites or we could increase our risk size on the favorites in a more risk/more ROI sufficient scenario. Let’s discuss the best scenario for this Saturday’s Contender Boats 300 and also discuss some better opportunities in the form of H2H match-ups.

1.5 Mile Loop Data

I’m not going to reproduce our loop data rankings this week. I compiled all the 1.5 mile performance averages last week which can be seen here: 1.5 mile loop data. The reason that I did not feel it was needed to update the rankings is because we saw the same trends last week. The JR Motorsports cars continue to have the best speed, Ty Gibbs continues to be the best non-JRM car, and the Kaulig Racing cars have been a bit behind the elite teams in terms of outright speed. Instead of taking in too much consideration for loop data this season, I would point back to the handicapping strategy of focusing on the best drivers in tomorrow’s race, perhaps more so than the loop data ratings.

Betting Targets

If we are going to be sharp about Saturday’s Contender Boats 300, then I believe our focus should start and end with Noah Gragson. Gragson has been the hottest driver in the sport in recent weeks and Homestead-Miami Speedway may be his best track. Gragson has dominated each of the last three races at Homestead-Miami Speedway but has been robbed of victory each time. Now that is obviously another potential outcome against on Saturday because nothing is guaranteed in racing. However I would still claim that from a handicapping perspective, Gragson is head and shoulders above the competition going into this Saturday’s race.

From an odds perspective, I think Justin Allgaier and Josh Berry are likely more advantageous betting options over favorites like Ty Gibbs and Trevor Bayne who have not always looked great at low-grip venues. Allgaier won at Darlington earlier this year which has similar style tire wear and Berry has traditionally shown tremendous long-run speed which he flashed against last week in his win at Vegas. Behind those drivers, I would list the other JR. Motorsports option in rookie Sam Mayer. If you look at performance trends throughout the season, Mayer has been right with the rest of the JRM cars despite limited experience in the series. At a place like Homestead, Mayer’s raw talent may be better suited for results rather than his experience.

For H2H match-ups, Sheldon Creed and Kyle Weatherman are drivers that I believe will produce significant value in the form of match-ups. Creed nearly pulled off a victory at Darlington a few weeks ago and is starting to show the elite speed on a weekly basis. Creed is one of those drivers that will excel on the longer runs and that is an important factor for handicapping Homestead. Finally, Kyle Weatherman is a driver that always overachieves based on the equipment factor. In recent weeks, Weatherman has been fast in the #34 machine and I believe Homestead will provide a strong possibility to showcase the drivers’ talent factor in this Saturday’s Contender Boats 300.

Practice update: Xfinity Series practice only lasted 10 minutes therefore there was not a lot to be gained in terms of observations. From the short session, I would say Sheldon Creed and teammate Austin Hill looked really strong.

Draftkings Contender Boats 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Contender Boats 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +200 (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger +1200 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +1500 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Noah Gragson -140 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Josh Berry +100 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Landon Cassill +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)