2022 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday August 27th, 2022. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s prized Cup Series will pull the curtains on the regular season in a dramatic way Saturday night with the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. With one race remaining before the Chase, drivers will be fighting for two spots in the playoffs due to some late events that have occurred this week. For many drivers, this will be their last opportunity to capture a postseason berth and that should set the stage for a dramatic finale at Daytona!

Earlier this week, Kurt Busch (concussion) announced that he would not be returning in-time to make the start of the playoffs and thus waived his medical waiver that would guarantee his playoff position. Before these events unfolded, there was only 1 playoff spot open going into Daytona due to the fact 15 drivers have won races this season. Now, Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex are the drivers that are currently poised to advance on points but another first-time season winner could throw a wrench into that picture on Saturday. For many guys like Bubba Wallace, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, and others; Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 is a must-win scenario.

While these storylines and ingredients should make for an extremely exciting race on Saturday, it will likely make things even more chaotic for bettors. Superspeedway races are always a volatile and high-risk betting event but when you throw in the playoff clinching scenario then it makes things potentially even more dangerous. However, these superspeedway races still provide the opportunity for great betting odds and the potential for big winners. With a little luck and formulated predictions, perhaps we can be holding a winning ticket when the checkered flag waves on Saturday!

Betting Strategy

Not only are superspeedway races volatile but the Next Gen Car has provided even more parity among NASCAR’s top division. As a result, we have nearly 30 drivers with a legitimate chance at victory if they can make it to the end of this race and position themselves within striking distance. With these things in mind and the potential for a lot of accidents/aggressive driving, I am steering clear of betting match-ups this week. Oftentimes, betting match-ups at superspeedways are determined by survival rather than being the fastest and that does not provide the probability edge that we desire. As a result, our bets this week should be focused on a value sprinkle approach for the outright victory and perhaps target some opportunistic prop bets as well. Personally, I like taking more drivers than normal on betting cards this week because it increases the chances of a winner. However in order to complete that strategy, we must make sure our betting selections produce sufficient value throughout our betting card.

Cup Series Superspeedways – Loop Data

With Atlanta Motor Speedway’s transition to a superspeedway, the Cup Series has had a lot of this “style” of racing this season. In fact, Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 will officially be the 5th superspeedway race of the season. Since we know predicting winners at these races is difficult, our best approach is to try to target the drivers that are consistently in “position” to win these events. As a result, I have compiled loop data stats from a combination of all 4 superspeedway races this season to provide bettors with some tangible data to consider this weekend.

As you will see below, points leader Chase Elliott currently has the highest average rating (104.5) which was highlighted by his victory at Atlanta. Ryan Blaney, who is currently trying to race his way into the playoffs, is the only other driver with a triple digit average rating. Blaney is an excellent superspeedway driver with wins at both Daytona and Talladega. Perhaps the question this week is will the #12 team be aggressive this week or will they play it conservatively knowing they only need to beat Martin Truex (who trails by 25 points) to make the playoffs?

For transparency, I believe the loop data for superspeedways is best used for identifying potential dark horses or value options. When I look through the data below, I immediately notice names like Erik Jones and Bubba Wallace who have posted some really strong performance metrics at these types of races this season. In fact, Jones has the best average running position of all drivers behind Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. Therefore, these are the types of observations that could help us identify sharp betting value come race time. Other noteworthy call-outs even deeper in the data surround the likes of Justin Haley and Corey LaJoie. LaJoie nearly pulled out a Hail Mary victory at Atlanta which really proves that anyone can win this Saturday and having lottery style dark horses on your betting card increases the overall ROI potential. Needless to say, both Haley and LaJoie are solid options for doing just that.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	104.5	11.5	11.0	6.0	9.3	55	20	125	974
Ryan Blaney	102.7	9.3	4.0	9.3	8.3	4	20	76	974
William Byron	93.6	14.0	10.0	21.0	13.8	44	21	191	745
Martin Truex Jr	90.4	12.8	15.3	9.3	12.3	23	22	43	974
Erik Jones	89.6	19.3	8.0	13.3	11.0	-1	23	38	964
Ross Chastain	86.8	11.8	23.3	11.3	17.8	38	27	75	835
Christopher Bell	83.0	13.8	14.5	24.5	14.3	42	19	23	924
Bubba Wallace	82.9	19.0	15.8	11.5	13.8	-1	26	30	974
Kyle Busch	81.3	11.3	24.3	15.5	17.5	23	24	52	820
Kyle Larson	80.2	7.5	16.3	19.8	14.5	67	23	34	850
Joey Logano	79.8	13.3	26.0	22.0	18.3	25	21	14	864
Alex Bowman	78.8	12.0	20.3	18.8	19.0	56	31	0	870
Daniel Suarez	77.3	11.3	21.8	14.8	17.0	-63	22	41	876
Brad Keselowski	77.2	18.3	11.5	15.5	15.8	25	26	67	973
Austin Cindric	77.2	11.0	15.5	14.3	16.8	-85	21	28	849
Aric Almirola	76.6	23.3	11.8	12.0	15.5	-8	28	6	974
Kevin Harvick	73.4	16.0	9.0	18.3	14.5	-93	19	11	964
Justin Haley	71.9	20.5	17.5	13.3	18.8	-4	24	1	971
Denny Hamlin	71.6	17.0	20.0	27.3	18.0	43	16	12	722
Corey LaJoie	70.6	30.0	20.5	13.5	20.0	88	23	20	974
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	70.4	23.0	16.8	30.0	19.8	65	18	40	651
Michael McDowell	70.2	17.0	24.5	13.5	21.0	-39	23	0	970
Tyler Reddick	64.3	8.5	22.3	32.8	22.8	-14	8	18	597
Chase Briscoe	62.5	10.3	18.8	17.8	21.3	3	31	5	842
Chris Buescher	61.3	14.8	21.3	23.5	21.5	-57	9	0	688
Austin Dillon	55.8	23.3	26.8	24.3	24.5	39	12	1	576
Cole Custer	54.9	24.5	22.3	23.0	24.5	-82	18	1	707
Harrison Burton	54.0	22.8	26.0	27.0	24.0	-4	11	12	732
Todd Gilliland	53.3	28.5	18.8	26.0	21.0	-18	14	0	868
David Ragan	50.2	35.0	22.0	16.7	25.3	-79	22	0	712
Ty Dillon	50.0	21.8	26.3	27.0	24.8	-56	7	0	565
Landon Cassill	48.0	34.0	24.7	19.3	27.7	-21	5	0	648
Cody Ware	41.4	33.0	26.3	23.5	27.3	-84	11	0	864
Noah Gragson	40.5	32.3	26.5	30.5	27.5	53	13	0	492
B.J. McLeod	36.5	35.8	28.8	27.0	29.8	14	10	4	770

Betting Targets

As I have said throughout my career, there are not any wrong choices for superspeedway races but only correct ones. With that mentality in mind, the drivers that I really like this weekend are centered around the likes of Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr, and essentially anyone from the Team Penske brigade. My reasons are different for all of those choices. To be clear, Elliott has been fantastic at the superspeedways this year and just makes a lot of logical sense. Truex has never won a superspeedway race but did win two stages in the Daytona 500. More importantly, I think Truex will have a lot of “teammate” help this week to ensure he has the best chance of making the playoffs.

For the Team Penske option, I don’t think you can go wrong with any of those options. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano have arguably been the best superspeedway talents in recent years meanwhile Austin Cindric is the reigning Daytona 500 winner. Personally, I would not be surprised to see Blaney’s team take things mildly conservative. If they just avoid getting caught up in a wreck, they have a good chance to make the playoffs. For that reason, I am leaning towards Logano being the driver that gets my most attention from the Team Penske camp. Logano has a knack for stealing the spotlight in some of the biggest races and it would not be surprising to see him get another superspeedway victory.

Other drivers that I have highlighted as potential options include the likes of Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher among your intermediate options. I mentioned Jones earlier and will reiterate again that he has been strong in these types of races. Keselowski has the most decorated superspeedway resume in the Cup Series though most of his success has been at Talladega. Still, Keselowski knows that this is an event that could really put the feather in the cap for RFK Racing’s march towards turning things around. Meanwhile, I believe Chris Buescher is one of the most underrated talents in the field and is getting really good odds.

*Lottery style picks that I also like include Justin Haley, Michael McDowell, and Noah Gragson

Draftkings Coke Zero Sugar 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

*Final*

William Byron +1400 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +1400 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +2000 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +2500 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +3300 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3300 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +5000 (.25 unit)
Corey LaJoie +10000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Cole Custer +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)