2022 Clean Harbors 150 Race Picks
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 18th, 2022. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: Knoxville Raceway
TV: FS1
NASCAR’s Xfinity and Cup Series will enjoy a rare off week this weekend before a critical 10-race summer stretch to decide the drivers eligible for the playoffs. While bettors will not get any action in the both top two touring series, the Camping World Truck Series’ will look to compensate for the racing excitement with dirt racing at Knoxville Raceway! The dirt experience returns to the Truck Series for the 2nd time this season. Back in April, series points leader Ben Rhodes captured his lone victory of the season at the Bristol dirt race. Rhodes enters Saturday’s Clean Harbors 150 among the overall betting favorites for what I believe to be an opportunistic betting event.
The dirt phenomena has long-lived in the Truck Series. After all, the Truck Series became the first major NASCAR series to return to dirt back in 2013. Since 2013, the truck series has held at least one dirt race between either Eldora and Bristol which has been very popular among fans. Historically, these truck races have been difficult to gauge from a betting perspective especially with the mixed bag of competitors that have competed in these races in recent years. However with the recent addition of Knoxville to the schedule, I believe we are starting to see enough dirt racing among the Truck Series’ regulars to formulate accurate betting predictions. As a result, I believe we can make some strong angles to consider for Saturday’s Clean Harbors 150.
In reviewing the entry list for Saturday’s main event, there are only 3 former dirt winners in the field which consist of the trio of Matt Crafton, Stewart Friesen, and Ben Rhodes. Despite what we have traditionally witnessed in the dirt races, there are not any Cup Series drivers that are scheduled to compete with the exception of rookie Todd Gilliland who will be with the #17 for Team DGR. Xfinity Series’ driver Brett Moffitt will also be in action for AM Racing and the #22 truck typically piloted by Austin Wayne-Self. Aside from Gilliland, the only other part-time driver that is worthy of mentioning is Buddy Kufoid in the #51 for Kyle Busch Motorsports. In my personal opinion, Gilliland is the only threat from that group of part-time entries meaning we will be putting a lot of focus on the prior dirt performance of the Truck Series’ regulars in order to identify our betting picks.
Weekend Schedule and Betting Note
The Camping World Truck Series has two practices currently scheduled for Friday evening before heat races and the main event transpire Saturday evening. However, I wanted to post this preview early because I believe there are some drivers that have excellent opening value. I want to lock-in a few drivers early because they are likely to lose value closer to race time. I will discuss the drivers that are on my radar, prior to Friday’s practices below, and also update the preview with practice notes and final thoughts after on-track activity concludes on Friday. Therefore, be sure to continue to check back for added content and predictions.
Betting Targets
One of the important categories that I look at for the dirt races is the drivers that have routinely turned the fastest laps on the dirt surfaces. While obviously consistency and staying out of trouble are important, the “fastest laps” category has routinely been a pretty reliable indicator for handicapping dirt races. For example, contrary to popular opinion Stewart Friesen has not been one of the top truck series regulars. Friesen is nationally known for his dirt racing skills and is often listed as a betting favorite at these events. Aside from his win at Eldora in 2019, Friesen has just 5 of the fastest laps in the last 3 dirt races and has not finished inside the top 10 since that victory at Eldora. Friesen is just one example of how public perception and betting odds are not always justified, which must be remembered for betting purposes on Saturday.
In terms of the fastest laps category, Ben Rhodes leads all Truck Series regulars with 48 fastest laps posted over the last 3 dirt races. Carson Hocevar, Chandler Smith, and Ty Majeski are the only other drivers with a significant amount of fastest laps to their resume. Hocevar and Majeski have stood out to me all weekend because both drivers are having an incredible 2022 campaign. Majeski has been one of the hottest drivers in the series and looked excellent in his only dirt race back at Bristol. Meanwhile, Hocevar qualified on the pole last week with a broken foot and ultimately had to turn to Daniel Suarez’ for a relief driver after the start at Sonoma. I would monitor Hocevar’s health this week but I don’t expect him to get out of the truck at Knoxville where the likelihood of hard hits is much less likely. For those reasons, Hocevar and Majeski are a few of my favorite betting targets this week in all formats.
If I had to put money on two drivers for the outright victory, Todd Gilliland and Chandler Smith are probably your best choices. Both drivers were excellent here in the inaugural race at Knoxville last year and have improved as drivers since that time. In the #17 for his father’s team this week, I would expect Gilliland to have the equipment to challenge for a victory but don’t rule out Smith either. In terms of dark horses in the realm of H2H bets, I would take close looks at drivers like Grant Enfinger, Matt Crafton, Derek Kraus, and Hailie Deegan who all should perform better than their current projections.
*The above betting targets have been compiled prior to Friday’s on-track activity. Be sure to check back below for added practice observations and final betting thoughts for Saturday’s Clean Harbors 150
Practice Notes and Final Thoughts
Truck Series’ teams recently wrapped up two practice sessions from Knoxville Raceway. In final practice, one of our main betting targets prior to practice in Carson Hocevar paced the field with the fastest lap in final practice with an average speed of 76.570mph. Hocevar was followed closely by Chandler Smith, Matt Crafton, Colby Howard, and Ben Rhodes in the top 5 fastest laps in terms of single lap speed
Obviously, we are looking at more than just single lap speed. Ben Rhodes and Stewart Friesen posted the fastest laps in the opening session. Rhodes, Hocevar, and Ty Majeski were the among the best drivers over the course of both sessions. Personally, I thought Majeski lacked the consistency compared to some of the other front-runners but is still worthy of top-tier recognition.
If I had to rank the top drivers, I would probably go Ben Rhodes, Carson Hocevar, and Chandler Smith among my top 3 drivers. I would also give nods of the cap to the likes of Matt Crafton, Colby Howard, and Hailie Deegan as drivers that exceeded expectations in the realm of practices. On the other side of the coin, John Hunter Nemechek, Brett Moffitt, Zane Smith, and Tyler Ankrum are guys that I would avoid going into Saturday’s heat races and main event!
2022 Draftkings Clean Harbors 150 Optimal Lineup
Heat races will start and conclude directly before the main event. Based on Draftkings rules, starting positions will not be decided until after the heat races conclude. Therefore, we are unable to post the optimal lineup until the starting positions have been finalized. Therefore, check back after the heat races for the optimal lineup before Saturday’s green flag in the Clean Harbors 150!
2022 Clean Harbors 150 Race Picks
*Final*
Chandler Smith +650 (1 unit)
Ty Majeski +1000 (.75 unit)
Carson Hocevar +2500 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Todd Gilliland -110 over Stewart Friesen (3 units)
Carson Hocevar -110 over Matt Crafton (3 units)
Chandler Smith -110 over Zane Smith (3 units)
Carson Hocevar +700 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
