2022 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 17th, 2022. 7:30PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Cup Series will take center stage Saturday for the running of the prestigious Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race for the final race in the opening round of the playoffs. For the first time in NASCAR history, both opening races in the playoffs were won by non-playoff contenders with Erik Jones’ victory at Darlington and Bubba Wallace’s win last week at Kansas. As it currently stands, Christopher Bell is the only driver that is definitely moving on to the Round of 12 for the points accrued over the past two weeks. Therefore, Saturday’s Bristol night race promises to be an exciting return to the concrete with playoff implications on the line.

In my personal opinion, I don’t think the Bristol night race needs any additional playoff drama because it is one of the more entertaining races of the entire year. With that being said, several of the top names in the sport are in jeopardy of an early playoff exit. Kevin Harvick is in a must-win type of situation, Kyle Busch is currently under the cut-off line, meanwhile heavy favorites like Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, and Chase Elliott are not exactly in safe situations either. Therefore, any bad luck or misfortune from those drivers will likely result in an exit from the championship race and shake up the playoff picture yet again.

Earlier today, Aric Almirola surprised everyone by capturing the Busch Pole award for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race with a speed of 128.382mph. The fast lap was Almirola’s 1st pole of the season in what can only be described as a disappointing season. However, the last two weeks of racing has reminded everyone that surprises cannot be excluded with the parity provided with these Next Gen machines and that creates another opportunity for drivers like Almirola again this Saturday. As we prepare for one of the more entertaining events of the season, let’s discuss the drivers that bettors should keep on their radar at Thunder Valley.

Bristol Betting Notes

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 career wins at Bristol
• Kyle Larson has the best average finishing position (8.6) over the last 10 races
• Erik Jones has the best career average finishing position (12.4) among active drivers
• Austin Dillon has finished in the top 15 in 6 of his last 7 starts at Bristol
• Cole Custer’s best career finish is 23rd in 3 career starts at Bristol
• Chris Buescher has just one top 15 finish in the last 9 starts at Bristol
• Aric Almirola has a measly 70.4 average driver rating over the last 5 races at Bristol

Practice Observations

Before Aric Almirola earned the pole in qualifying, Denny Hamlin posted the fastest lap in Saturday’s practice with a speed of 125.848mph. In practice, Hamlin led a diverse group of drivers inside the top 5 fastest speeds which included the likes of Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and AJ Allmendinger. Aside from the fast laps speeds, I was watching raw times in an attempt to determine the best race pace among teams in Saturday’s practice. In my observations and tracking, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Larson appeared to be the drivers that stood out amongst the competition. Harvick has been stellar at Bristol throughout his career with 3 victories and knowing his must-win situation in the playoffs this week; we can ensure the #4 team will go broke on Saturday. Hamlin has probably been the best overall driver for the 2nd straight year which makes him a threat each and every week; meanwhile Larson has “Kyle Busch’ energy at Bristol despite just 1 win in 13 career starts.

Outside some of the popular names, I thought guys like Aric Almirola and AJ Allmendinger far exceeded expectations in practice. Almirola’s value will obviously be slashed after his pole lap which is unfortunately because Almirola was high on my radar for H2H match-ups following practice. While Almirola’s value may have evaporated, Allmendinger still has some dark horse value for match-ups. The former Cup Series veteran has never been great at Bristol but was among the top 5 drivers in nearly every major consecutive lap category in practice. Allmendinger has never been in top-tier equipment while racing at Bristol so this could be a product of the veteran finally getting to showcase his speed at the half-mile bull ring in a more equal Next Gen Car.

Other drivers that also appeared to have solid speed in practice includes the likes of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Alex Bowman appeared to have really good long-run speed. Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, I was least impressed with the likes of Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Martin Truex who I expected to be strong this week. Additional drivers that did not appear to be firing on all cylinders, on the speed charts, also included Daniel Suarez and Austin Dillon. While these drivers do not necessarily constitute immediate fade consideration, these drivers did show unimpressive results and may not be on the right side of the handicapping equation going into Saturday.

Betting Targets

In terms of the drivers to beat on Saturday, I honestly feel like Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson have emerged as potential favorites in my eyes. Harvick has been sensational at Bristol over the years and this is the type of venue where he can overcome the disadvantages of Stewart-Haas Racing. Meanwhile, I feel like Larson has been one of the best drivers at Bristol over the last several years but he has not always got the finishes to show for it. While the Next Gen Car has produced parity this season, Bristol is the type of venue where the driver can create an edge because of the same parity. I feel like Larson has an excellent opportunity to showcase that edge in the first race at Bristol for the Next Gen Car on the concrete surface.

Obviously, race winning predictions are tough this week because track position will be so important in this car. No matter who is dominant Saturday evening, the driver with the best track position in the final 100 laps will be the guy to beat and that is something to keep in mind for bettors because nothing is guaranteed in the Bristol night race. Outside of Harvick and Larson, I would be ignorant if I did not mention Kyle Busch’s chances are strong going into Saturday. Personally, I just wish Rowdy had better betting odds before pulling the trigger. Drivers that do have the betting value that we desire include guys like Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, and Tyler Reddick. All 3 of those drivers have shown promising talent at Bristol but appeared to have been seemingly forgotten following mediocre sessions on Saturday. However, I would not shy away from any of those drivers, especially Reddick and Logano, who have shown good speed in recent weeks.

Judging by current odds, I believe Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Cole Custer are the best betting options among the 3 different tiers of favorites, intermediates, and bottom-tier options for Saturday. Custer has been basically a non-factor in the Cup Series this year and odds-makers have treated the Stewart-Haas Racing driver as such. As a result, Custer can usually be found in bottom-tier match-ups with solid prop bet potential. I don’t believe Custer is a bottom-tier talent despite the 2022 performances and I also believe Bristol is a place where Custer (like Harvick) can overcome the SHR struggles. Lastly for fantasy racing purposes, Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, and Austin Dillon are drivers across the 3 tier levels that deserve fantasy racing consideration.

Draftkings Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Optimal Lineup

2022 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +650 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +800 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1500 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2500 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +10000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Erik Jones -105 over Martin Truex Jr (3 units)
Kyle Busch -110 over Chase Elliott (3 units)
Michael McDowell -105 over Harrison Burton (2 units)
Cole Custer +200 to finish on lead lap (1 unit)
AJ Allmedinger +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Corey LaJoie +2000 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)