2022 Baptist Health 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 22nd, 2022. 1:15PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: FS1

Following a two week hiatus, NASCAR’s Camping World Truck Series will return to action this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. For the Truck Series, Saturday’s return to Homestead will be the final race of the season before the championship finale at Phoenix. As things currently stand, Ty Majeski is the only driver that is locked into the championship round courtesy of his victory at Bristol. As a result, 3 championship positions will be on the line for Saturday’s Baptist Health 200!

So far this season, the Truck Series has competed at 5 different 1.5 mile surfaces. In those races, the Truck Series has produced 5 different winners. Since we do not have any repeat winners or obvious winning trends, we will have to dig deepers into in-season performance statistics and make some handicapping observations to help guide our betting decisions. Historically, Homestead-Miami Speedway has produced great handicapping results for me personally and I believe that is because I know this track is difficult to drive. Similar to tracks like Darlington and Chicagoland, this rugged intermediate speedway typically favors the top driving talents in the sport and that is where handicapping sharpness can yield a clear edge.

From a handicapping perspective, I always consider the driver’s talent level an important factor in determining H2H match-ups at tracks like Homestead. As a rule of thumb, never make any wagers on the side against the better driver regardless of what equipment, practice and/or qualifying times suggests.The reason for this rule is simply because Homestead-Miami Speedway is a very difficult track to navigate. The surface has minimal grip and wears tires significantly. As a result, those raw talented drivers that can wheel it through low-grip conditions are going to emerge at the front of the field!

1.5 Mile Loop Data

Before we add any subjective driver talent thoughts towards betting targets, let’s first look at how the Truck Series’ drivers have performed at the 1.5 mile venues this season. In the data below, I have compiled loop data averages from all prior 1.5 mile races to shed light on those teams/drivers that have shown raw performance advantages at the intermediate layouts. After analyzing our loop data below, I did not see any clear identifiable trends. Obviously Chandler Smith and John Hunter Nemechek are at the top of the list but they are two of the best drivers in the series so that does not necessarily indicate an advantage from Kyle Busch Motorsports.

Meanwhile Zane Smith, Christian Eckes, and Ty Majeski have shared impressive results on the 1.5 mile tracks this season which does not correlate in any type of way. The things that do stand out to me with some handicapping significance include guys like Matt Crafton and Ben Rhodes who have underperformed despite teammates that have shown considerable success this season. If those drivers are not getting the job done, should we fade them against better drivers on Saturday to extract value in our favor? Meanwhile guys like Carson Hocevar,who appear negative to the overall betting public, continue to excel over all their teammates to indicate the driver is bringing more speed to those Niece Motorsports’ trucks. Therefore, should Hocevar be elevated on our betting radar this weekend?

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
John Hunter Nemechek	116.7	3.8	2.8	8.4	4.8	39	78	128	694
Ryan Preece	113.3	6.3	3.5	5.5	5.5	13	41	39	560
Zane Smith	111.9	7.2	6.8	8.8	7.0	60	97	177	688
Chandler Smith	105.2	5.6	11.0	5.4	8.8	59	37	32	694
Christian Eckes	104.6	8.6	8.0	10.0	6.6	11	25	50	686
Ty Majeski	103.5	5.2	10.6	7.8	7.6	32	36	19	694
Carson Hocevar	99.1	13.4	8.0	10.2	9.2	59	41	98	694
Corey Heim	97.0	2.3	8.3	15.7	9.0	-22	29	19	407
Stewart Friesen	93.3	9.8	10.8	9.6	11.4	37	29	60	693
Ben Rhodes	86.3	9.0	11.8	18.4	11.2	38	8	18	662
Derek Kraus	84.4	11.8	10.2	20.4	13.2	-32	12	2	632
Matt Crafton	81.1	12.8	17.0	11.8	13.2	46	7	5	692
Tanner Gray	80.8	9.0	13.4	14.0	11.8	-27	2	7	693
Matt DiBenedetto	77.7	17.0	12.2	10.6	13.8	42	3	0	693
Tyler Ankrum	73.3	19.2	10.0	20.0	14.2	-21	5	0	683
Chase Purdy	67.1	18.2	16.6	17.8	17.6	-46	0	3	692
Bret Holmes	64.9	29.7	17.3	13.7	19.3	-6	0	0	416
Colby Howard	62.1	20.8	23.6	20.6	21.2	23	8	0	578
Austin Wayne Self	55.3	22.5	21.8	19.0	22.0	20	2	0	557
Hailie Deegan	54.5	19.2	23.0	23.4	22.2	-21	0	0	600
Dean Thompson	54.3	21.6	25.2	22.8	24.6	-16	1	0	685
Jack Wood	51.7	20.0	21.6	24.8	23.4	-67	0	0	624
Tate Fogleman	51.4	26.5	21.8	21.0	24.8	-18	0	0	555
Timmy Hill	47.8	28.2	25.6	21.2	24.6	-24	0	1	687
Kris Wright	46.9	19.5	26.3	24.3	24.8	-19	0	0	514
Lawless Alan	44.6	29.4	24.0	24.4	25.0	-74	0	0	684
Tyler Hill	42.1	31.7	28.7	25.0	27.7	-1	0	0	412
Brennan Poole	41.0	28.3	30.3	30.7	28.3	-12	1	0	310
Spencer Boyd	32.0	30.8	30.0	28.8	30.2	-60	0	0	671
Blaine Perkins	31.1	28.0	32.6	30.8	31.8	-24	0	0	565

Betting Targets

I am posting this preview early because I want to jump on a few early betting lines. However, I will not be finalizing my betting lineup and/or betting selections until I am able to analyze practice speeds for final thoughts. Therefore, be sure to check back after practice for final thoughts stemming from on-track sessions. For now, I will lead off my predictions by stating that I believe John Hunter Nemechek should be the overall favorite by a good margin. Nemechek tops our loop data with a 116.7 average rating and has also historically excelled at low-grip venues which was evidenced with his victory at Darlington back in May. Therefore, Nemechek would be at the top of my betting list this week over guys like Ryan Preece and Chandler Smith.

Aside from Nemechek, I believe Carson Hocevar and Grant Enfinger are drivers that should produce solid betting value in the form of H2H match-ups. For Hocevar, I like his current odds that yield some value in both futures and prop wagers. However, both Hocevar and Enfinger are valuable pivots against favorites like Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, and Christian Eckes in the form of match-ups. Lastly, a bottom-tier talent that I would rate high on my betting radar, specifically for H2H-match-ups, include the driver of the #91 in Colby Howard.

Draftkings Baptist Health 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Baptist Health 200 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +350 (1.5 units)
Ty Majeski +800 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +1800 (.75 unit)
Carson Hocevar +2000 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

John Hunter Nemechek -145 over Ryan Preece (2 units)
Ty Majeski -110 over Corey Heim (2 units)
Carson Hocevar +300 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)