2022 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday September 25th, 2022. 3:49PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: USA

The opening round of NASCAR’s Cup Series’ playoffs provided a diverse range of outcomes in stunning fashion. Following last week’s chaotic round 1 finale at Bristol, some of NASCAR’s top names in the form of Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, and Kyle Busch have already been eliminated from championship contention. Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that none of the opening 3 races were won by championship contenders as Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace, and Chris Buescher all delivered huge upset style victories in 3 straight weeks. Needless to say, anything can happen with this Next Gen Car as the Cup Series rolls into Texas for the running of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 on Sunday.

Normally, I would be ecstatic to see numerous different race winners in recent weeks because that means that bettors should be getting opportunities for bigger potential winners. However, I must say that the most frustrating aspect to the last two races has been the lack of tire wear from GoodYear. Pit strategy and track position has essentially decided the last two races and that is something that is nearly impossible to handicap. I have similar anxiety going into Sunday’s lone Cup Series race this season at Texas in the possibility of track position deciding the outcome. As a result, we are going to throw an extra dark horse or two into our betting lineup this week for “win” (futures) bets in case that happens.

While this will be the Cup Series’ first and only stop this season at Texas, we did get the first glimpse of on-track activities early Saturday with practice and qualifying sessions. In yet another surprise, Brad Keselowski captured the pole for Sunday’s event with a lap of 188.990mph to earn his 1st pole since 2019. As many are aware, Keselowski captured his first win as an owner last week with RFK Racing with Chris Buescher’s victory at Bristol. However, RFK Racing has not shown a ton of speed at the 1.5 mile venues which makes today’s fast lap even more surprising. However, I will say that qualifying has not meant anything this season with the Next Gen Car and honestly the cars that have qualified well have been the cars to avoid more times than not this season. Therefore, let’s take a look at the drivers worthy of betting consideration.

Cup Series – 1.5 Mile Loop Data

Despite the overwhelming parity this season, I still want to take a look at the in-season performance data at the 1.5 mile venues this season. If nothing else, the loop data below will give everyone an idea towards where the majority of cars have trended in performance at the 1.5 mile venues. As you will see, Ross Chastain holds the top spot but Christopher Bell is surprisingly in the 2nd position. Bell is most notoriously known for his short track ability but he has been really good everywhere throughout the 2nd half of the season while popping in the #2 spot in our loop data rankings this week.

Through the remainder of the field, I would point out increasing statistical trends for Martin Truex Jr and Alex Bowman following summer lulls. Bubba Wallace has also come to life during the 2nd half of the season with his win at Kansas and jumped up several spots since the last time I compiled loop data metrics for the 1.5 mile venues. Drivers that are on the wrong side of the trends and performance indicators include the likes of Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and our pole-sitter Brad Keselowski. Therefore, keep some of those things in mind as we start looking at betting lines and potential match-ups.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Ross Chastain	112.8	14.0	10.3	8.0	5.8	35	98	240	1221
Christopher Bell	105.0	2.3	8.8	5.8	9.5	57	73	81	1221
Kyle Larson	103.7	12.0	11.0	5.3	8.5	125	61	107	1221
Alex Bowman	103.3	8.3	11.3	6.0	9.0	6	70	123	1221
Denny Hamlin	102.6	13.0	15.8	9.8	10.5	115	44	46	1166
Tyler Reddick	97.3	4.5	21.0	19.5	16.8	5	55	81	1017
Martin Truex Jr	96.4	11.8	7.8	7.8	10.3	147	64	25	1221
Kyle Busch	96.3	16.8	8.3	8.8	11.8	82	85	103	1219
William Byron	91.1	10.3	18.0	14.8	12.0	-5	38	43	999
Chase Elliott	85.9	13.5	10.8	20.5	13.8	39	32	96	993
Ryan Blaney	83.1	12.3	20.0	21.5	15.5	29	22	15	833
Bubba Wallace	83.1	13.5	17.0	16.0	14.5	90	28	59	1007
Joey Logano	82.4	16.3	7.3	17.0	11.3	-3	16	11	1212
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	75.6	27.3	18.5	16.5	16.0	82	20	7	1216
Chase Briscoe	70.0	11.0	17.8	19.0	18.0	3	22	2	1081
Daniel Suarez	70.0	16.8	24.3	26.3	20.8	65	72	44	961
Austin Cindric	69.4	5.3	21.0	19.0	17.5	-31	6	0	953
Austin Dillon	67.4	14.5	20.0	15.0	17.8	-177	2	3	1213
Kevin Harvick	65.8	20.0	20.5	16.5	20.0	26	2	0	987
Chris Buescher	62.9	22.8	20.0	21.5	20.3	1	8	0	1152
Erik Jones	60.5	23.5	23.5	26.5	19.8	41	4	0	1202
Michael McDowell	60.1	20.0	18.0	18.5	18.5	-12	0	5	1220
Aric Almirola	59.6	21.8	21.5	17.5	20.0	1	6	3	1218
Brad Keselowski	55.3	26.5	22.3	23.3	23.0	-23	5	3	999
Cole Custer	52.5	22.5	14.3	24.5	21.0	-108	3	0	1109
Ty Dillon	52.0	24.5	18.0	18.3	22.8	-129	0	1	1220
Noah Gragson	51.4	27.7	15.7	20.0	22.7	-5	0	0	919
Justin Haley	51.2	22.5	23.3	24.5	23.8	5	4	0	947
Harrison Burton	49.0	20.0	20.0	20.0	23.8	-102	0	0	1069
Todd Gilliland	46.1	30.8	20.5	21.8	24.3	-76	0	0	1219
Corey LaJoie	41.6	26.3	30.0	25.5	27.3	-36	2	0	715
Cody Ware	36.9	31.3	27.0	26.3	29.0	-112	0	0	1205
B.J. McLeod	31.9	33.0	30.5	28.5	31.8	-20	0	0	973

Practice Observations

In this afternoon’s practice for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500, Austin Dillon posted the fastest lap of the session at 187.643mph. Dillon is a former Texas winner (2020) but I would not get too excited about the top speed. The top 20 drivers were really close to each other in terms of single lap speed and we did not start seeing any disparity with lap times until about 10 laps into the run. In my observations of raw lap times, I thought Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott were the fastest guys from about the lap 10 mark and afterwards. For what it’s worth, I feel like Reddick has been fast in every practice in recent weeks but has failed to put things together for an entire event.

Granted, not all drivers attempted significantly long-runs in the relatively brief practice session. Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, and Ross Chastain were among the others that were really fast on shorter lap-run scales. I would also give positive mentions to guys like Noah Gragson and Austin Cindric who appeared to be much faster than anyone would have expected in terms of practice. Other drivers worth mentioning for the wrong reasons were surprisingly the Toyotas. The Toyotas have been so strong this year on the 1.5 mile layouts but guys like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Ty Gibbs appeared way off the race speed that most would expect going into the weekend.

Betting Targets

In terms of outright win (futures) bets, I think betting the favorites has become nearly ineffective with this Next Gen Car especially at these tracks where there is not any tire fall off. As a result, I cannot advocate betting on big favorites like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, or Chase Elliott. Though, I will say that Elliott appeared to be competitive in the speed department in practices. Instead, I am really paying attention to the drivers in the intermediate betting range or even deeper. In my opinion, Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman appear to hold considerable value based on current odds. I really want to throw Joey Logano into that bucket but I cannot shake the fact that the Ford teams have struggled at these 1.5 mile venues. With that being said, Logano (8.5) does have the 2nd highest average finish among all drivers behind Kevin Harvick over the last 10 races. Meanwhile guys like Erik Jones and Bubba Wallace remain valuable dark horses that will bring better ROI to better cards.

Despite the fact that picking “winners’ has been extremely difficult, we continue to do much better with our H2H match-up selections. Instead of having to pick single winners out of a group in a car designed for equality, H2H match-ups have been a much better way to identify sharp value for odds that may not be calibrated correctly with performance and handicapping trends. The drivers that provide the most value for that narrative this week include the likes of Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, and Erik Jones. I believe Bell is running way better than people recognize and has two 3rd place finishes in 3 career starts at Texas. As a result, I feel like Bell has some solid value among the upper echelon of the competition. Meanwhile, Bowman and Jones are guys that I believe are much better than current odds suggest and should provoke similar H2H value.

Draftkings Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Optimal Lineup

2022 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +1000 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1000 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +3300 (.75 unit)
Erik Jones +10000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Christopher Bell -120 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Tyler Reddick -130 over Martin Truex Jr (3 units)
Erik Jones +100 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Cole Custer +800 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +1500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)