2022 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday September 24th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: USA

Despite several weeks of playoff action in the Camping World Truck Series and Cup Series, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will finally get the chance to go playoff racing on Saturday with the running of the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway. For those wondering, the Xfinity Series has a slightly shorter playoff format (rounds/races) than the other touring series in NASCAR. For that reason, the Xfinity Series’ playoffs begin later in the season but will be critically important for drivers that are fighting for a championship title.

Fortunately for bettors, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series has already visited Texas Motor Speedway once this season. Back in the spring, Tyler Reddick recorded the first victory for Big Machine Racing by winning the SRS Distribution 250. Reddick essentially stole the show but the large takeaway from that event was the strength of the J.R. Motorsports cars who finished in 4 of the top 7 positions while leading a ton of laps in the process. As the series returns this Saturday, those J.R. Motorsports cars will be part of the spotlight again especially with Noah Gragson having won in each of the last 3 races.

Xfinity Series – 1.5 Mile Loop Data

Ultimately, bettors should have a general understanding for what to expect this weekend if you consider the race back in May combined with observations throughout the season. However if you are unfamiliar with how teams/drivers have performed in recent weeks or at similar venues, I have compiled loop data stats below from all 4 races this season on natural 1.5 mile layouts including the SRS Distribution 250 from Texas. As you will see, Ty Gibbs is stuck right in the middle of all 4 J.R. Motorsports cars. Needless to say, those are the only 5 drivers with a triple digit average rating.

Despite the fact Sam Mayer is listed on the lower end of the favorites, I will point out that Mayer was really strong back in the May event at Texas and perhaps deserves more consideration than what the data suggests. Other noteworthy observations in the compiled loop data, include positive betting potential in guys like Sam Mayer, Brandon Jones, and Jeremy Clements. I believe the data suggest negative betting potential for guys like Noah Gragson, Sheldon Creed, and Ryan Sieg!

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Justin Allgaier	121.6	8.3	3.5	4.5	4.8	69	84	158	659
Noah Gragson	116.8	4.3	10.3	10.8	10.0	56	96	140	588
Ty Gibbs	112.2	14.0	6.8	4.5	9.0	110	53	72	660
Josh Berry	111.3	6.0	4.0	4.8	7.0	27	54	135	660
Sam Mayer	105.3	6.8	9.0	10.0	6.8	19	21	27	658
A.J. Allmendinger	97.2	6.5	8.3	10.8	8.5	-12	23	32	658
Brandon Jones	94.7	7.8	12.5	11.0	9.3	59	10	8	658
Daniel Hemric	92.9	8.5	10.5	8.8	10.8	-8	5	0	660
Austin Hill	92.3	11.0	5.5	15.8	8.5	12	7	32	647
Landon Cassill	83.0	17.3	17.3	14.5	16.8	35	4	0	591
Riley Herbst	82.0	15.5	12.8	15.8	13.5	27	5	0	656
Sheldon Creed	81.0	12.5	21.3	13.0	15.3	53	5	5	658
Brett Moffitt	80.9	14.8	16.0	14.5	14.5	0	4	0	640
Jeremy Clements	66.8	17.8	20.8	17.5	18.3	-31	3	0	656
Jeb Burton	66.5	23.0	18.3	20.5	20.0	18	0	0	615
Myatt Snider	65.5	28.5	17.0	18.0	19.0	-9	0	0	657
Anthony Alfredo	60.6	28.5	21.3	25.0	20.8	26	0	0	538
Brandon Brown	60.4	23.3	25.3	19.8	22.5	5	0	3	651
Ryan Ellis	58.6	30.7	22.0	18.7	21.7	-23	0	0	545
Bayley Currey	57.1	24.3	21.3	23.0	22.5	-44	0	0	654
J.J. Yeley	56.3	22.0	23.8	22.8	23.0	-14	0	0	625
Ryan Sieg	54.9	16.8	25.3	29.5	25.3	-31	0	0	356
Josh Williams	51.2	26.3	21.3	23.7	24.3	-13	0	0	434
Stefan Parsons	49.3	23.0	24.8	26.8	25.8	-23	0	0	546
Mason Massey	45.1	27.0	34.0	25.3	28.0	-47	0	0	453
Joe Graf Jr	42.8	24.3	24.0	28.7	27.7	-40	0	0	470
Matt Mills	41.6	26.7	26.7	31.0	30.3	-41	0	0	368
C.J. McLaughlin	36.0	33.5	32.0	26.5	30.5	-20	0	0	651
Ryan Vargas	33.6	28.5	33.8	32.5	32.5	-23	0	0	467

Betting Targets

As we approach Saturday’s Andy’s Frozen Custard 300, we have not seen cars hit the track at Texas Motor Speedway. In fact, Xfinity Series teams and drivers will not practice and qualify until just hours before the race. From a betting strategy, I am waiting on practice and qualifying before I finalize my betting selections this weekend especially among the outright favorites. With that being said, we can still go ahead and dive into some drivers that warrant immediate betting consideration.

In terms of win bets, I would say that Justin Allgaier and John Hunter Nemechek should be among the top favorites this week. Allgaier has been the best driver on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year and Nemechek is getting a rare opportunity in the #18 for Joe Gibbs Racing. In top-tier equipment, Nemechek becomes an instant challenge based on his talent. With that being said, I still think the J.R. Motorsports cars have the overall edge in the speed department. The problem is that there are still some really talented drivers in the JGR camp (Gibbs and Nemechek) that are easily within striking distance.

Perhaps as I alluded before, Sam Mayer is at the top of my betting value list this week. Mayer is currently receiving intermediate style betting odds but has been one of the overall best drivers at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Mayer has the 2nd highest average running position and was also very good at Texas back in the spring. As a result, I think Mayer has imminent betting value. Other drivers that are high on my betting radar include the Kaulig Racing duo of AJ Allmendinger and Daniel Hemric. Hemric stands out as having excellent H2H value this week despite what many can consider a down year from an expectations standpoint.

Other deeper names for H2H/fantasy purposes that show value include Anthony Alfredo, Myatt Snider, and Ryan Ellis

Draftkings Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Race Picks

*Final*

John Hunter Nemechek +550 (1.5 units)
Josh Berry +750 (1 unit)
Sam Mayer +1000 (.75 unit)
Daniel Hemric +4000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Sam Mayer -125 over Brandon Jones (3 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -110 over Ty Gibbs (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -110 over Landon Cassill (2 units)