2022 Ambetter 301 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday July 17th, 2022. 3:18PM (EST)
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: USA

For the first and only time this season, NASCAR’s Cup Series will go racing at the Magic Mile when the green flag waves for Sunday’s Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Earlier today, Martin Truex Jr scored his 1st pole of the season with a fast lap of 127.113mph. Surprisingly, Truex is among the few big names in the sport that has not secured a win this season. However, the former Cup Series champion has been really strong at the short tracks in recent years and many believe that tomorrow’s stop in Loudon will be an excellent opportunity for the #19 team.

While Truex will garner some early attention after on-track activities from Saturday, I believe several drivers are worthy of being in the conversation this week. More importantly, New Hampshire Motor Speedway has traditionally been a strong track for handicappers if you can avoid the bad luck which plagued me in today’s Xfinity Series race. Therefore, I am eager to jump into the discussion and take aim at some quality H2H match-ups which should produce the bulk of our betting value.

Unlike most tracks this season, I’m not sure if New Hampshire Motor Speedway will deviate completely from historical trends. The Next Gen Car has established a completely new baseline for performance expectations this season but the Magic Mile is one of those venues where the driver can make a lot of difference especially on the long runs where tire management will be important. As a result, I believe bettors should target those drivers that have a knack for saving tires and also target those drivers that have historically performed well on the flat surfaces. While handling will also be important, I think the law of large numbers is important for Loudon and that is why we will not completely disregard historical trends this week.

Handicapping Notes

• Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with the most wins (4) in Loudon including 3 wins in the last 7 starts
• Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Kurt Busch all have 3 wins in Loudon
• Martin Truex Jr holds the best average finishing position (7.6) among active drivers over the last 10 races in Loudon
• William Byron has finished outside the top 10 in all 4 career starts in Loudon
• Brad Keselowski has finished inside the top 15 in 16 of the last 17 starts in Loudon
• Chase Elliott has two wins and a runner-up finish in the last 3 starts. Elliott also led 185 laps in the Martinsville race which is the most comparable venue
• Statistically, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is among the top 3 personal tracks for drivers like Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Cole Custer

Practice Notes

In Saturday’s Xfinity Series preview for the Crayon 200, I warned bettors to avoid the allure of qualifying results. Oftentimes if you qualify well at New Hampshire, you may not race as well and vice versa which is strictly a product of the importance of long run speed and how the handling changes over the course of green flag runs. Therefore, Saturday’s lone practice session should be given some merit especially for those cars that looked strong in race trim and due to the fact that cars were impounded after qualifying meaning teams cannot make any overnight changes.

With those things in mind, Kyle Busch was the driver that led nearly every race trim category with the fastest 10, 15, and 20 lap average. Busch was seemingly in a different zip code in race trim which is something we have not seen much from the Next Gen Car considering how close in proximity the new car has kept the competition. Meanwhile, guys like Chase Briscoe, last year’s winner Aric Almirola, Harrison Burton, and Kevin Harvick were among the drivers that clearly exceeded expectations in practice. William Byron, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Martin Truex Jr were among the more popular names that were also pretty solid in practice as well. On the other side of the fence, guys like Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell were among the group of competitors that were trending in the opposite direction on the stopwatch.

Betting Targets

We are still learning this Next Gen Car which I know sounds like a broken record however we are also still learning how to bet these events. With the old car, betting on favorites each week was nearly a given. With the current car, it is almost better to pivot against the favorites and shoot for value as the winning percentage on the value plays has elevated. If you were to force me into taking a few favorites for Sunday’s Ambetter 301, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex would be my choices for consideration. The downside is that Truex has not performed well all season and honestly his odds should be much better for a guy that has just 2 top 5 finishes for the entire year.

I would not be surprised if we saw another “surprise” winner just as we did last year with Aric Almirola. In fact, Almirola is a live underdog yet again this week after showing success on all the flat tracks this year. Along with Almirola, I believe guys like Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, and William Byron are prime betting options especially in H2H formats. Bell and Busch may be the sharper options and I must say that I really like both drivers as outright dark horses. Bell won 3 straight Xfinity Series races at Loudon and has been an excellent driver on flat surfaces. Likewise, Kurt Busch has somewhat revived his career with 23XI Racing and has been best on the flatter surfaces this year as shown by his results at Martinsville (6th), Gateway (3rd), and Nashville (2nd).

Draftkings Ambetter 301 Optimal Lineup

2022 Ambetter 301 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +800 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1200 (.75 unit)
Aric Almriola +1600 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2000 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kyle Busch -115 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Chase Briscoe -130 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Christopher Bell +100 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Drivers to lead a lap over 7.5 -110 (2 units)
Cole Custer +900 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)