2022 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 5th, 2022. 4:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will return to the Saturday afternoon spotlight this weekend with the running of the Alsco Uniforms 300 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Last week, Cole Custer captured a convincing victory at Auto Club Speedway against a tough field to earn Bobby Dotter and SS Green Light Racing the first victory of their Xfinity Series career. While Custer will not be in action this week, Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300 has just two former Vegas winners in the field meaning we could see another surprise winner for the 3rd week in a row.

If you missed my Auto Club Speedway recap, admittedly I missed Cole Custer last week in a big way. I did not believe Custer would have the equipment to contend with the Xfinity Series’ best last Saturday and I was proven wrong on several different fronts. However, I had the majority of the race handicapped pretty well outside of Custer and I am hoping that provides a rebound opportunity this weekend. Different from Auto Club Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway has more grip which yields less tire wear. In fact, drivers will have about 90-95% throttle time this Saturday which will put a heavy emphasis on raw aerodynamic speed.

Loop Data

I did not create any different loop data metrics to view for the Xfinity Series this week. Last week, I provided an excerpt from the final 3 races in 2021 at the “horsepower” tracks and I thought the metrics observed in that preview were pretty well replicated last week in Fontana. For example, the J.R. Motorsports cars all displayed solid speed last week at Auto Club Speedway and may be among the fastest cars in the garage now that Team Penske has exited the series. J.R. Motorsports captured the top 3 positions in the Alsco Uniforms 302 at Las Vegas last fall with Berry, Allgaier, and Gragson rounding out the top 3 positions. All 3 drivers deserve legitimate respect again this week as reliable favorites.

If you continue to look at the loop data from the end of 2021 and compare that with historical narratives at Las Vegas, A.J Allmendinger also stands out as a trustworthy option. Allmendinger won last year’s spring race at Las Vegas and also ranks 2nd in last week’s loop data at the horsepower tracks in 2021. While I typically don’t consider Allmendinger a 1.5 mile threat, the stats say otherwise and he has consistently produced the best speed from Kaulig Racing at similar layouts over the last two seasons. Before we transition into betting targets, keep in mind that the loop data stats shared last week and referenced again this week only provide a small sample size for the end of 2021. Obviously much has changed in the Xfinity Series, therefore these loop data stats should only be a small piece of the handicapping equation for Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300.

Betting Targets

Believe it or not, Noah Gragson has posted stellar numbers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway despite never visiting victory lane. In 6 career starts, Gragson has posted 5 top 5 finishes and has never finished worse than 6th. These stats include 3 different finishes of 3rd or better. I believe that is simply because Gragson likely has minimal “off throttle” time. Las Vegas favors raw speed and while drivers can be very consistent from the cockpit; the fastest cars usually prevail which is ironically an anomaly in NASCAR betting. Fortunately for Gragson, he may actually have the fastest equipment in the series in 2022.

If Gragson is unable to get the job done, Berry and Allgaier are obvious picks. Personally, I tend to favor Berry from an odds standpoint as I believe Allgaier is often overpriced. Aside from the outright favorites, sharp betting options especially in the realm of H2H match-ups include Sam Mayer, Austin Hill, and Joe Graf Jr. Obviously, these 3 drivers are scattered among different tiers in terms of expectations. Mayer has improved significantly in the Xfinity Series and has the J.R. Motorsports speed that I am anticipating. Despite a poor outing at Fontana due to issues, I am still a believer in the talent of Austin Hill which will shine with Richard Childress Racing. Lastly, Joe Graf Jr joins the #07 car following last week’s victory with Custer. While this would seem like a chasing play, Graf has actually performed well on the 1.5 mile tracks. With the #07 team’s partnership with Stewart-Haas Racing, this may be one of the better opportunities of Graf’s career and a top 10 is not out of the question.

Betting Fades

In terms of outright fades, I will gladly fade John Hunter Nemechek if he is given too much credit. Nemechek will be competing in the #26 for Sam Hunt Racing this week. While SHR has a partnership with JGR engineers, the #26 has performed poorly for the last two seasons with multiple drivers. Therefore if Nemechek is given too much credit based on name value, we may consider fading the #26 this week.

Other drivers that I am considering fading include the likes of Ty Gibbs, Myatt Snider, and Sheldon Creed. If you have followed my prior previews, I am probably one of Ty Gibbs’ biggest fans. With that being said, he has been elevated to unreasonable odds since the 2nd half of 2021. At tracks where driver input takes a back seat to raw speed, Gibbs is more valuable as a fade option based on probabilistic outcomes. Additionally, Myatt Snider and Sheldon Creed are also among my sharper fades. Snider is still in the worst equipment of his career and is an average talent at best. Meanwhile, Creed is one of those drivers that is going to show some skills at the shorter tracks but I am expecting him to struggle at the larger layouts as he gets more accustomed to the Xfinity Series.

Practice Observations

In Saturday’s rather brief practice session, Noah Gragson posted the fastest lap at 178.654mph. Gragson and teammate Sam Mayer took the first two fastest times while the JGR duo of Ryan Truex and Ty Gibbs took the top 4 positions. Truex is a name that I have not mentioned this week but will be getting one of the best opportunities of his career in the #18 this week. Much like his older brother Martin Truex throughout the early years of his career, Ryan has been a journeyman and this will be the best opportunity to see what he can do in strong equipment. I’m not necessarily looking to bet on Truex but will consider it if his odds get better.

In terms of averages, I thought Gragson was head and shoulders above the competition in the limited session. Granted, these brief practices are not the most reliable indicator. However, the #9 was clearly the class of the field for the limited on-track time. Aside from Gragson, I thought the Kaulig Racing cars of Daniel Hemric, AJ Allmendinger, and Landon Cassill were all solid. Hemric appeared to be the best of the group but I would not overlook Allmendinger who dominated this race last spring. Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, guys like Brandon Jones, Myatt Snider, and Jeb Burton all appeared to be on the negative end of value following lackluster practice times.

Draftkings Alsco Uniforms 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +550 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1050 (.75 unit)
Ryan Truex +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Noah Gragson -140 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Ryan Truex -105 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Ryan Sieg -110 over Anthony Alfredo (3 units)