2022 Alsco Uniforms 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 9th, 2022. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will be the closing act in a NASCAR double-header on Saturday when they make their return to the newly reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway. While the Truck Series will kick off the racing action on Saturday at Mid-Ohio, the Xfinity Series will officially kick off the weekend at Atlanta. Both Xfinity and Cup Series teams have returned to Atlanta for the 2nd time this season and we learned back in March that racing at the newly paved and reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway mostly resembles superspeedway racing. Therefore, bettors should prepare for a wild weekend from NASCAR’s top two touring series.

Back in March, Ty Gibbs basically stole a victory in the final laps to win the Nalley Cars 250. I say stole a victory only because Gibbs was outside the top 10 with less than 10 laps to go. Thanks to a bunch of cautions and restarts in the final laps, he was able to outduel Austin Hill and Ryan Sieg on the final restarts thanks to a big push from AJ Allmendinger on the final lap. However, that is the product of superspeedway racing just like we see at Daytona and Talladega. Rest assured, there will be more chaos on Saturday and there will likely be several drivers that have a shot to win this thing in the closing laps.

While I personally believe the racing at Atlanta is slightly tamer than Daytona and Talladega because the runs are not as severe, the Xfinity Series specifically had a ton of cautions back in the March race. Therefore we cannot rule out another wild afternoon. However if things do remain relatively calm, I would expect a lot of the “expected” names to be in contention. Guys like Gibbs, Noah Gragson, AJ Allmendinger, and others have proven to be very aggressive at the superspeedway races and have shown a knack for controlling the pack when out front. Those guys should be given all the respect going into Saturday but there are also several other drivers that deserve attention as well.

Superspeedway Betting Notes

• AJ Allmendinger has finished in the top 3 in all superspeedway races this season at Daytona, Atlanta, and Talladega
• Austin Hill (Daytona winner), Noah Gragson (Talladega winner), and Riley Herbst are the only other drivers with at least two top 5 finishes in the superspeedway races this season
• Austin Hill has led the most laps (117) at the superspeedway races this season
• Ryan Sieg has produced a 95.0 average rating or higher in 2 of the 3 superspeedway races this season
• Daniel Hemric has failed to finish all 3 superspeedway races this season
• The #48 car, driven by Daniel Hemric this week, has also failed to finish all 3 superspeedway races with different drivers this season

Betting Targets and Strategy

From a strategy perspective, Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 250 should be considered a highly volatile race just like any other superspeedway event. Since superspeedway events rarely yield any H2H value, I believe a downgraded wager size and sprinkle approach is usually the best way to approach these events. When I say downgraded wager size, I am referring to each betting option. If we downgrade our individual wager size, we can take more options (drivers) to increase our likelihood of cashing and still keep our risk as low as possible to compensate for the volatility of superspeedway racing.

With that strategy in mind, if I had to boil down my betting targets to a couple of favorites then I would look no further than Austin Hill and AJ Allmendinger. Both drivers have easily been the best in the Xfinity Series at the superspeedway venues this season and I really like their driving styles for this type of race if they can survive until the end. I think you could also make sound arguments for other top names like Gibbs, Gragson, and potentially even Tyler Reddick from a talent perspective. However, the odds on all of the top drivers is basically within the same range. With that being the case, give me Hill and Allmendinger among the upper echelon options.

For deeper dark horses or even prop bet options, guys like Ryan Sieg, Riley Herbst, and Jeb Burton. I know I mentioned Sieg and Herbst in some of the comments above. However, both drivers’ performance has been really impressive at the superspeedway venues this season and they offer legitimate value. Burton has been essentially forgotten as an Xfinity Series’ competitor after his departure from Kaulig Racing. However, Burton’s only career win came at Talladega last season and he has been surprisingly strong at the superspeedway races with Our Motorsports this season. I’m not necessarily advocating that Burton will make a return to victory lane on Saturday but I do believe he is one of the most underrated options on the board which may lend value in several ways.

Draftkings Alsco Uniforms 250 Optimal Lineup

2022 Alsco Uniforms 250 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +700 (1 unit)
Austin Hill +800 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1500 (.5 unit)
Landon Cassill +1800 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2500 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +3300 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +10000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Austin Hill -110 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Ryan Sieg +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)