2022 Ally 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 26th, 2022. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Nashville Speedway
TV: NBC

After two straight days of racing, NASCAR’s Cup Series will take center stage on Sunday for the premier event of the weekend with the running of the Ally 400 at Nashville Speedway. Despite the fact that all of NASCAR’s touring series competed this weekend, Sunday’s Ally 400 will be just the 2nd event in Cup Series competition in Music City. Last year, Kyle Larson won the inaugural race at Nashville in dominating fashion by leading 264 of 300 laps en route to victory. However, things could be much different on Sunday when the Cup Series returns with the Next Gen Car that has been very difficult to gauge on a week to week basis.

In prior previews this week, I have routinely mentioned World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway for comparison reasons. Nashville Speedway is a 1.33 mile concrete oval with a very flat surface. It is the largest fully concrete surface on the Cup Series with a relatively narrow racing groove which is very unique in comparison to most other venues on the schedule. The closest track that can draw some handicapping comparison to Nashville is the World Wide Technology Raceway which the Cup Series visited for the first time just a few weeks ago. In that race, Joey Logano emerged victorious over the Busch brothers for his 2nd victory of the season.

In the Enjoy Illinois back at Gateway, the Toyota alliance from Joe Gibbs Racing produced the most speed throughout the weekend despite an impressive performance from the Team Penske camp as well. So far this weekend, the Toyotas have definitely returned with some speed to Nashville which was seen earlier today with Denny Hamlin winning the Busch Pole Award with a lap of 160.413mph. In some ways, Hamlin caught a lucky break. After teams participated in the opening round of qualifying, the final round of qualifying was canceled due to rain which left Hamlin at the top of the leaderboard. However, there are numerous drivers that deserve discussion going into Sunday’s main event.

Handicapping Data

One important detail that does not necessarily fall in the realm of handicapping that should be mentioned is that the “heat” in Nashville will be a factor on Sunday. In today’s Xfinity Series race, we saw multiple drivers completely drained from the heat at the end of 250 miles which resulted in some drivers needing a trip to the hospital. In tomorrow’s 400 mile race at even hotter temperatures, we could see a similar storyline. Not that we can handicap for the heat but it is worth noting nevertheless.

Aside from practice observations below, I put together loop data metrics from in-season performance this year with the Next Gen Car at Martinsville, Dover, and Gateway. I mentioned the comparables between Gateway and Nashville earlier. However, I also added the two other venues (Martinsville and Dover) which have concrete/flat surface characteristics which I consider relatable. The loop data averages for those 3 races are somewhat surprising with Kyle Busch leading all drivers with a 113.8 average rating. Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, and Christopher Bell are the other drivers that round out the top 5 positions.

In reviewing the data, you can clearly see the parity provoked by the Next Gen Car with 18 of the top 20 drivers recording at least 9 fastest laps and nearly half of the top 20 leading a minimum of 25 laps. Aside from the parity narrative, I would point to the likes of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Kevin Harvick who are way down on the rankings. Harvick has been struggling for some time but Hamlin and Larson were the top two drivers in the sport last year. While both drivers have secured wins this season, they have been very inconsistent and it shows in this data sample. In terms of positive notes, Ross Chastain’s breakout season is evident in the data and I would also draw attention to the stats of Aric Almirola and Chris Buescher.

*Loop data reflects 2022 races at Martinsville, Dover, and World Wide Technology Raceway (Gateway)

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	113.8	11.0	7.3	5.3	7.3	45	88	169	1048
Chase Elliott	105.4	7.0	13.0	10.7	9.7	23	104	258	1048
Ross Chastain	100.1	14.7	19.7	5.3	10.3	51	71	86	1048
Ryan Blaney	97.2	7.3	12.7	11.3	10.3	44	72	25	1045
Christopher Bell	94.0	9.0	13.7	11.0	11.3	-21	33	0	1047
Aric Almirola	92.5	12.3	10.3	10.7	9.3	3	9	0	1047
Martin Truex Jr	92.2	17.0	12.3	13.3	11.3	19	83	47	1046
Joey Logano	91.5	14.3	14.3	10.7	13.0	17	42	22	1044
William Byron	90.7	20.7	12.7	14.0	12.7	4	75	212	1047
Alex Bowman	87.1	15.3	12.7	10.0	12.3	-8	26	2	1048
Chris Buescher	86.7	2.5	15.5	11.5	11.5	-12	13	18	803
Kyle Larson	86.2	8.7	16.7	12.3	12.3	-4	19	19	1048
Kevin Harvick	78.7	12.3	13.0	18.7	12.7	7	9	0	1038
Erik Jones	78.7	23.3	16.0	10.0	14.7	12	2	4	1048
Austin Cindric	78.2	9.0	18.0	19.3	16.3	-1	12	26	739
Kurt Busch	78.1	15.0	14.7	13.3	15.3	40	14	12	1036
Chase Briscoe	72.1	14.3	17.3	15.3	18.0	-25	19	27	1048
Austin Dillon	69.8	25.3	12.0	13.7	17.7	-28	35	1	1046
Denny Hamlin	68.6	11.0	26.0	27.7	22.0	67	44	67	1033
Brad Keselowski	64.7	19.7	18.3	19.0	17.7	0	4	0	1047
Tyler Reddick	64.0	17.3	8.3	21.3	17.3	-7	10	0	1038
Cole Custer	62.9	15.7	22.7	21.7	19.3	-9	6	0	1047
Michael McDowell	61.7	20.7	16.7	20.0	19.0	-12	4	34	1044
Bubba Wallace	60.7	16.0	16.7	19.3	18.3	-15	2	0	1047
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	59.9	23.3	22.7	20.3	21.7	-1	10	0	1041
Justin Haley	58.3	19.7	20.0	18.7	22.7	-54	8	19	1043
Daniel Suarez	58.0	20.3	14.3	22.0	21.0	9	21	0	1044
AJ Allmendinger	56.5	30.0	16.7	22.3	23.0	14	14	0	967
Harrison Burton	46.8	24.3	25.0	25.0	25.0	-17	0	0	1043
Todd Gilliland	42.4	22.0	23.7	26.7	25.3	-31	0	0	1040
Ty Dillon	41.7	30.3	19.7	25.7	26.3	-36	0	0	1042
Corey LaJoie	41.5	22.0	29.0	28.7	28.0	-28	1	0	868
Cody Ware	30.0	31.3	32.0	34.0	32.7	-11	0	0	798
Josh Bilicki	28.8	33.3	33.3	31.7	33.0	-35	0	0	1017
B.J McLeod	25.6	33.0	34.7	33.7	34.7	6	0	0	544

Practice Notes

Before qualifying earlier today, Cup Series teams participated in a full practice session on Friday which resulted in Bubba Wallace capturing the fastest time at a speed of 161.708mph. Wallace’s fast lap was not a fluke either as the driver of the #23 posted the best overall average in practice which included top times in the fastest 10 and 15 lap categories. The only other driver that I would consider even in close proximity to those times included Kyle Busch in the #18 who leads our loop data rankings above.

It’s worth noting that all of the Toyotas appeared relatively strong. Even the struggling Martin Truex Jr had one of his best practices of the year and displayed really good long-run speed. Behind the Toyotas, I would say Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson were expectedly strong. On the other side of the coin, I thought all of the Ford manufacturers were relatively off on the speed charts. Guys like Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano were far down the speed charts from where we would expect those big names. Perhaps Chase Briscoe was a name among the Ford camp that looked decent in terms of long-run speed but it was pretty evident the Fords, as an organization, were struggling in practice.

Betting Targets and Fades

To put things into perspective and narrow down our betting focus, I am gravitating towards Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain as the drivers to target among the favorites. Busch spun during his qualifying effort and will start from the rear. While that will likely deter some people, I believe Busch is getting some additional value that we would normally not get barring the qualifying debacle. For Chastain, I simply think he checks all the right boxes and has been solid in every way throughout the weekend. I made a handicapping note about Chastain’s run at Nashville in 2021 with Chip Ganassi and I believe he will be a force on Sunday.

While we could ultimately discuss possibilities for numerous drivers with this Next Gen Car, I want to keep our focus dialed in on targets this week. With that being said, I am a big fan of Christopher Bell, Aric Almirola, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr in terms of H2H options. Bell is a great pivot among the top guys that should beat the majority of intermediates. Bell has been running right with Busch in accordance with our loop data metrics and finished 9th in this race last year. Personally, I believe Bell has some legit value as potentially being the top Toyota especially if Rowdy has trouble. Aric Almirola had one of his best performances of 2021 at Nashville and is another driver that stood out in the loop data stats. Now I will state that due to the Ford manufacturer’s struggles in practice, Almirola may be paired against other Ford competitors in his odds range just for safety. Lastly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr has consistently run well this season with this Next Gen Car and brought home a 6th place result in last year’s Ally 400. I’m not nearly as confident in Stenhouse as the other H2H options but he still has some sleeper value.

In terms of fade candidates, Kevin Harvick is an obvious choice for fade possibilities. I mentioned earlier that the Ford teams are struggling and Harvick has been struggling individually throughout the season as well. I just don’t see those struggles improving at a place like Nashville. Perhaps more sharper options to fade include drivers like Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace. Obviously Blaney is the most prestigious name on that list but I really don’t like how this track fits into Blaney’s driving style. I believe we can get much better opposition pairings against Blaney this week and he is one of my favorite fades. For Wallace, his odds are mirroring the likes of Chase Briscoe, Aric Almirola, and others whom I trust way more over the course of 400 miles. Sure Wallace showed great speed in practice but look where he traditionally runs at similar venues this season. Needless to say, I’ll take my chances fading the #23.

2022 Draftkings Ally 400 Optimal Lineup

2022 Ally 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +800 (1.5 units)
Kyle Busch +900 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1400 (.75 unit)
Christopher Bell +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ross Chastain -130 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Christopher Bell -115 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Kurt Busch -110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Aric Almirola +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)