2022 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday April 23rd, 2022. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off the racing weekend on the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway on Saturday with the running of the Ag-Pro 300. The last two Xfinity Series events were shrouded in drama following some rough and arguably dirty short track racing at Richmond and Martinsville. After a rare off week, the Xfinity Series will put the short tracks in the rearview and battle it out on the biggest oval in the sport. However, something tells me that the drama is far from over and bettors could be in for another chaotic race on Saturday.

Fortunately with the addition of a new Atlanta Motor Speedway which now races like a superspeedway, we have already had multiple superspeedway races this season. Austin Hill provided a polarizing debut with a victory at Daytona and Ty Gibbs captured his 2nd of 3 wins this season at Atlanta. As we look for betting opportunities for Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300, we will discuss observations from both Daytona and Atlanta, drivers that typically run well at the superspeedway venues, and ultimately factor in current betting odds into the equation to see where “value” resides for Saturday’s event.

Daytona and Atlanta

I mentioned above that Austin Hill and Ty Gibbs pulled out the first two victories of the season at the superspeedway venues of Daytona and Atlanta. What bettors may not be aware of is that Austin Hill, AJ Allmendinger, and Riley Herbst have all finished in the top 5 in both of those races as well. Following Hill’s victory at Daytona, he displayed another strong result at Atlanta with the 2nd highest driver rating (104.0) in the field which resulted in a runner-up finish. Along with Hill, AJ Allmendinger is the only other driver to post triple digit average driver ratings in both events. Allmendinger finished in the runner-up position at Daytona and finished 3rd at Atlanta following another strong performance which involved a race high 41 laps led.

In my personal opinion, I think Allmendinger’s performance is underrated because he did it without the help of his Kaulig Racing teammates in both races. Kaulig Racing has laid the blueprint around “teamwork” at the superspeedway venues in recent years but they have yet to have a chance this season to all be together at the end of the race. If Allmendinger can survive the chaos yet again on Saturday and perhaps get some help, he instantly becomes one of the overall favorites. Meanwhile, Riley Herbst is a name that will likely continue to fly under the radar. If you look back at my Daytona and Atlanta previews, I mentioned Herbst in both previews as a live dark horse and nothing has changed going into Saturday. Herbst seems to have a knack for staying out of trouble and charging in the later stages which is exactly what you need from a betting target for this style of racing.

While finishing positions can be somewhat misleading at times in superspeedway events, I think it is important to name a few other drivers that really performed well at Daytona and Atlanta despite the recorded finishing positions. Drivers that fall into that category include the likes of Daniel Hemric and Noah Gragson among the more popular names. Hemric is a driver that I feel could really benefit from the Kaulig Racing superspeedway philosophy but he has to find a way to stay out of trouble. Meanwhile, Noah Gragson has been a strong superspeedway talent throughout his career in the Xfinity Series. Other notable mentions further down the pecking order include drivers like Landon Cassill, Brandon Brown, and Jade Buford.

Betting Targets

For transparency, I always make the sideways comment that anyone could outline betting targets at the superspeedway venues and either look like a fool or a genius depending on the outcome. While there is no denying single-race luck, the formula for success is targeting the drivers that have the highest likelihood of being in position for a victory combined with the drivers that have sufficient ROI in their betting odds. Unfortunately most of the drivers that I mentioned above due to their performances at Daytona and Atlanta, odds-makers are also aware of those trends because the betting odds for Allmendinger, Hill, and Herbst have been slashed significantly from where they were in both prior events.

As a result, I may play the waiting game on some of our picks following Friday’s qualifying. Odds makers routinely overreact to qualifying results and perhaps we can steal some value if any of those aforementioned targets have a bad qualifying effort. In terms of drivers that may warrant some immediate attention, Brandon Brown stands out at 40 to 1 odds. I hit Brandon Brown at 50 to 1 odds in last year’s fall race at Talladega which remains the only win of Brown’s career. It’s rather unusual that so many of the drivers I mentioned previously whose odds have been slashed in half yet the the most recent winner at Talladega is getting excellent value. For that reason, Brown is one of those plays you can likely jump on sooner than later.

A few other drivers that are in the dark horse category that I would keep on radar this week include the likes of Ryan Sieg and Kaz Grala. Sieg always gets overlooked at the superspeedway races but he has historically performed well. At Talladega, Sieg has recorded top 5 finishes in 2 of his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Kaz Grala is a name that has popped on my radar this week for multiple reasons. I was originally tracking Jade Buford as an extreme dark horse but Big Machine Racing replaced Buford with Kaz Grala over the next two races.

While the timing of the replacement is surprising, the one thing that has been constant is that the #48 team has been very competitive this season following their new alliance with Richard Childress Racing. Furthermore, Grala is considered more of a road course style threat and because of that moniker he has been somewhat of a journeyman in NASCAR to this point in his career. However, Grala’s first Xfinity Series start resulted in a 4th place finish at Daytona in 2018 and he backed up that performance with a 5th place result at Daytona in the July race that same season. Because of Grala’s limited schedule, he has not received many superspeedway opportunities and this will be one of his better opportunities with the #48 team this weekend. As a result, Grala is a driver that has some lottery style dark horse appeal especially in the form of prop bets.

Draftkings Ag-Pro 300 Optimal Lineup

2022 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

*Final*

AJ Allmendinger +800 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1000 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +1600 (.75 unit)
Jeffrey Earnhardt +2000 (.5 unit)
Kaz Grala +4000 (.5 unit)
Brandon Brown +4000 (.5 unit)
Anthony Alfredo +8000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kaz Grala +800 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Myatt Snider +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)