2022 A-Game 200 Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday April 30th, 2022. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: Dover International Speedway
TV: FS1

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will attempt to tame the Monster Mile on Saturday when the green flag waves for the A-Game 200 at Dover International Speedway. Earlier today, Xfinity Series’ teams participated in a 30 minute practice session which was followed by qualifying to set the grid for tomorrow’s 200 mile event. Throughout both earlier sessions, Brandon Jones emerged as the fastest guy in Dover. Jones posted the fastest lap in practice before backing up his effort with a pole winning fast lap of 157.398mph and therefore will get the opportunity to lead the field to the green flag for the running of the A-Game 200.

Brandon Jones’ fast times earlier today were slightly surprising given Jones’ historical resume at the Monster Mile. In 11 career starts, Jones has posted just one top 5 finish which occurred back in 2020. As a result, I am skeptical if Jones’ will be able to back up his dominant sessions on Friday with a trip to victory lane tomorrow. However, the argument could be made that there are no clear favorites with the exception of Ty Gibbs who has won 3 times already this season. Justin Allgaier is the only former Dover winner in the field and tomorrow’s lineup includes appearances by John Hunter Nemechek, Chandler Smith, and Anthony Alfredo who are in part-time rides. Nemechek actually returns to the #18 car with Joe Gibbs Racing for the 2nd time this season following the controversial runner-up finish at Richmond that included teammate Ty Gibbs practically running through him in the final corner.

Obviously, Nemechek should pose a threat to the typical Xfinity Series’ favorites which includes the likes of Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson, and AJ Allmendinger. The unique observation about those overall favorites is that none of those drivers have exceptionally strong resumes at the Monster Mile. With that being said, I do believe there are other drivers in the field this week that could get into contention and perhaps that will present some solid betting opportunities. Before we settle on our final betting targets, let’s discuss some of the notable observations from today’s on-track activities at Dover!

Practice Notes

I mentioned earlier that Brandon Jones posted the fastest lap in Friday’s 30-minute practice session. Despite the limited time, most teams/drivers took advantage of the time given and made 20-30 lap runs which may provide us a glimpse into what to expect on Saturday. In today’s practice, I personally thought all of the JR. Motorsports’ cars looked very competitive. I have had Justin Allgaier on my radar all week but Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, and even Sam Mayer were really solid on the speed charts. However, I believe all of those drivers were chasing John Hunter Nemechek for the title of “fastest guy in town.” Simply put, Nemechek’s lap times were really impressive and that includes on the long-run too which is very important for a place like Dover.

On the other side of the spectrum, Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger, and Daniel Hemric were names that appeared to be less than impressive from what we typically expect. I actually have Gibbs on my potential “fade” list this week because he has never been great at Dover even in ARCA competition. However, it’s never advisable to fade the best talent in the series either. For Daniel Hemric specifically, I felt like the #11 team missed the mark completely. Hemric was way down the speed charts and things did not get better in qualifying with a measly 17th place result. As a result, keep Hemric on that list of drivers that may be worth fading on Saturday.

Betting Targets

If you can get your hands on John Hunter Nemechek for decent value, I think he is the top guy going into Saturday’s event and perhaps with a chip on his shoulder from letting one get away back at Richmond. Aside from Nemechek, I am targeting Justin Allgaier and Josh Berry in potentially all formats. Allgaier has been absolutely outstanding at Dover and deserves more respect than what he is getting. Not only is Allgaier a two-time Dover winner but he has finished no worse than 3rd in 7 of the last 8 races at the Monster Mile. Needless to say, that is the type of consistency we want from a driver to target in all formats.

For Josh Berry, I have him as an option to pivot against the top favorites this week. I nearly put Brandon Jones in this pivot spot among drivers that are on the far side of the “favorites” category however Jones just does not have the resume that I typically want from a confidence perspective. Meanwhile, Berry seems to excel on the concrete surfaces and also posted the best overall average (all laps) in practice earlier today. While I think that stat is sometimes misleading based on the number of laps run, Berry’s speed was still good enough to consider as an option who could challenge at the front of the field on Saturday.

For deeper H2H or even fantasy racing options, I would encourage bettors to look towards the likes of Ryan Sieg and Chandler Smith. Perhaps Parker Retzlaff and Rajah Caruth deserve nods of the cap in this category as well. However, I am unable to find any match-ups that include those two prospects. Sieg and the #39 team suffered an axle issue in qualifying which pushed him back to the 38th start position. Before the axle issue, the #39 team looked solid on the speed charts and I expect that will likely get lost in translation compared to his qualifying result. Meanwhile, Chandler Smith will be making his 2nd Xfinity Series start of the season with Sam Hunt Racing. While Smith does not have a ton of Dover experience, this track fits his driving style and also I would mention that the Sam Hunt Racing program has been pretty solid this year. John Hunter Nemechek captured a 5th place result at Phoenix for the #26 team while the likes of Jeffrey Earnhardt and Parker Chase have captured top 20 results. With Smith’s talent level, he may be a driver that could sneak in a back-door top 10 result if things go their way.

Draftkings A-Game 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 A-Game 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +600 (1.5 units)
John Hunter Nemechek +750 (1.5 units)

H2H Match-ups and Props

John Hunter Nemechek +175 finishes Top 3 (2 units)
Justin Allgaier -115 over Noah Gragson (2 units)
Ryan Sieg -145 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)