2021 Xfinity Series Championship Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 6th, 8:30PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last night, Ben Rhodes pulled off a mild upset to win the Camping World Truck Series Championship. Chandler Smith was the driver that actually pulled out the victory in the Lucas Oil 150 but Rhodes’ 3rd place finish was best among the championship contenders which provided the Truck Series veteran with his 1st career championship. Tonight another champion will be crowned with the running of the Xfinity Series Championship Race as Austin Cindric, AJ Allmendinger, Daniel Hemric, and Noah Gragson battle it out for 200 miles at Phoenix Raceway.

Austin Cindric is the reigning Xfinity Series Champion and will enter tonight’s race as the overall favorite. Not only is Cindric the defending winner of this race but he also won the Call 811 Before You Dig 200 at Phoenix back in March. Cindric led 119 laps to score the victory over Ty Gibbs in that particular race and more importantly proved that he has a knack for getting around Phoenix. Noah Gragson finished runner-up to Cindric in last year’s finale in the best finish at Phoenix in his career. Gragson’s win at Martinsville last week sealed his championship chances and personally I believe he is the guy that could spoil the show.

Meanwhile AJ Allmendinger and Daniel Hemric will also be battling hard to seal their championship hopes. Hemric has been extremely consistent this season but is still searching for that elusive 1st victory. Allmendinger has been among the best drivers throughout the year and is tied with Cindric for the most wins (5) on the season. Allmendinger has not been great at Phoenix throughout his career but did post his best finish (5th) in Xfinity Series competition back in the March race this year. Hemric has not performed well in recent trips to Phoenix but does have two top 5 finishes in 7 career starts which includes a runner-up finish in 2018. Needless to say, all of our championship contenders have the potential to get the job done on Saturday.

Loop Data

From a betting standpoint, we must keep our options open throughout the entire field. As proven last night, the championship contenders do not always pull out the victory and perhaps we could take advantage of those drivers that could play spoiler in tonight’s race. To provide everyone a baseline of expectations, I compiled loop data averages from the races at Phoenix, Loudon, and Richmond this season. I specifically chose those 3 venues because they are the closest in comparison with Phoenix Raceway and have a lot of similarities that are required from the driver seat.

In the loop data stats below, Austin Cindric holds a relatively sizable lead over all other competitors with an impressive 125.8 average rating. Cindric leads all major categories which includes average running position, laps led, and fastest laps. If you combine those facts with Cindric’s history at Phoenix, he is clearly the driver to beat going into tonight’s green flag. Other notable mentions include Justin Allgaier, Hemric, Allmendinger, Harrison Burton, and Justin Haley who all have triple digit averages. Stylistically, Allgaier’s driving style is perfect for the Phoenix/Richmond layouts where drivers must slow-roll the corners and save tires. Allgaier has two wins at both Phoenix and Richmond. While Allgaier’s recent finishes have not been great at Phoenix, he has led at least 50 laps in each of the last 4 races and deserves to be kept on everyone’s radar.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Cindric	125.8	2.7	3.0	7.0	3.7	10	84	169	650
Justin Allgaier	114.3	7.3	5.7	4.7	6.0	6	56	32	650
Daniel Hemric	109.6	8.7	4.0	10.7	5.3	0	49	61	650
Harrison Burton	107.2	6.3	9.3	8.7	7.0	49	52	43	650
AJ Allmendinger	104.6	6.0	3.7	11.7	5.7	-5	36	68	650
Justin Haley	101.2	3.7	9.0	11.3	7.7	-25	8	0	649
Jeb Burton	94.7	4.3	18.0	9.0	14.3	23	3	16	650
Noah Gragson	92.6	5.3	18.3	18.0	14.7	-6	16	22	517
Riley Herbst	88.7	20.7	10.3	6.3	13.3	22	2	0	650
Brett Moffitt	85.9	13.5	10.5	9.0	12.5	28	0	0	400
Josh Berry	83.8	21.0	9.3	22.7	14.3	43	4	0	596
Myatt Snider	83.3	14.7	12.0	14.3	13.3	6	3	0	650
Brandon Brown	80.7	16.7	13.7	9.3	15.3	-9	0	4	650
Ryan Sieg	78.8	17.7	13.3	21.0	16.3	2	1	2	583
Jeremy Clements	73.5	9.3	17.7	17.0	16.0	-34	2	0	650
Brandon Jones	73.4	13.7	21.3	30.3	21.0	25	9	2	517
Michael Annett	63.1	9.0	29.5	30.0	22.0	-11	1	0	343
Alex Labbe	61.9	21.3	24.3	29.0	23.3	-37	2	0	618
J.J Yeley	61.6	32.7	26.7	21.7	22.0	36	3	0	645
Tommy Joe Martins	60.2	18.7	28.0	25.0	23.7	17	16	5	624
Kyle Weatherman	58.7	30.7	23.3	22.7	24.0	-3	0	0	612
Jade Buford	57.3	22.7	21.3	24.7	23.7	-22	1	0	644
Josh Williams	54.9	17.0	26.7	22.0	25.3	-16	0	0	647
David Starr	45.7	37.3	26.0	25.3	26.7	4	0	0	646
Landon Cassill	45.7	26.7	25.0	28.7	29.0	-17	0	0	576
Joe Graf Jr	45.4	23.0	28.7	26.7	28.3	-81	0	0	645
Jeffrey Earnhardt	44.7	24.3	31.3	25.0	30.0	-28	0	0	645
Matt Mills	39.2	28.7	32.3	29.3	31.7	5	0	0	602
Spencer Boyd	35.6	37.5	32.0	33.0	32.0	14	2	0	442
Ryan Vargas	34.5	23.0	35.0	31.3	34.0	-43	0	0	639

Friday’s Practice

Xfinity Series’ teams and drivers did get an opportunity to practice Friday afternoon which should help our handicapping efforts. After the lone 50 minute session, John Hunter Nemechek topped the charts with a lap of 130.388mph. Nemechek returns to the #54 machine this week which has won 2 of the last 3 races including Nemechek’s victory at Texas. Aside from the fast time from Nemechek, I was most impressed by Noah Gragson especially in terms of long-run speed. Gragson displayed tremendous long run speed and perhaps we should pay closer attention to the driver of the #9 who has won 3 times in the last 9 races which includes the similar layout of Richmond.

For clarity, I thought all of the championship drivers fired off well in terms of short-run speed. However as many witnessed in the Lucas Oil 150, long-run speed is likely the difference in determining a winner and/or champion. On the other end of the spectrum, I did not see anything special from the likes of Allmendinger, Allgaier, or any other of the intermediate options. Brandon Jones showed some decent speed but I was not convinced at the consistency of the #19. Further in the back of the pack, I was also surprised with the speed from Sheldon Creed in the #78 car. Creed is driving for B.J. McLeod Motorsports this week with rather subpar equipment but displayed solid laps times among the drivers in the 2nd half of the pack.

Betting Targets

For futures (win) bets, it is really hard to ignore Austin Cindric this week. I know he is the square play but he is checking off too many boxes to be ignored. With that being said, there is not much betting value in outright win odds with 5 different drivers listed in the 5-1 range or less. To have that many drivers at short-odds is absurd for any NASCAR race and will be one of the main reasons that I keep my win bets conservative. Ultimately, I don’t want to discourage anyone from closing out the season with a bang however I will point out that most of the value appears to be within H2H plays for tonight’s event.

In terms of H2H bets, I will have a more aggressive approach. I believe Noah Gragson has sharp value and there are a few match-ups where Gragson appears to have a clear edge. I would echo similar sentiments for the likes of Harrison Burton and Justin Haley. Both drivers are highly rated in our loop data stats above and are paired against very average opposition in match-ups for tonight’s event. As a result, I like Haley and Burton has potential H2H targets as well. Another name I would throw out that could provide deep dark horse value and H2H appeal is the #98 of Riley Herbst. Herbst finished in the top 5 at Phoenix back in the spring and also recorded a top 5 finish at Richmond a few weeks ago. Herbst is considered a very mediocre driver from an odds standpoint this week and I believe that provides some potential value especially in H2H match-ups.

Draftkings Xfinity Series Championship Race Optimal Lineup

2021 Xfinity Series Championship Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +350 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +800 (.5 unit)
Harrison Burton +1500 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Noah Gragson -110 over AJ Allmendinger (3 units)
Riley Herbst -110 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)
Riley Herbst +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)