2021 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 31st, 2021. 2:00PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series has spent the last few weeks in a grueling battle to determine the drivers that will have an opportunity to run for a championship in the season finale at Phoenix Raceway. Currently, Kyle Larson is the only driver that has secured his championship bid with an amazing run of 3 straight victories over the last 3 races. For the remaining 7 drivers still in playoff contention, everything will come down to this Sunday’s running of the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway which will decide the final 3 spots for those drivers that will be among the Championship 4 at Phoenix.

From a betting standpoint, Martinsville Speedway provides an unconventional betting venue. The half-mile paperclip is unlike any other track on NASCAR’s schedule which features a rhythmic driving style that focuses on braking and corner exit. If you look through NASCAR’s other venues, we can find some tracks that share similarities with Martinsville. New Hampshire Motor Speedway probably shares the closest resemblance in driving style but at the end of the day, Martinsville is truly a one of a kind venue. As a result, I don’t think the rules package performance will be quite as important this week. Personally, I have put a lot of focus on the different performance trends from the 550hp and 750hp rules packages this season and it has been a successful handicapping strategy for a lot of different venues. However due to the uniqueness of Martinsville, I believe the most appropriate betting angle this week will be to pay close attention to historical performance from drivers at the paper-clip.

Loop Data

With the historical narrative in focus, I have compiled just one viewpoint this week which pertains to loop data statistics for the last 5 races at Martinsville Speedway. As you will see, Martin Truex Jr currently owns the best average rating (121.7) which stems from his 3 victories in the last 4 races at Martinsville. Truex’s most recent victory came in the Blu Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 back in April. Truex only led 20 laps in that race compared to the 276 laps led by Denny Hamlin who nearly dominated but nevertheless Truex emerged victorious for the 3rd time in the last 4 starts.

Aside from Truex, I would point out the fact that 6 drivers have created a large separation from the rest of the competition. Behind Truex, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin have all produced triple digit ratings. Hamlin has 5 wins at Martinsville which is the most among active drivers while Keselowski (2), Logano (1), and Elliott (1) are also former Martinsville winners. For those 6 drivers, the data element that stood out to me was the category of “laps led.” Each of those 6 drivers have led at least 225 laps and have combined to lead 90% of all laps over the last 5 races which clearly points to a separation of power.

Other notable mentions in terms of the historical loop data includes the subpar averages from typical favorites like Kyle Busch (2) and Kevin Harvick (1) who are also former Martinsville Speedway winners. Busch has finished in the top 5 in exactly 50% of his 32 career starts but has finished 9th or worse in each of his last 4 starts. Ultimately, I will concede the fact that there are not many true “surprises” in our loop data breakdown and that should be somewhat expected due to the difficulty of consistently running upfront at Martinsville. However, I do think there are some notable drivers that will warrant betting and/or fantasy consideration that we will discuss below.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	121.7	5.0	5.8	6.6	4.8	24	328	745	2499
Ryan Blaney	115.5	7.6	2.2	4.8	5.6	63	184	227	2500
Chase Elliott	113.8	6.6	11.0	9.2	8.8	95	267	286	2445
Joey Logano	106.3	4.4	8.8	8.0	6.4	-25	108	264	2500
Brad Keselowski	106.0	7.0	7.0	8.8	9.4	53	135	454	2385
Denny Hamlin	101.7	4.8	8.4	9.4	9.2	36	175	348	2497
Kyle Busch	92.5	10.8	10.6	11.0	11.4	22	83	5	2499
Kevin Harvick	90.2	10.2	14.2	10.8	11.8	-7	62	0	2499
William Byron	88.3	15.2	10.8	14.2	12.2	48	91	9	2438
Kurt Busch	87.1	15.8	11.6	10.6	12.4	58	19	23	2498
Kyle Larson	86.5	13.0	12.7	10.7	11.7	-4	25	6	1500
Alex Bowman	82.3	13.2	12.6	18.0	13.6	-25	49	1	2378
Aric Almirola	78.1	11.8	12.0	21.2	15.4	-61	84	19	2338
Matt DiBenedetto	76.8	17.2	14.4	13.0	15.0	15	9	0	2500
Christopher Bell	72.6	22.0	22.7	16.7	18.7	31	14	9	1494
Tyler Reddick	71.0	14.7	15.0	16.0	17.0	4	15	0	1497
Ryan Newman	69.9	20.0	15.2	16.4	16.2	-38	19	0	2497
Bubba Wallace	69.4	26.4	18.4	15.6	17.8	42	25	23	2499
Erik Jones	67.4	14.8	15.4	22.4	18.4	-44	16	0	2390
Austin Dillon	65.6	21.2	16.6	21.4	19.4	-17	52	0	2396
Chris Buescher	63.1	19.8	21.8	19.4	20.2	-27	13	0	2145
Daniel Suarez	61.4	19.0	19.6	25.4	21.6	-48	46	0	2365
Ryan Preece	61.2	20.6	25.0	23.2	22.2	-25	35	0	2377
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	60.8	16.2	21.2	19.2	20.8	-31	6	0	2494
Cole Custer	60.4	22.7	23.7	20.0	22.0	-15	11	0	1494
Corey LaJoie	50.1	30.6	22.8	26.2	23.6	-19	1	11	2360
Michael McDowell	48.8	19.0	25.2	25.4	25.4	-49	16	0	2374
Ross Chastain	43.6	30.0	31.3	26.7	29.7	-10	21	0	1359
B.J. McLeod	35.6	37.0	35.5	28.0	33.5	5	2	0	972
Josh Bilicki	34.8	33.0	33.0	27.5	32.5	-6	1	0	983
James Davison	33.4	37.0	33.0	29.0	33.5	11	1	0	916
Joey Gase	30.7	37.5	36.5	34.5	36.0	18	2	0	911
Quin Houff	29.2	32.7	34.7	30.3	34.0	-12	2	0	1456
Garrett Smithley	27.5	35.0	37.7	35.7	37.0	1	2	0	1037

Betting Targets

I have absolutely no problem with anyone that wants to back Truex this week based on the history. Truex has become one of the best short-track drivers in the Cup Series and has been best with the 750hp rules package this season. Personally, I just don’t think there is enough value to have Truex in lineups at just 3.5 to 1 odds especially if you are looking to add variance to your betting card. Denny Hamlin would likely be the next best option but I would like to see better value on the #11 as well.

For now, I have a few less polarizing drivers on my radar for the outright victory which include the likes of Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski. Keselowski is a two-time winner at Martinsville and has finished inside the top 5 in 9 of the last 11 races at the half-mile paperclip which is a very underrated stat based on the complexity of racing at Martinsville. Like Keselowski, Ryan Blaney is another driver that could be targeted in all formats. Blaney has yet to put his hands on a famous Grandfather clock however the young driver has finished in the runner-up position in 2 of his last 3 starts. Blaney also has posted top 5 results in 4 of the last 5 races and has the 2nd best average finishing position (10.73) among active drivers. As a result, I feel like both Blaney and Keselowski have high ceilings this week which are being ignored by most casuals.

Since drivers can compensate for aerodynamic speed disadvantages at Martinsville, I believe we have some bottom-tier drivers that could surprise people on Sunday. Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher, and Cole Custer are among bottom-tier names that have consistently run inside the top 20 at Martinsville despite different sample sizes. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick and Matt DiBenedetto are really good options for H2H match-ups that may not be considered bottom-tier but may not receive a lot of attention. Reddick has been the most improved driver during the 2nd half of the season and posted an 8th place finish back in the April race. Meanwhile, DiBenedetto is my sharpest H2H bet of the week. If you look at Matty D’s career stats, you may not be impressed due to the majority of his career being behind inferior equipment. Since DiBenedetto’s tenure with Wood Brothers Racing, he has finished no worse than 12th in 3 starts. If DiBenedetto can replicate those numbers again this week, he should cover against the caliber of drivers in his match-ups.

Drivers to Fade

Kyle Larson is in the midst of an insane hot streak which includes 3 straight victories and totaled 9 victories on the season. With so much momentum, Larson is admittedly not a driver that we should bet against. However, I would argue that Martinsville is among the best tracks to potentially fade NASCAR’s hottest driver. In 13 career starts, Larson has just 3 top 10 finishes which includes a 5th place result in the April race. While the top 5 back in the spring does not necessarily spell weakness, Larson’s driving style is not exactly tailored for Martinsville and that shows in the numbers with an average finishing position of 21.08 through 13 career starts. Obviously, Larson is in better equipment this season with Hendrick Motorsports but I still don’t believe he deserves to be among the outright favorites which gives us some fade value for one of the top drivers.

*Other names I would consider fading, given the proper match-ups, this week includes drivers like Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, and Daniel Suarez

Draftkings 2021 Xfinity 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Xfinity 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +450 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +800 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1000 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Matt DiBenedetto -145 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -115 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Alex Bowman +125 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Matt DiBenedetto +750 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +750 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)