2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 6th, 2021. 4:00PM (EST) at Sonoma Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR returns to wine country on Sunday for the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Due to schedule changes related to COVID-19 last year, the Cup Series was forced to cancel their annual trip to the 1.99 mile road course in northern California. This Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 will be the first race held at Sonoma Raceway since Martin Truex’s victory in 2019. Truex has actually won the last two events at Sonoma (2018 & 2019) and comes into this weekend’s race leading the Cup Series with 3 victorie on the year.. At the time of those prior victories at Sonoma, Truex had emerged as the top road course driver in the sport and the overall betting favorite each time NASCAR visited the road course venues.

Since Truex’s most recent victory at Sonoma, there has been a changing of the guard among the Cup Series’ top road course talent by way of Chase Elliott. Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 events on road courses and recently picked up his 1st victory of the 2021 season in NASCAR’s debut at Circuit of the Americas which is an extremely challenging road course layout. Personally, I believe Elliott’s accomplishments on the road courses have not been given enough credit. Jeff Gordon is often referred to as the greatest road course driver in the sport’s history. Granted the Cup Series’ only visited two road courses each season throughout Gordon’s career, Gordon amassed 9 victories in 47 career starts. With all due respect to Gordon, Elliott has compiled 6 victories in just 14 career starts at the road courses and his current trajectory leaves minimal doubt that Elliott will likely shatter all road course records before the end of his career. I stress that statement so bettors understand how good Elliott is on this particular layouts.

Now with that brief rant out of the way, let’s discuss Sonoma Raceway specifically. Sonoma is a 1.99 mile layout that is composed mainly of 13 sweeping turns. Turns 7 and 11 are the only true heavy braking zones throughout the entire track. If I could be honest, Sonoma Raceway is not the most challenging road course when you compare it to layouts like Circuit of the Americas or even Watkins Glen among venues on the Cup Series schedule. As a result, I believe our handicapping strategy should be a combination of driver talent/skill set and performance under the 750HP package. Perhaps something in the range of a 75/25 split ratio between driver and performance under this rules package. I don’t believe we can completely throw out the 750HP performance this year because Sonoma is equivalent to several small short track corners that compile all 13 turns.

Road Course Statistics

Despite the fact I will be given some consideration towards 750 HP performance, the law of large numbers still provides our baseline for expectations and those numbers come directly from the averages at the road courses. For this week’s analytical view, I compiled statistics from the last 10 road course races that hopefully provides a concrete base for our road course trends. From these metrics, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr clearly stand out at the top of the chart with extremely impressive 115+ ratings over the course of 10 events. While that was to be expected, there were a few other surprises that caught my attention as well.

For example, Alex Bowman does not have the highest “rating” but is surprisingly averaging a top 10 finish at the road courses in the 10 race sample. Bowman also has one of the highest positive place differential averages (5.8) as well which is worth noting for fantasy purposes. Additionally, Kurt Busch has also recorded 6 top 10 finishes during the sample period. I have noted that the elder Busch is an underrated road course talent in prior previews this season. One important factor that will be in play this week at Sonoma is experience unlike the road course venues (Daytona & COTA) previously visited this season. For some of the veterans like Kurt Busch, I really expect him to have a strong performance and again he is another driver to keep in mind for fantasy purposes from the 30th starting position.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Finish	Avg. Start	Avg. Place Differential	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Laps Led
Chase Elliott	125.2	7.4	5.2	-2.2	10	6	7	8	280
Martin Truex Jr.	116	8.4	8.5	0.1	10	2	5	7	145
Kyle Larson	99.3	13.5	4.3	-9.2	8	0	1	4	64
Kevin Harvick	93.5	10.8	10.5	-0.3	10	0	2	7	69
Denny Hamlin	93.1	9.6	11.5	1.9	10	0	4	5	31
Kyle Busch	93.1	20.2	8.3	-11.9	10	0	3	4	50
Kurt Busch	90.2	11.2	15.4	4.2	10	0	3	6	10
William Byron	88.1	17.1	10.3	-6.8	10	0	0	4	71
Joey Logano	86.4	13.8	9	-4.8	10	0	3	6	29
Ryan Blaney	84.4	13.1	15.2	2.1	10	1	4	5	30
Christopher Bell	84.3	21	18	-3	4	1	1	1	11
Alex Bowman	83.3	9.5	15.3	5.8	10	0	2	6	5
Brad Keselowski	82.3	14.8	15.4	0.6	10	0	2	3	39
A.J. Allmendinger	81.8	14.4	11.2	-3.2	5	0	1	3	7
Erik Jones	81.1	13.8	20.2	6.4	10	0	3	5	2
Chase Briscoe	72.8	19	22.5	3.5	2	0	0	1	0
Michael McDowell	72.7	16.7	18.4	1.7	10	0	0	3	3
Cole Custer	72.4	20	20.3	0.3	4	0	0	1	0
Chris Buescher	71.3	14.5	19.3	4.8	10	0	1	1	0
Aric Almirola	71.2	16.7	16.1	-0.6	10	0	0	2	0
Daniel Suarez	67.9	20.9	20.5	-0.4	10	0	1	1	2
Tyler Reddick	67.8	19.25	14.8	-4.45	4	0	0	1	0
Matt DiBenedetto	67.5	18.1	22.5	4.4	10	0	1	2	0
Ryan Preece	66.5	21	20.7	-0.3	7	0	0	1	10
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	65.1	19.7	21.5	1.8	10	0	0	0	2
Austin Dillon	59.7	25	20.4	-4.6	9	0	0	0	0
Ryan Newman	58.5	21.2	22.8	1.6	10	0	0	1	0
Anthony Alfredo	52.4	20	34	14	2	0	0	0	0
Ross Chastain	50.1	25.86	28.9	3.04	7	0	1	1	4
Bubba Wallace	50	27.9	25.6	-2.3	10	0	0	0	0
Corey LaJoie	45.5	29	25.6	-3.4	7	0	0	0	0
James Davison	43.1	27.75	36.5	8.75	4	0	0	0	0
Justin Haley	36.4	32.67	27.7	-4.97	3	0	0	0	0
Garrett Smithley	35.6	31.75	33.5	1.75	4	0	0	0	0
Cody Ware	35	32.4	32.6	0.2	5	0	0	0	0
Josh Bilicki	34.8	34.17	31	-3.17	6	0	0	0	0
Quin Houff	28.9	33.75	32.3	-1.45	4	0	0	0	0

Betting Targets

Similar to last week’s Coca Cola 600, I am really looking forward to betting match-ups this week. I believe we have enough sharp targets and fades to make a difference if things go according to plan. For outright win bets, I actually favor Martin Truex Jr over Chase Elliott this week. Despite being the road course GOAT, Elliott has not been overly impressive at Sonoma. Meanwhile, Truex has the better track record at Sonoma and has also flat out performed better under this package. Outside the top two favorites which I have mentioned multiple times, I also have Kyle Busch on my radar this week. I have been thoroughly impressed with the #18 team’s improved performance in recent weeks and perhaps this team is starting to peak at the right time. Enter Sonoma where Busch is the only driver, besides Truex, to win multiple races. Busch’s last 5 starts at Sonoma have produced a 2-5-5-7-1 stat line which is 2nd to Kevin Harvick in average finishing position over that particular time frame.

For sharp betting options that provide value in all formats, I am putting heavy focus on William Byron and Joey Logano. I know I continue to mention Byron on a weekly basis but I am so impressed with the improvement from both team and driver from the #24 camp. Additionally, Byron led several laps at Sonoma back in 2019 in just his 2nd start in wine country. With so much momentum, Byron continues to provide weekly betting value among the 2nd tier drivers. While Byron may be garnishing more betting attention each week, Joey Logano could be a true sharp option this week. Logano does not have the best average finish (14.27) at Sonoma or the greatest resume on the road courses in general. However, Logano has been excellent under this rules package. In fact, Logano’s worst finish this season using the 750HP package is 6th which is the best stat among the Cup Series. Even if you consider the challenge that COTA presented just two weeks ago, Logano still managed a strong 3rd place finish and was probably one of the biggest surprises at the front of the field throughout the course of that event. Therefore, I feel like we have to give some really sharp notion towards the #22 team until proven otherwise.

*Additional drivers showing positive trends for H2H/fantasy value purposes include: Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, and Michael McDowell

Drivers to Fade

The road course statistics above will shed some light on the drivers that consistently struggle at road course venues. Among the drivers that could potentially be faded without hesitation include the likes of Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Newman. The problem is that it is very difficult to find value in fading those drivers. For sharper fade options, I would put Brad Keselowski towards the top of the list. Keselowski has only posted 1 finish inside the top 10 at Sonoma throughout his career and has publicly stated this is one of the tracks where he always struggles. When you combine some of the 750HP concerns around the #2 car into that equation, we have a strong fade candidate.

I know this will not be a popular notion but I am tempted to fade Elliott this week. At first glance, that thought seems asinine considering Elliott’s road course pedigree. However, Sonoma is not one of those venues with numerous heavy braking zones where the driver input produces significant dividends. Considering Elliott’s history at Sonoma and semi-struggles under the 750HP package, there may be some value in fading the overall betting favorite especially at plus odds. Lastly, another candidate that remains on my fade list this week is Bubba Wallace. Wallace still has not posted a top 10 finish this season and while he is typically listed among low-tier match-ups; he has been flat awful on road courses throughout his career. Through 10 career starts, Wallace’s average finish is 28th and an even better stat for bettors; he has failed to crack the Top 20 in his career on the road courses!

Draftkings 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 Optimal Lineup

2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 Betting Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +450 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +800 (1 unit)
William Byron +1400 (.5 unit)
Joey Logano +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Joey Logano -110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Kurt Busch +125 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -110 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Kurt Busch +750 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)