2021 Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 18th, 2021. 3:00PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Martin Truex Jr became the first driver to win multiple races in the 2021 season thanks to his victory in the Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Truex has now recorded two wins this year at Phoenix and Martinsville which both utilize NASCAR’s 750HP package. The “short-track” package will be in effect again this Sunday when the green flag waves for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Once again, Martin Truex is drawing a lot of attention due to the fact he has won 2 of the last 3 races on the D-shaped ¾ mile oval. Can Truex go back to back? Find out our thoughts as we break down our 2021 Toyota Owners 400 race picks!

Despite Truex’s recent wins at Richmond, I would not label him as the “best” at Richmond among active Cup Series drivers. Kyle Busch has scored 6 victories at Richmond which leads all active drivers. Both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick have recorded 3 victories each. Meanwhile, there is a host of other drivers that include Truex, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Kurt Busch that all have multiple Richmond wins on their resume. As a result, we got more than enough drivers that are capable of pulling off a victory this Sunday from the names above and many more. The question becomes who has the best legitimate chance to win based on current form, performance using this package, and more?

If we explore the handicapping angle related to performance using this 750HP package, Martin Truex and Denny Hamlin have clearly been the best drivers/teams this season. Despite Truex’s two victories, Hamlin is still searching for his 1st victory of the season. Hamlin leads the Cup Series in points and has posted top 5 finishes in 7 of 8 races on the season. Simply put, Hamlin is producing the same caliber of performance that we witnessed in 2020 which led to 7 victories and it is only a matter of time before the #11 team visits victory lane.

Richmond Loop Data

In this week’s loop data rankings, Martin Truex takes the top spot with an impressive 125.9 average rating over the last 5 races at Richmond. Truex has the best average running position (4th) and has led the most laps (431). Meanwhile, Kyle Busch fills in the #2 spot with a solid 114.9 average rating thanks to his Richmond sweep at both races during the 2018 season. While Busch’s performance has been spotty, Rowdy has been so strong at Richmond throughout his career with 18 top 5 finishes in 30 career starts. In fact, Busch has finished 1st (6) or 2nd (7) in nearly half of his career starts at Richmond which is truly an astonishing fact.

In terms of surprises, Kyle Larson shows up 11th on this list however I think that average is slightly misleading. Larson had 1 DNF in the 3 races he participated in this sample due to the fact he missed both races last season during his suspension. In reality, Larson has vastly improved at Richmond. Despite failing to crack the top 10 in his first 5 starts, Larson has posted top 10 finishes in 5 of his last 7 starts which includes a victory (2017) and runner-up finish (2016). Another driver that stands out with poor results at Richmond is Ryan Blaney. Blaney has been among the frontrunners each week this season but enters Richmond with a dismal 24.8 average finishing position through 9 career starts. It’s not just bad luck that has led to those poor finishes either. Blaney has been downright “bad” at Richmond with 0 top 15 finishes and has failed to earn a single stage point since stage racing was implemented in 2017. As a result, Blaney has to be kept among the top “fade” targets going into Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	125.9	6.2	3.6	4.2	4.0	38	143	164	579	2002
Kyle Busch	114.9	11.4	7.6	3.6	6.4	80	137	212	431	2002
Kevin Harvick	114.1	3	9.2	5.2	5.6	-6	124	172	119	2002
Brad Keselowski	113.5	10.6	4.8	6	5.2	33	153	138	379	2002
Joey Logano	106.6	9.6	7	7.0	7.8	4	112	88	189	2001
Chase Elliott	95.3	13.4	10.4	8	9.6	-4	126	37	36	2001
Denny Hamlin	95.1	9.8	11.4	7.8	10	16	143	88	51	2000
Kurt Busch	91.1	6	9.2	14.4	9.2	-42	137	49	113	1997
Austin Dillon	89.4	15	11.2	10.8	12.6	46	129	90	55	1998
Aric Almirola	87.2	15.8	8.8	14	11.4	10	127	40	1	1999
Kyle Larson	81.6	9.25	18.5	14.5	15	-20	86	12	0	1327
Erik Jones	78.6	16.6	13.4	12.8	15.4	46	93	23	0	2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	77.2	15.8	18.4	17.2	16.8	6	104	111	2	1999
Alex Bowman	76.4	12	17	16	15.6	-34	99	23	1	1997
Ryan Newman	75.5	18.8	12.6	18	14.4	30	140	29	0	1964
William Byron	72.5	14.2	16.6	18.2	17	6	82	23	0	1994
Daniel Suarez	69.4	27.8	15	16.8	18	22	109	31	0	1996
Cole Custer	69.1	11.5	17	20	18.5	-17	41	4	0	795
Ryan Blaney	65.6	13.8	17.4	20.6	17.8	-30	62	20	0	1995
Matt DiBenedetto	59.4	20.4	24	21.2	22.4	-15	47	11	0	1989
Bubba Wallace	54.8	25.8	22.6	23.6	24.6	-26	17	14	0	1989
Chris Buescher	53.1	19.2	25.4	26.8	24.6	-69	19	19	0	1983
Michael McDowell	52.2	19.2	26.6	27.6	26.6	-47	9	33	0	1831
Ryan Preece	51.7	20.3	24.7	23.7	25.3	-23	2	5	0	1191
Corey LaJoie	43.8	28.75	26.5	28.75	27.75	-18	4	7	0	1580
Ross Chastain	37.3	30	33.25	32	33	8	0	43	0	1452
J.J. Yeley	32.5	35	34	34	34	-8	0	1	0	779
Joey Gase	28.0	36	35.3	34.3	35.7	0	0	3	0	1162
Quin Houff	27.3	32.3	34.7	34.0	34.7	0	0	1	0	1160
Timmy Hill	27.1	37	38.5	38.5	38	-4	0	1	0	482

Betting Targets

As stated above, I believe Truex and Hamlin are the most probable betting targets in terms of the outright win. With that being said, I do believe Kyle Larson deserves more respect than he is being given. The trend throughout the 2021 season is that Larson has far out-performed his former averages with Chip Ganassi Racing which is exactly what we saw last week when Larson posted one of his best career finishes (5th) at Martinsville. I believe Larson has become a really good driver at Richmond and I think we will see another strong run from the #5 team this week. At 10-1 odds, I will gladly take Larson as a legitimate threat for the win with odds better than the other “favorites.”

Aside from win bets, there are a few drivers that have piqued my interest this week. Among those drivers include Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, and Daniel Suarez. I did not mention Logano in the win bets because I don’t think he provides a ton of value at his current betting odds. However, I still believe Logano deserves H2H consideration. Logano is a two-time winner at Richmond, finished in the top 5 in 5 of his last 7 starts, and has been stout under this 750HP package. For Dillon and Suarez, both drivers are among my favorite targets this week to produce sharp value in the form of H2H matchups.

Dillon and the entire Richard Childress Racing organization has been performing well which also increases Tyler Reddick’s stock following an 11th place result in his only Richmond start in 2020. For Dillon, he has been strong in recent trips with Richmond with a pair of 6th place finishes and a 4th place result in his last 4 starts. In last year’s lone Richmond race, Dillon led 55 laps, finished 2 in the opening two stages, and brought home a solid 4th place finish in what became one of his best performances of the season from the green flag to the checkered.

For Daniel Suarez, I think we have to start taking notice of this Trackhouse Racing Team. Suarez surprised everyone with a 4th place finish on the dirt at Bristol after leading several laps in the early stages of the race and the #99 team has been solid under this 750HP package that I keep mentioning. When you look at Suarez’s stats, he has always run well at Richmond. In fact, last year’s 29th place result was the first time Suarez failed to finish inside the Top 20. Suarez left Gaunt Brothers Racing at the end of 2020 to find better performance and that appears to be a successful mission with this new #99 team. Since Suarez continues to be listed among bottom-tier talents, I think we can safely add him to our target list this week.

Drivers to Fade

I mentioned above that Ryan Blaney’s stats at Richmond have been downright awful and honestly that trend does not make a ton of sense when you consider his performance at places like Martinsville and Loudon which share some similarities to Richmond. However, Blaney’s stats including average running position (20.6), fastest laps (20), laps led (0), and top 15 finishes throughout his career (0) all point to an unavoidable fade situation. Another popular driver that deserves fade consideration ahead of Sunday’s green flag includes Kevin Harvick. Harvick has been the most dominant driver in the Cup Series for the last several years but is undeniably struggling at the moment.

I personally don’t believe it is just Harvick and the #4 team that is struggling but rather the entire Stewart-Haas Racing organization. To put some evidence behind that statement, Harvick is the only driver from SHR to record a top 10 finish since Daytona. In fact, Aric Almirola is the only driver from SHR, outside of Harvick, to crack the top 15 thanks to his 11th place finish at Phoenix. Simply put, the performance from SHR is considerably down thus far into the season. Honestly, all the SHR drivers have been fade-worthy in recent weeks and that will be the case until we see a trend reversal. Despite a few decent finishes early in the year, Harvick has been riding around in the 7th-10th place range over the last few weeks. Until we see a trend reversal or odds-makers quit paring Harvick against the weekly favorites, I believe we have to consider the #4 car fade material.

Draftkings Toyota Owners 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Toyota Owners 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +650 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +850 (.5 unit)
Kyle Larson +1000 (1 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson -130 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
William Byron -115 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Kyle Busch +270 wins Group C (Blaney, Harvick, Bell, and Byron)(2 units)
Austin Dillon +150 finishes Top 10 (2 units)