2021 Toyota Care 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 17th, 2021. 1:30PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The Camping World Truck Series will return to action this Saturday at Richmond Raceway for the running of the Toyota Care 250. The last time we witnessed the Truck Series in action was 3 weeks ago when Martin Truex Jr dazzled on the dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway for his 1st Truck Series victory. The victory was the 2nd straight for Kyle Busch Motorsports and 2nd straight victory for the #51 team specifically following Kyle Busch’s victory at Atlanta the week prior. On Saturday, Busch returns to the #51 team in effort to keep the KBM momentum alive and will once again be the overwhelming betting favorite when the green flag waves for the Toyota Care 250!

So far this season, Kyle Busch is 1 for 2 in the Camping World Truck Series. Outside of the win at Atlanta, Busch finished in the runner-up position at Las Vegas behind teammate John Hunter Nemechek. The former Cup Series champion is a 6-time winner at Richmond in the Cup Series which is the best among all active drivers. Busch, like most other drivers, has limited experience at Richmond in the Truck Series but that is because the Truck Series did not compete at the ¾ mile D-shaped oval from 2005-2019. In last year’s Camping World Truck Series return to Richmond, Grant Enfinger pulled out a victory over Thorsport Racing teammate Matt Crafton which marks the only CWTS event at the track in recent memory.

Obviously when you combine Busch’s success at Richmond and typical Truck Series prowess, he is an undeniable favorite on Saturday. Busch is always an overwhelming favorite when he participates in Truck Series competition which presents a relatively unique betting conundrum. Bettors will have the option to take Busch at nearly even odds on the basis of a 38% career winning percentage in Truck Series action. If bettors find too much risk in taking Busch solely or do not like that strategy, bettors could be tempted to find juicy value in the rest of the field that will benefit from Busch’s participation with more favoring odds. So with those options on the table, let’s discuss betting options to consider for Saturday’s Toyota Care 250!

The Favorites

Despite Busch’s reputation, skill, and overall success at Richmond, this Saturday’s Toyota Care 250 is nowhere close to a slam-dunk. There are several drivers in this field that have shown tremendous skill sets on the short and/or flat surfaces. When I look across tracks like Iowa, Gateway, and even Martinsville which have different shapes but share similar driving characteristics, there are several drivers that standout. For starters, John Hunter Nemechek thrived on the shorter surfaces during the earliest stages of his career in the Truck Series. Nemechek owns victories at all 3 of the tracks that I mentioned above and is now in the best equipment (KBM) of his career. We have already seen JHN beat the boss on one occasion this season and that is not out of the question again this weekend.

The other two guys that are high on my list this weekend include Thorsport Racing drivers Ben Rhodes and Grant Enfinger. We could probably even throw Matt Crafton into the mix as well. Enfinger won at Richmond and Martinsville last season. When you look at Enfinger’s career, he has typically excelled at these types of venues due to his knack for maintaining long-run speed. Meanwhile, Ben Rhodes is the slightly sneaky pick this week. Rhodes won the first two races of the season at Daytona and even posted a surprising runner-up finish at Bristol. In last year’s Richmond race, Rhodes also had the highest average running position (3rd) and led the most laps (66). When I look at similar tracks and bodies of work over the last half-year, Rhodes is a must-play target this week given the relatively generous odds.

Betting Targets

For win (futures) bets, I love the value most of the guys behind Busch are getting and as a result will be forced into taking a chance at those options. Additionally, there are some really interesting H2H match-ups this week that appear to be favorable as well. For whatever reason, Grant Enfinger continues to be undervalued despite making his return to the #98 machine and outstanding trends towards performance at similar venues. This is the same #98 team that won this race a year ago and Enfinger is currently paired against mediocre talents. I simply don’t understand the logic.

I mentioned earlier that both Ben Rhodes and John Hunter Nemechek are two of my favorite targets among the favorites. Rhodes appears to have the more favorable match-ups but I will keep an eye on JHN as we move closer to start time. Among other potential options, I believe Sam Mayer is a must-play in fantasy line-ups from the rear of the field but I cannot really gauge his ceiling for H2H purposes. I am cautiously optimistic that Raphael Lessard provides under-rated value. Lessard has experienced terrible luck this season but checks of many of the handicapping boxes with strong performances at similar venues. I noticed Lessard is listed at plus (+) money in several match-ups and may be worth targeting against other fade options for the right price.

Drivers to Fade

By now if you have followed the first few races then you know the drill, I will continue to fade Brett Moffitt until further notice. Since joining Niece Motorsports, Moffitt has just one top 10 finish in 5 starts this season which come from a measly 9th place result at Atlanta. The former champion has obviously succumbed to less potent equipment yet odds-makers continue to pair drivers against Moffit with much higher ceilings. Additionally, I will list Austin Hill and Tyler Ankrum into my fade group this week for different reasons. Hill is listed among the favorites but rarely performs well at these types of venues. I have mentioned a few times that Hill is not known for his short-track talent and I believe this is an excellent pivot spot against the #16. Lastly, I have seen Tyler Ankrum listed in several match-ups this week and I simply think he is being overvalued. Ankrum finished 5th last year at Richmond but has failed to crack the top 15 in a single start this season. Until we send a trend reversal, it would be foolish to expect Ankrum to replicate last year’s results.

Draftkings Toyota Care 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Toyota Care 250 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch -130 (1.5 units) (cover play)
JHN +700 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1200 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Grant Enfinger -120 over Brett Moffitt (4 units)
Ben Rhodes -110 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Raphael Lessard +150 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -150 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)