2021 Toyota 200 Race Picks at Gateway

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday August 20th, 2021. 9:00PM (EST) at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The Camping World Truck Series will take center stage Friday evening under the lights at the World Wide Technology Raceway, formerly known as Gateway Motorsports Park, for the running of the Toyota 200 presented by CK Power. Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams will be in Michigan this week as both series are just a few races away from finalizing the playoff drivers who will battle for a championship. For the Camping World Truck Series, the time for the playoffs is now as Friday’s Toyota 200 will be the first race in the Round of 10 as the battle for the championship kicks off with exciting racing under the lights at Gateway.

The championship field is posted below. John Hunter Nemechek will start the playoffs with a comfortable lead thanks to his 5 victories this season. Oddly, there were only 5 winners among Truck Series regulars this season which left 5 open positions for drivers that earned their way into the playoffs on points. While some of the competitors like Stewart Friesen, Carson Hocevar, and Chandler Smith may not have shown great speed throughout the year, all of those drivers have shown flashes of greatness this season. More importantly than anything, nothing matters except how drivers perform moving forward and I think Gateway provides an opportunity to shake up the playoffs.

On the 1.5 mile and intermediate layouts, John Hunter Nemechek has been nearly unbeatable. In fact, Nemechek has recorded 4 of his 5 victories on track sizes that are 1.5 miles or greater. However, the Truck Series has shown greater parity on the smaller layouts and that is what bettors should expect on Friday. Gateway is a 1.25 mile oval that races like a short track because the turns are very flat which requires significant braking and slow-rolling the corners. The recipe for success at Gateway is not always having the fastest truck in terms of horsepower but rather a good handling truck with a good driver behind the wheel. The only comparable track to Gateway the Truck Series has competed at this year is Nashville Speedway. Leading up to the race at Nashville Speedway, I made several comparisons to Gateway and I believe we can look back at the Nashville race again this week for similar expectations.

At Nashville Speedway, Ryan Preece stole the victory with some late-race pit strategy. However, it is worth noting that Grant Enfinger, Chandler Smith, and Zane Smith had standout performances. Chandler Smith led a race-high 48 laps but did not get to finish to reflect the performance. Enfinger led 38 laps and captured a 3rd place finish. Meanwhile, Zane Smith never led many laps but posted an average running position of 5th to go along with his 4th place finish. Now, I am not necessarily saying these guys will be outright targets this week but I do want to make note of their performances at Nashville Speedway. Surely, Nemechek, Austin Hill, and last year’s winner at Gateway in Sheldon Creed will be important factors this week and that is where we really have to dig deep into the skill sets/performance factors to produce winning bets this week.

Truck Series Playoffs Drivers

DRIVER		POINTS	BACK	#ERROR!	START	WINS	TOP 5	TOP 10	DNF
1	John H. Nemechek#4	2049	–	1	15	5	9	12	1
2	Austin Hill#16	2021	-28	1	15	2	7	12	0
3	Ben Rhodes#99	2019	-30	-1	15	2	5	11	0
4	Todd Gilliland#38	2015	-34	1	15	1	7	11	1
5	Sheldon Creed#2	2011	-38	2	15	1	6	7	3
6	Zane Smith#21	2009	-40	-1	15	0	1	10	1
7	Matt Crafton#88	2004	-45	3	15	0	2	7	1
8	Carson Hocevar#42	2002	-47	1	15	0	3	5	0
9	Chandler Smith#18	2001	-48	2	15	0	3	5	3
10	Stewart Friesen#52	2001	-48	-1	15	0	3	4	3

Betting Targets

This year’s schedule revamp in the Truck Series has made this particular race difficult to predict. I mentioned earlier that the only comparable race this season is the Rackley Roofing 200 at Nashville Speedway back in June. The removal of venues like Iowa and even Dover have made it difficult to predict this weekend’s return to Gateway. Surely, bettors would probably like comfortable options like John Hunter Nemechek and Sheldon Creed this week. Nemechek’s winning percentage has been impressive this year and obviously Creed’s dominance in this race last season will steal some betting attention.

While both favorites are viable options, I am looking in different directions this week. For starters, I love Todd Gilliland’s potential this week at Gateway. Gilliland has been the hottest driver among the Truck Series regulars over the last several weeks. Since the victory at Circuit of the Americas, Gilliand has posted 6 straight finishes of 7th or better which includes 4 top 5 finishes. Additionally, Gilliland has posted two runner-up finishes at Gateway stemming from his 2018-2019 performances. This is one of those tracks that really suits Gilliland’s driving style and I really like his ceiling this week as all the indicators appear to be trending in the right direction.

Another driver that I believe has some similar upside possibly more so in H2H match-ups includes Chandler Smith. Like Gilliland, Chandler smith has posted some great runs in the last few weeks and has a solid Gateway resume that will likely be overlooked heading into the weekend. Smith finished 4th at Gateway in his 2nd career start in 2019 and had a great performance back at Nashville Speedway in June to help build the narrative for this style of racing.

I am also keeping close tabs on Zane Smith and Grant Enfinger this week. I mentioned both drivers earlier from their performances at Nashville. Zane led much of the early race last year at Gateway but only managed a 7th place finish. GMS Racing has not been quite as strong during the 2021 season which makes me slightly less optimistic for Creed and Z. Smith. However, both drivers are plenty strong enough to get a quality finish if not a victory. Lastly, don’t overlook Grant Enfinger. Enfinger has historically excelled at the flatter racing surfaces like Martinsville, Richmond, and Iowa. Enfinger has finished 8th or better in 3 of his 4 career starts at Gateway and I would not be surprised if he sneaks into the top 5 before this race concludes.

Drivers to Fade

Another driver that has been on fire in recent weeks includes the #16 of Austin Hill. Hill captured back to back victories at Knoxville and Watkins Glen. After cashing Hill at 22-1 odds at the Glen, odds-makers have significantly saturated Hill’s betting value for Gateway and he is listed among the 2nd-tier favorites. While Hill has not finished worse than 9th in 7 straight races, I believe this is the week to fade the #16 based on the over reaction from odds-makers. Hill has struggled a lot at the short tracks. I would guess the reason for this is based on driving style. Hill is an aggressive driver and you really need a timing skill set to master these flat surfaces as it is very easy to overdrive the corner. I think that is why Hill struggles at these layouts and while he does have a couple of solid finishes; he is usually a 7-12th place type performer and that leaves room to fade this week against drivers with much better ceilings.

Outside of Austin Hill, I believe we can pivot against the popular names this week and popular equipment for that matter. Josh Berry returns to the #25 truck where he has not made much happen. I have mentioned several times the struggles of Rackley W.A.R and therefore Berry’s stock is screaming “sell” this week. A new name that will make his 1st start with Kyle Busch Motorsports is Derek Griffith in the #51 truck. I have been pretty good at recognizing upcoming talent in the Truck Series and I am not very confident in Griffith’s opportunity this week. We have seen the part-time KBM drivers be heavily overvalued and if that happens again this week; I will fade Griffith with confidence!

Draftkings Toyota 200 Optimal Lineup

2021 Toyota 200 Betting Picks

*Final*

Zane Smith +675 (.5 unit)
Sheldon Creed +700 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +1200 (1 unit)
Chandler Smith +1800 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Grant Enfinger +100 over Tyler Ankrum (3 units)
Chandler Smith -120 over Christian Eckes (3 units)
Sheldon Creed -135 over Austin Hill (2 units)
Stewart Friesen -125 over Josh Berry (2 units)