2021 Super Start Batteries 188 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday February 20th, 2021. 5:00PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway Road Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series returns to action on Saturday with the running of the Super Start Batteries 188 at Daytona International Speedway’s Road Course. Last week, Austin Cindric picked up where he left off in 2020 by winning the season opener on the high-banks of Daytona International Speedway. Despite just having 1 win prior to the 2020 season, Cindric is on the heels of a 6 win campaign and has already solidified his spot as the weekly favorite in the series. On Saturday, Cindric will have the opportunity to go back to back at Daytona International Speedway in more ways than one. Not only can Cindric win his 2nd straight at Daytona in just a week’s time but Cindric is also looking to repeat his victory from last year’s inaugural Xfinity Series’ race at the Daytona Road Course.

Xfinity Series on the Road Courses

The one fortunate aspect to Saturday’s race is that the Xfinity Series competes on the road courses more than any of NASCAR’s touring series. Last year, the Xfinity Series competed at 4 different road course venues including Daytona, Indianapolis, Road America, and the ROVAL at Charlotte. Cindric is well-known for his road course skills. He scored his first two wins in 2019 on road course layouts at Mid-Ohio and Watkins Glen. Cindric also scored back to back victories at Road America and Daytona last year which is why he is the undisputed favorite going into Saturday’s race.

The only driver that I would put into the same category as Cindric is AJ Allmendinger who returns to the Xfinity Series full-time in 2021. Allmendinger is a former Cup Series driver that has revived his career in the Xfinity Series at Kaulig Racing with 3 wins in just 16 starts over the last two seasons. Allmendinger’s most recent victory came at Charlotte where he has won each of the last two races on the ROVAL. I consider that fact significant because the ROVAL is extremely similar to Daytona’s Road in its layout. Therefore, Allmendinger is the only driver that I would give the respect to challenge Cindric for the win this weekend barring neither driver makes any mistakes or runs into trouble.

Obviously with two juggernauts at road course racing in the field, win (futures) odds do not provide the most value for the Super Start Batteries 188. Therefore, I will likely stay very conservative in the realm of win bets. I may take a couple of low risk bets towards long shots just because there are a few guys like Noah Gragson, Daniel Hemric, and others that have shown flashes of road course talent. So if something happens to the top two drivers which are heavily favored, there is betting value in the rest of the field. Since we also have a large amount of data pertaining to the Xfinity Series races and the returning drivers, we can also feel pretty confident in predicting H2H match-ups this week to find additional betting value.

Loop Data

I usually do not compile loop data for the Xfinity Series because I do not find it as useful as compared to the Cup Series. However, I believe the road course performance trends are an exception to that rule. This style of racing takes a unique skill set and often provides honest trends in the realm of statistical metrics. As a result, I compiled loop data stats for the 4 road course races in the Xfinity Series last year. Keep in mind, I extracted any drivers that have graduated from the Cup Series (Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, etc.) and also this data does not capture any observations for drivers that did not compete in at least two road course races in 2020. The overall goal of this viewpoint is to show the top echelon of drivers that are expected to contend this weekend and how they traditionally perform at similar venues.

*Data reflects Xfinity Series road course results from 2020*

Rank	Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
1	Austin Cindric	127.1	6.0	8.3	3.3	6.3	49	44	61	227
2	AJ Allmendinger	121.1	24.0	4.5	2.8	8.3	151	23	23	227
3	Noah Gragson	106.3	5.3	8.8	3.5	8.8	50	10	18	227
4	Justin Allgaier	97.1	11.0	14.3	17.3	9.0	35	5	3	223
5	Justin Haley	94.9	5.5	20.3	21.5	16.0	23	7	10	152
6	Harrison Burton	90.3	6.8	7.8	20.5	13.0	-12	3	0	196
7	Alex Labbe	87.8	18.8	7.5	13.5	12.3	51	0	1	225
8	Riley herbst	82.2	14.0	16.0	18.8	13.3	-59	1	7	222
9	Michael Annett	78.7	6.0	18.3	10.8	13.5	-47	1	0	227
10	Jeremy Clements	77.3	18.8	16.8	16.0	16.0	81	1	0	224
11	Brandon Jones	76.9	6.3	14.0	15.8	16.5	-47	0	4	199
12	Preston Pardus	76.0	24.5	15.0	20.3	16.3	-1	2	7	193
13	Myatt Snider	69.7	25.8	9.3	18.0	16.0	2	0	0	223
14	Josh Bilicki	68.3	29.3	18.0	16.3	16.5	27	0	5	227
15	Brandon Brown	68.1	14.3	12.3	20.8	17.8	0	0	0	210
16	Ryan Sieg	67.7	8.5	17.3	14.5	19.0	-61	2	2	227
17	Jade Buford	67.1	23.0	21.3	14.3	19.0	58	1	0	227
18	Daniel Hemric	65.1	12.0	26.7	25.0	23.0	-21	0	0	89
19	Josh Williams	63.0	17.8	15.0	23.3	20.3	-62	1	0	195
20	Stephen Leicht	54.9	23.0	21.5	22.0	23.0	-1	3	0	227
21	Timmy Hill	52.9	27.0	26.0	19.0	23.0	-13	0	0	130
22	Tommy Joe Martins	52.6	25.0	28.8	23.3	26.0	-13	2	0	211
23	Kyle Weatherman	52.5	30.0	24.3	22.5	24.8	-18	3	0	172
24	Jesse Little	51.3	22.0	22.5	23.5	23.5	-18	0	0	205
25	Jeffrey Earnhardt	44.8	22.3	29.5	28.0	28.3	-1	0	0	161
26	Joe Graf Jr	44.0	27.8	28.3	23.0	27.3	-80	0	0	226
27	Bayley Currey	41.3	30.3	33.0	28.3	31.0	-19	0	1	106
28	Matt Mills	38.3	30.7	30.3	25.7	28.7	28	2	0	180
29	Brett Moffitt	28.8	17.5	37.5	37.0	36.5	-26	0	0	46

As you can see above, Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger stand out with dominating loop data numbers. Surprisingly, Noah Gragson has posted a solid 106.3 average rating through 4 road course events last season. I rarely perceive Gragson as a road course talent but he has posted finishes of 6th, 3rd, 6th, and 2nd in his 4 road course races last season; which is really solid work! A few other notable mentions include Canada’s Alex Labbe which seems to shine from his background in this style of racing. Labbe’s numbers are in the midst of the Xfinity Series’ top drivers and that is the type of outlier that we like to target in H2H match-ups.

Lastly, I will mention Daniel Hemric and Brett Moffitt as drivers that should be given more credit than their numbers show. Moffitt posted DNF’s in both of his starts last year but remains a solid road course threat which we have seen often in the Truck Series. Meanwhile, Hemric also had trouble in multiple races on the road courses last year but posted a 3rd place finish at the ROVAL which is more indicative of his talent level. Now at Joe Gibbs Racing, Hemric is one of those guys that I expect to win races at some point this season.

Betting Targets and Fades

Since Cindric and Allmendinger are justifiably huge favorites, I believe our betting targets and fades should be solely focused around H2H value this week. I mentioned Alex Labbe’s name earlier and believe he provides solid H2H value against mediocre competition. I believe our loop data stats above will help in H2H predictions this week so I don’t want to spend too much time breaking down every data element already shown above. I will just add one driver that may be a H2H sleeper this week is Ty Gibbs who will be making his 1st Xfinity Series start driving for his grandfather at Joe Gibbs Racing. Gibbs has been a standout in the ARCA Series with 6 wins in 16 starts in 2020. I firmly believe Gibbs will be the next big name that comes up through NASCAR’s ranks and I expect big things out of him. If we happen to find value in the rookie, don’t be scared to back him because he looked great at Daytona’s RC in last year’s ARCA race.

For fade considerations, I would put Brandon Jones and Jeb Burton towards the top of the list. It appears odds makers have uncovered the scoop on Burton’s road course abilities judging by win odds. Burton is listed at 80 to 1 odds for the victory and that is because he has been fairly awful at road course venues throughout every NASCAR series where he has competed. Still, keep Burton on your radar in-case we see better H2H fade opportunities closer to race time. For Jones, I believe fading the #19 car will be a sharper play this week. Jones finished 2nd at Daytona’s road course last season which was a shock to many because of his prior struggles at these layouts. I am doubling down and fading Jones again this week because I know this style of racing does not fit his skill set especially if I can find a match-up with other top threats against the #19.

Draftkings Super Start Batteries 188 Optimal Lineup

2021 Super Start Batteries 188 Betting Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +800 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +2500 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +4000 (.5 unit)
Ty Gibbs +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Ty Gibbs -110 over Miquel Paludo (3 units)
Riley Herbst +900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit) *Odds courtesy of Bovada