2021 Sparks 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 2nd, 4:30PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The 2nd race in the Xfinity Series’ playoffs will take place on Saturday with the running of the Sparks 300 on the high-banks of Talladega Superspeedway. Without question, Saturday’s 300 mile superspeedway race will be the most unpredictable and perhaps pivotal event of the Xfinity Series’ playoffs especially when you consider that Josh Berry stole a victory last week at Las Vegas meaning that nobody is locked into the next round. Of course, Saturday’s race at Talladega is not all about the playoffs because this is one of the few venues that opens the window of opportunity for surprise winners and huge winners for bettors!

In case anyone was wondering, I did not release any picks for the Camping World Truck Series’ Chevrolet Silverado which will precede the Sparks 300 on Saturday. I don’t typically forego races but I made the exception for the Truck Series’ event. Not only has the Truck Series only competed at one superspeedway venue this season but I thought the odds were utterly bad for the top half of competitors. I have done a great job this season to avoid forcing bets and I simply did not want to force anything for the truck race in what would have been mostly a guessing game. For the Sparks 300, I feel like we can productively construct some underlying expectations based on the 3 prior superspeedway races this season and even prior events in 2020.

Obviously, all superspeedway predictions are uncertain by nature and we will need a little luck on our side. With that being said, I think we can come up with some general understanding among the drivers that typically position themselves for an opportunity at victory. Most importantly, betting odds for Saturday’s Sparks 300 are relatively fair among the favorites and we actually can find value in a few long shots throughout the field as well. Overall, I simply like the value and ROI thresholds for this event should give us the confidence to fire a few darts.

Loop Data

For this week’s loop data observations, I have compiled collective performances from the 3 superspeedway races earlier this season at Daytona and Talladega. While loop data for the superspeedway races is far from reliable, it is a useful handicapping tool to show the drivers that typically stay at the front of the field. By default, the most probable betting targets should be aimed at those drivers that are typically in position to make something happen in the closing laps.

As you see in the loop data below, the Kaulig Racing cars have produced a significant advantage over the competition. In reality, this should not be a surprise for anyone that follows the Xfinity Series closely. Kaulig Racing puts a heavy emphasis on teamwork at the superspeedway races which has proven to be successful time and time again. Justin Haley has been the best superspeedway driver in the Xfinity Series with 4 wins in the last 6 races between Talladega and Daytona. No matter how you slice it, those numbers are absolutely incredible and Kaulig Racing’s determination to focus on teamwork only increases his chances again on Saturday. Personally, I like the value of both Haley and Allmendinger even as favorites this week. Earlier this year, I pulled the trigger on Jeb Burton at Talladega and was able to cash as a pretty sizable underdog. I’m not opposed to Burton this week but his odds have been cut quite a bit compared to prior superspeedway races this season.

Along with the Kaulig Racing cars, Harrison Burton and Austin Cindric have posted stellar averages this season from average driver rating and average running positions on the superspeedways. Beyond your typical drivers, I would take notice of the stellar results from the likes of Riley Herbst and Brett Moffitt. Both drivers are considered extreme long shots but have continuously run towards the front at the superspeedway races throughout the season. If you can find some high quality prop options for top 5 bets, Moffitt and Herbst are quality options given the right value.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
A.J. Allmendinger	103.1	14.3	7.0	3.3	9.0	57	6	29	312
Harrison Burton	103.0	5.3	11.7	7.3	7.3	-20	2	34	312
Austin Cindric	101.6	5.3	14.3	14.0	13.3	9	6	52	239
Jeb Burton	100.7	9.7	11.3	3.0	8.7	26	3	28	312
Daniel Hemric	96.6	11.7	13.3	8.7	11.3	59	9	18	312
Justin Haley	95.1	5.7	5.7	12.7	9.0	1	2	14	294
Riley Herbst	92.0	9.7	10.3	13.3	11.3	2	8	21	295
Brett Moffitt	91.7	11.7	7.7	10.0	11.3	32	9	6	312
Noah Gragson	91.7	3.7	7.0	15.0	11.3	30	13	24	266
Myatt Snider	90.2	14.7	17.3	8.0	11.7	1	3	3	312
Justin Allgaier	89.5	4.7	9.0	20.0	10.0	22	4	8	294
Brandon Brown	87.0	21.0	4.3	15.7	15.3	5	8	11	309
Ryan Sieg	84.0	13.7	20.0	17.3	20.3	71	7	24	271
Jason White	70.9	38.3	18.7	21.3	25.7	17	6	1	273
Jeremy Clements	68.1	12.7	18.0	20.0	18.3	-42	6	0	310
Tommy Joe Martins	66.2	19.0	23.0	17.7	23.3	-68	11	0	304
Joe Graf Jr	65.1	30.7	27.3	26.3	21.7	-14	8	0	298
Landon Cassill	61.8	30.3	27.3	21.3	24.0	-12	8	0	304
Brandon Jones	58.8	5.3	30.3	38.3	24.0	-64	3	3	161
Jeffrey Earnhardt	57.9	28.3	22.7	26.3	26.0	-11	5	0	264
Jade Buford	56.3	15.0	21.0	23.0	25.5	21	5	0	190
Josh Williams	56.2	16.3	26.3	22.0	24.0	-16	4	0	310
Alex Labbe	51.8	24.7	29.3	30.7	27.3	-29	6	0	250
Colby Howard	49.7	30.0	23.3	26.7	27.3	9	2	3	265
Ryan Vargas	48.9	28.0	25.7	25.0	27.3	-8	2	3	312
Bayley Currey	47.0	27.5	31.5	36.5	32.5	-35	2	0	109
Gray Gaulding	45.7	29.5	24.0	34.0	27.5	20	4	0	162
Kyle Weatherman	44.2	27.7	31.7	23.3	27.7	-93	1	0	310
Jesse Little	43.4	29.0	34.0	21.5	29.5	21	1	0	212
Caesar Bacarella	39.9	34.0	34.0	28.7	29.7	-16	2	0	288
Matt Mills	38.3	26.3	32.0	24.7	30.7	39	2	0	310

Betting Targets

As a reminder, I don’t typically take any H2H bets unless I see tremendous upside. Therefore, betting targets will be mainly discussed as options to be considered for the outright victory. As mentioned earlier, I really like Justin Haley and AJ Allmendinger for obvious reasons. Betting odds for both drivers are decent which means we could possibly roster both drivers as the bulk of our risks. If you want to pivot against the top favorites, I am still a huge fan of Harrison Burton’s superspeedway skills. Burton has been among the top threats at the superspeedway races along with Austin Cindric.

One driver that I have not mentioned yet is John Hunter Nemechek who will be in the #54 for Joe Gibbs Racing. I’m not sure if this is the ideal event for Nemechek to showcase his skills but he is in top notch equipment with the aggressive driving style to capitalize on the opportunity. As we move past the favorites, I believe the likes of Myatt Snider, Brandon Brown, Brett Moffitt, and Riley Herbst all deserve respect in the form of value potential. Brown is one of my favorite sleepers this week. Before the poor finish at Daytona in August, Brown had one of the highest average running positions in the field in the opening two superspeedway races and definitely should be considered based on current betting odds.

If you are looking for lottery style dark horses in the form of props or fantasy racing, Jason White and Jordan Anderson are among the drivers that I have on my radar. White is a bottom-tier talent who has produced two top 10 finishes in 9 career starts on the superspeedways. For fantasy purposes, White is a solid flier from the 34th starting position. Jordan Anderson will also be making a rare start this week. Several Cup Series veterans have competed for Anderson’s new Xfinity Series team this season and they seem to be getting better on a weekly basis. Like White, Anderson is another driver who is considered a bottom-tier talent with a deep starting spot but possibly has better equipment than most people realize.

Draftkings Sparks 300 Optimal Lineup

2021 Sparks 300 Race Picks

*Final*

*Futures odds courtesy of BetAnySports

AJ Allmendinger +900 (.75 unit)
Jeb Burton +1400 (.5 unit)
Harrison Burton +1800 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2500 (.5 unit)
Myatt Snider +4000 (.5 unit)
Brandon Brown +5000 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Sieg +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Tommy Joe Martins +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Jason White +2800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)