2021 South Point 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 26th, 2021. 7:00PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, NASCAR’s Cup Series closed out the opening round of the playoffs with fireworks at Bristol Motor Speedway. In the midst of the conflicts and mayhem, Tyler Reddick, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, and Michael McDowell were among the drivers with early exits from the championship battle. On Sunday, the opening race in the Round of 12 will convene at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the running of the South Point 400. While the playoff battle will keep us entertained, I am personally looking forward to this weekend’s return to Las Vegas because it provides a timely and advantageous betting opportunity with the return of the 550hp rules package.

One factor that will not see any discrete changes from recent weeks to Sunday’s South Point 400 is the fact that Kyle Larson remains the justified overall betting favorite. Following last week’s win at Bristol, Larson the weekend as the points leader and the defending winner at Las Vegas stemming from his victory in the spring. Larson’s victory in the Pennzoil 400 back in March was his first victory for Hendrick Motorsports and it came in relatively dominating fashion. Larson posted a stellar 142.6 driver rating and led 103 laps en route to victory. More importantly, Larson has been ridiculously strong on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year which includes victories at Vegas and Charlotte. Therefore it should not be any surprise that Larson will be the driver to beat again on Sunday.

Loop Data Observations

I have compiled multiple loop data sets worthy of observation this week. In the first table below, I have provided metrics from the last 5 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Keep in mind, Las Vegas is a 1.5 mile venue with significant grip and below average tire wear. With the 550hp rules package, drivers are nearly full throttle around Vegas meaning raw aerodynamic speed is the desired quality for betting targets. Personally, I don’t think historical trends project well for a place like Las Vegas and that is why I provided the bottom table which reflects the last 5 races this season at 1.5 mile venues. I believe the in-season performance trends are a much better indicator of what we should expect this weekend especially since it has been so many weeks since we saw this package in action.

In the bottom table, Larson clearly stands out with a lucrative 131.7 average rating. Larson has dominated the categories of fastest laps, laps led, and has an unforgettable average running position of 3.4 over the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues. Simply put, those numbers are flat out impressive. Behind Larson, the likes of Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney have also recorded triple digit ratings. Busch’s performance with the 550hp package during the latter half of the year has been mouth watering with finishes of 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 7th in the last 6 starts which includes races at Pocono and Michigan (not in the data set below). For Denny Hamlin, I am cautiously optimistic for his chances as well. Hamlin and the #11 team appear to have found some extra speed in recent weeks and while that could change with the different package, something tells me Hamlin is peaking at the right time!

Throughout the rest of the loop data, I think the performances of William Byron and Brad Keselowski are worth noting especially after tough opening rounds in the playoffs. On the flip side of the spectrum, Martin Truex Jr and Kevin Harvick are among the big names that have struggled with the 550hp rules package this season. If you keep scrolling down even lower, you will also notice that Joey Logano clocks-in with a measly 78.8 average rating through the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues. For a driver of Logano’s pedigree, that is extremely surprising. While some of those stats are influenced by bad luck, we cannot ignore the bad performances either.

*Data reflects last 5 races at Las Vegas

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Joey Logano	114.4	11.4	12.6	6.8	8.8	23	89	253	1336
Kevin Harvick	110.2	1.8	10.4	8.8	7.4	-7	114	227	1335
Martin Truex Jr	105.8	12.8	7.4	7.8	8.0	58	89	39	1336
Chase Elliott	104.7	8.2	8.8	14.8	7.8	59	160	177	1335
Kyle Larson	104.6	7.8	6.8	7.5	10.5	35	78	105	1068
Denny Hamlin	101.7	7.0	11.4	9.8	9.6	-11	77	171	1336
Ryan Blaney	100.1	16.8	12.6	10.0	10.2	46	80	22	1335
Brad Keselowski	99.5	13.4	13.4	5.4	10.0	77	69	46	1336
Alex Bowman	94.6	11.8	10.2	12.4	10.2	4	60	5	1334
Kyle Busch	93.5	8.0	18.6	9.2	13.4	8	52	19	1335
William Byron	93.2	15.0	5.2	15.6	10.2	36	87	64	1336
Kurt Busch	86.6	12.4	14.0	17.8	14.4	9	28	52	1254
Austin Dillon	81.1	10.2	16.6	16.0	14.4	-43	18	3	1328
Matt DiBenedetto	79.5	23.8	18.6	12.4	14.6	28	12	17	1333
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	78.7	19.2	16.2	13.8	16.2	-1	21	35	1334
Aric Almirola	78.5	15.0	16.6	19.2	15.4	-20	17	3	1247
Erik Jones	73.0	20.4	26.2	18.0	19.6	17	25	0	1323
Christopher Bell	70.1	21.3	19.7	21.3	18.0	41	9	0	792
Chris Buescher	69.2	22.4	17.6	14.6	18.2	18	4	11	1335
Ryan Newman	63.4	21.5	16.5	16.8	19.3	-12	3	0	1066
Tyler Reddick	57.5	16.7	12.7	26.0	22.3	-37	9	7	690
Cole Custer	56.9	19.7	22.0	20.0	23.0	-21	5	0	801
Daniel Suarez	56.1	22.0	19.8	24.4	21.8	-6	12	53	1326
Michael McDowell	55.2	15.2	24.6	25.6	23.8	-86	1	25	1308
Bubba Wallace	53.8	25.0	26.0	22.2	25.2	-6	12	0	1326
Ryan Preece	52.8	20.0	25.4	24.6	24.0	-11	1	0	1286
Ross Chastain	49.3	26.5	27.0	28.5	25.5	-17	6	0	1052
Corey LaJoie	46.5	31.4	13.6	27.0	26.4	-23	3	0	1251
B.J. McLeod	31.9	34.3	34.0	33.3	33.3	-3	0	0	739
Quin Houff	31.9	33.3	34.3	33.0	34.0	-10	0	0	773

*Data reflects last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	131.7	9.6	3.6	8.2	3.4	17	304	831	1519
Kyle Busch	115.0	12.8	7.0	2.8	6.0	78	122	112	1519
Denny Hamlin	105.9	8.8	8.2	8.0	7.4	16	55	86	1519
Ryan Blaney	102.9	13.8	11.0	9.0	8.6	18	75	28	1519
William Byron	99.8	7.2	9.4	9.8	7.8	1	105	46	1518
Brad Keselowski	97.0	8.4	11.2	10.8	10.2	9	61	105	1515
Alex Bowman	96.8	14.4	9.8	11.4	9.8	12	51	5	1517
Chase Elliott	95.6	6.8	12.4	13.0	11.2	80	76	57	1414
Martin Truex Jr	92.9	6.8	14.0	10.6	10.0	10	35	6	1510
Austin Dillon	89.3	10.0	14.4	9.2	11.8	35	34	1	1519
Kevin Harvick	88.5	7.6	15.8	10.6	13.4	40	48	0	1518
Matt DiBenedetto	83.5	17.8	15.0	11.6	12.8	0	6	2	1516
Tyler Reddick	83.0	14.6	11.2	14.0	14.6	-1	47	13	1516
Kurt Busch	82.1	13.2	23.4	22.4	17.6	6	74	145	1045
Chris Buescher	80.5	19.2	16.4	10.6	15.0	20	18	13	1519
Christopher Bell	78.8	10.6	16.4	17.6	14.6	-12	31	3	1512
Joey Logano	78.8	14.6	15.2	15.4	13.4	-51	17	7	1515
Bubba Wallace	68.5	18.6	21.6	19.6	19.8	3	16	0	1512
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	67.8	14.0	16.4	21.2	19.0	-13	12	23	1428
Ryan Newman	63.8	21.8	23.0	20.4	21.4	-15	27	0	1510
Ross Chastain	62.0	17.0	26.2	21.8	22.4	-23	16	0	1476
Daniel Suarez	61.9	20.8	16.6	21.0	22.4	-5	17	13	1497
Erik Jones	61.2	23.8	24.0	19.8	21.6	9	23	0	1512
Michael McDowell	58.6	15.0	16.2	19.2	21.6	-45	13	9	1511
Chase Briscoe	56.9	19.8	25.2	20.4	23.0	-23	2	0	1513
Cole Custer	56.2	20.6	18.4	21.0	22.2	-21	0	1	1513
Aric Almirola	54.8	22.6	20.6	26.4	23.2	-21	3	8	1421
Ryan Preece	52.5	23.2	20.4	24.6	23.8	-19	16	1	1503
Corey LaJoie	50.0	28.2	21.2	26.8	25.2	-41	29	0	1428
Anthony Alfredo	49.3	28.4	16.0	25.0	24.8	-6	1	4	1508
Justin Haley	40.8	28.0	26.4	29.2	30.0	-37	9	0	1494
B.J. McLeod	35.5	32.8	32.2	31.2	32.0	-10	0	0	1476
Cody Ware	34.5	32.6	33.2	32.4	32.8	-6	0	0	1474
Garrett Smithley	32.8	35.0	33.3	32.3	33.0	12	0	0	1158
Quin Houff	31.0	34.4	33.4	34.0	33.6	-12	0	0	1463
Josh Bilicki	26.3	35.2	36.8	36.0	36.6	-13	0	0	1417

Betting Targets

When you factor in betting odds this week, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin stand out as the drivers with the best betting potential. Granted, Kyle Larson is going to be tough this weekend as many would expect. At 3-1 odds, I cannot stand behind Larson when the playoffs produce higher volatility. At more than twice the value of Larson’s betting odds, both Busch and Hamlin produce enough value to warrant betting attention. I mentioned earlier Busch’s performance under the 550hp rules package has been phenomenal during the 2nd half of the season and Hamlin also appears to be peaking at the right time. I think bettors can legitimately roster both drivers this week and feel pretty confident especially given the better ROI.

The drivers that stand out this week in the realm of H2H match-ups include the likes of Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Tyler Reddick. I’m not sure if we will get a lot of value on Blaney this week due to a pair of wins in recent weeks. However, Blaney has been sneaky fast all season and is among an elite group of drivers in the triple digit average rating category in the loop data metrics above. A less obvious and potential sharp play surrounds Brad Keselowski in the #2 car. Keselowski has made little noise during the 2nd half of the season but has been really solid under the 550hp rules package. In my opinion, this is an ideal spot to pivot against the fading performance of the #2 team and potentially get a quality performance.

Lastly, it’s about time everyone paid attention to Tyler Reddick’s continued improvement. You may not have noticed the results in recent weeks at the short tracks. However, Reddick is posting great performance trends on the larger layouts especially on the 1.5 mile venues. There has been a significant uptick in performance from the #8 team since the beginning of the year and the results have shown with the 550hp package. For a driver that is consistently paired against mediocre talent, I feel like Reddick is a value steal going into the weekend.

Drivers to Fade

It is very rare that I have more drivers that I am willing to confidently fade on a given weekend compared to the drivers that I want to target. Nevertheless, I’m not convinced guys like Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, or Joey Logano belong anywhere near the top group of overall favorites. All 3 drivers are among the top 7 betting favorites and have posted miserable results this year on the 1.5 mile tracks. Truex offers the sharpest fade potential given his recent success in the Round of 16 on the small tracks where he has turned into an excellent short-track talent. However, Truex and the #19 team have not shown the same speed on the larger tracks this year but he is in the same odds range as guys like Busch and Hamlin who are performing much better on these types of layouts.

Harvick and Logano are additional options who have really struggled this season with the 550hp package. Logano has had some bad luck but is capable of producing quality speed. The #22 team just has not been consistent. Harvick on the other hand has struggled throughout the year. There is a reason Harvick went from 9 wins in 2020 to winless this season. The reason is because Stewart-Haas Racing took a big step backwards in the speed department and that has been most observable with the 550hp rules package. Against the top drivers, Harvick is a clear fade. Lastly, I will throw out another bottom-tier fade option in the likes of Chase Briscoe. If you combine laps led, fastest laps, pass differential, and average running position metrics, Briscoe is among the bottom 8 drivers in the series. If we Include the SHR struggles into the equation as well, Briscoe appears to be a reliable fade option!

Draftkings 2021 South Point 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 South Point 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +850 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +900 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1500 (.5 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Erik Jones -145 over Michael McDowell (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -120 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +140 over Christpher Bell (2 units)
Chris Buescher +125 over Aric Almirola (2 units)