2021 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 11th, 2021. 2:30PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

For the 2nd time this season, NASCAR’s Cup Series will visit Atlanta Motor Speedway when the green flag waves for the Quaker State 400 on Sunday. Back in March, Ryan Blaney stole a victory away from Kyle Larson in the closing laps to win the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Larson displayed a new flawless performance by leading 269 of 325 laps but Blaney was able to run the #5 car down to make the winning pass with just 9 laps to go. In many ways, it was a perfect example of racing at Atlanta where often long-run speed prevails due to the aged surface yields significant tire wear.

When the Cup Series returns for round 2 on Sunday, Atlanta will be the last 1.5 mile intermediate track on the schedule before the playoffs begin in September. Once the playoffs begin, there will be at least 1.5 mile venue in every round of the chase until the finale at Phoenix. Therefore, rest assured teams will be utilizing Sunday’s Quaker State 400 to make as much ground as possible before we move into the critical stretch of the season. With this week’s return to Atlanta, bettors will not have the luxury of observing practice like we did last week at Road America. However, we have learned enough this season on the 1.5 mile tracks to attack Sunday’s Quaker State 400 with aggression especially in the realm of H2H match-ups.

Loop Data for Atlanta

I have compiled two data sets for this Sunday’s Quaker State 400. In the first breakdown below, we have cumulative loop data metrics for the past 5 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway. It is worth mentioning that both Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski have scored two victories in the last 5 races. Harvick leads all drivers with an impressive 125.6 average rating which includes a series-best 5th place average finishing position during that stretch. In reviewing the historical data related to the last 5 races at Atlanta, there are few surprises towards the top of the metrics if you browse the previous winners list at Atlanta. With that being said, it is rather surprising to see the hometown star of Chase Elliott so far down the list with a subpar 88.8 average rating for the reigning champion.

A few other notable observations on the historical side include Kurt Busch’s strong results. Before the 39th place finish in March, the elder Busch had posted 5 straight finishes of 8th or better at Atlanta. Kurt Busch is actually tied with Kevin Harvick for the most wins (3) among active drivers and perhaps yields some H2H/fantasy value this week. On the other side of the spectrum, Atlanta has not been a pleasant stop for the likes of William Byron and Tyler Reddick who have shown great improvement this year. Byron has posted finishes of 18th, 17th, 33rd, and 8th in his 4 starts at Atlanta. Meanwhile, Reddick has posted measly finishes of 16th and 26th in his two starts.

In the bottom table, I have compiled loop data metrics for the 3 prior races this season at Homestead, Atlanta, and Charlotte. Instead of compiling all 1.5 mile venues, I pulled a more selective sample of races. Obviously the prior race at Atlanta has the highest credibility this season however Homestead is very similar in terms of tire wear and Charlotte is nearly identical in specifications. Therefore, I thought these 3 races would be a good viewpoint to look at performance trends at these venues. Without much surprise, the Hendrick Motorsports have emerged towards the top of the list. The Hendrick cars dominated the Coca Cola 600 and seem to be getting better within the 550hp package.

Personally, I would continue to give Alex Bowman betting attention. Bowman is having a career best season with 3 victories yet continues to be the lowest rated Hendrick driver in terms of betting odds. Perhaps the other biggest surprise on this list surrounds the #3 car of Austin Dillon. Dillon has the 5th highest average rating at 97.1 which is better than the likes of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and others. Dillon has historically performed best at the 1.5 mile venues especially at Charlotte and his 6th place result in the spring is reason to keep Dillon on the radar this week.

*Last 5 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	125.6	7.6	6.2	5.0	6.0	49	226	669	1625
Kyle Larson	116.8	7.3	4.0	6.3	5.3	19	173	418	1300
Martin Truex Jr	111.3	13.2	7.0	5.4	6.2	63	111	70	1625
Brad Keselowski	105.1	7.8	7.0	8.2	9.2	-10	119	97	1621
Kyle Busch	99.9	6.6	8.8	7.2	8.8	37	89	16	1625
Denny Hamlin	96.1	7.4	8.2	12.4	9.6	-10	40	53	1482
Kurt Busch	95.4	10.2	14.8	12.6	12.2	24	44	55	1413
Ryan Blaney	95.2	16.6	11.6	11.4	11.0	9	90	68	1623
Joey Logano	91.2	11.0	11.6	12.0	10.8	14	79	33	1623
Chase Elliott	88.8	13.2	10.6	16.0	11.6	12	42	26	1519
Alex Bowman	85.1	14.0	11.0	12.5	13.0	2	22	0	1296
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	82.9	9.2	16.4	14.4	13.6	11	22	1	1622
Ryan Newman	81.7	12.4	15.2	19.4	15.8	-49	54	20	1605
Erik Jones	74.4	16.8	13.8	16.8	16.4	1	20	0	1620
Austin Dillon	74.2	16.6	13.4	16.8	15.2	-1	11	0	1616
Aric Almirola	70.3	12.0	18.0	17.0	17.8	-3	29	36	1619
Daniel Suarez	66.9	18.4	18.6	18.8	18.8	-10	18	1	1612
Christopher Bell	65.9	17.5	17.0	19.5	19.5	9	2	0	647
Chris Buescher	65.2	22.4	20.8	17.4	20.4	-6	16	0	1618
Cole Custer	64.4	29.0	18.5	18.5	19.5	18	1	0	648
William Byron	63.8	17.3	20.5	19.0	21.0	-33	9	2	1286
Tyler Reddick	62.4	26.5	25.5	21.0	22.5	-3	5	0	647
Matt DiBenedetto	58.5	22.6	20.2	24.2	21.8	-36	5	0	1611
Bubba Wallace	54.9	21.5	24.8	24.0	22.8	-7	1	0	1289
Ryan Preece	53.9	25.7	22.3	28.7	23.3	-5	7	0	917
Michael McDowell	49.1	23.8	26.2	26.6	26.2	-35	11	0	1511
Ross Chastain	45.5	29.0	30.0	25.0	28.0	12	5	0	957
Corey LaJoie	42.1	27.8	30.8	29.8	30.0	-30	39	0	1274
Quin Houff	36.0	35.0	32.0	32.5	32.5	-3	0	0	628
Josh Bilicki	31.1	34.5	36.5	35.5	36.0	-7	0	0	598
Cody Ware	28.9	36.0	36.3	34.3	35.3	3	0	0	693
B.J. McLeod	28.4	35.7	36.3	35.3	36.0	0	2	0	629

*Loop data stats from Homestead, Atlanta, and Charlotte

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	136.8	8.0	3.7	2.3	2.3	25	191	601	992
William Byron	119.2	14.7	4.0	4.3	4.7	35	89	123	992
Alex Bowman	104.5	11.3	5.0	5.7	7.3	21	24	5	992
Kyle Busch	100.1	21.0	9.0	6.0	9.0	59	51	1	992
Austin Dillon	97.1	13.7	7.3	8.0	9.3	35	34	1	992
Kevin Harvick	96.8	5.3	13.7	8.3	11.7	-3	38	0	992
Denny Hamlin	96.5	5.3	8.3	7.3	9.7	29	14	30	992
Martin Truex Jr	95.0	6.3	8.7	13.7	9.3	-13	35	37	983
Chase Elliott	91.8	6.3	9.0	18.0	12.0	12	50	26	887
Chris Buescher	91.3	18.7	6.3	11.3	11.3	8	56	57	992
Ryan Blaney	90.7	11.7	13.3	14.3	12.7	-1	39	27	991
Brad Keselowski	83.5	8.0	13.3	18.3	14.0	-40	41	53	988
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	80.4	9.7	15.7	12.3	14.0	14	12	0	992
Joey Logano	79.6	7.0	13.3	19.0	13.3	-61	12	12	989
Tyler Reddick	77.4	26.3	19.0	12.3	18.7	43	23	6	990
Ryan Newman	77.3	25.3	11.7	15.7	15.3	24	13	0	988
Daniel Suarez	73.0	18.3	20.7	15.7	18.7	-14	16	2	989
Kurt Busch	72.9	9.3	27.0	28.3	22.0	-14	40	1	519
Matt DiBenedetto	70.3	26.3	14.7	19.0	16.3	-12	8	2	989
Bubba Wallace	69.9	17.3	18.3	17.3	17.0	12	3	2	991
Michael McDowell	67.6	16.0	21.7	15.0	18.3	-7	6	0	989
Cole Custer	63.1	20.0	21.0	20.7	18.3	-13	0	0	988
Christopher Bell	62.4	9.3	19.3	21.7	20.0	-33	7	3	987
Ross Chastain	60.9	21.0	25.0	22.7	24.0	-11	15	0	951
Erik Jones	58.1	19.7	24.0	22.3	22.3	-27	23	0	987
Aric Almirola	55.4	21.0	19.0	24.0	21.7	-8	0	0	985
Chase Briscoe	54.6	25.0	27.0	21.3	25.0	1	1	0	987
Ryan Preece	50.5	19.7	24.3	24.0	24.7	-17	5	0	987
Anthony Alfredo	48.9	29.3	25.7	25.3	26.0	-18	0	3	986
Corey LaJoie	47.8	27.0	26.0	28.0	27.0	12	29	0	868
Justin Haley	41.7	25.3	30.0	28.0	29.7	-25	9	0	980
Cody Ware	35.5	31.0	32.7	31.0	32.3	-11	0	0	966
Quin Houff	33.2	35.0	32.0	33.3	32.7	-1	0	0	961
B.J. McLeod	32.3	32.7	34.3	33.0	34.3	-6	0	0	960
James Davison	31.7	32.7	34.3	34.0	34.3	10	0	0	765
Josh Bilicki	28.2	36.7	36.0	35.0	35.7	-7	0	0	926

Betting Targets

After a forgettable performance at Road America, Kyle Larson is the justifiable chalk play this week. After nearly posting a perfect rating back in March despite the runner-up finish, Larson rolls into Atlanta not far removed from an equally dominant performance in the Coca Cola 600. All signs point to Larson getting the victory that the #5 team let slip away in March and I would be relatively surprised if he fails to get the job done again this week based on their current performance. If Larson can’t get the job done, I like the semi-sharp dark horse picks of Alex Bowman and Kyle Busch to be factors as well.

I mentioned earlier Bowman continues to be undervalued for whatever reason and he is coming off a career best 3rd place finish at Atlanta in the spring. Meanwhile, Rowdy has quietly become the biggest threat in the Cup Series behind Larson. After scoring his 2nd victory of the season at Pocono, Busch has plenty of reason to be happy because the #18 team is getting the job done. Busch and the #18 team have consistently unloaded fast cars throughout the summer months which has resulted in top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races. If you want an even better angle, Rowdy has finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st in the last 4 races with the 550hp package. Therefore, do not overlook the #18 team this weekend.

For H2H purposes, I am anxiously waiting to see all pairings this week. Kyle Busch will be one of my primary betting targets among the favorites in H2H match-ups. If I can find Busch paired against the likes of Harvick, Keselowski, and others who are struggling, I will back the #18 with confidence. Additionally, I have guys like Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, and Chris Buescher on my radar this week. I mentioned the reasons for Dillon and Busch above. For Buescher, I have started to notice the driver of the #17 runs exceptionally well at these venues with heavy tire wear. Buescher has a very smooth driving style and I think that is why it pays dividends at places like Atlanta and Homestead. Buescher has posted top 10 finishes in 2 of his last 3 starts at Atlanta and I think the power from the Chevrolet teams could set Buscher up with another top 10 opportunity.

Drivers to Fade

For whatever reason, Joey Logano has struggled heavily under the 550hp rules package this season. From an analytical perspective, Logano has been a near fade at every 1.5 mile venue this season and we can use that to our advantage going into Sunday. I also continue to throw the Stewart-Haas Racing cars into the fade bucket as well. I would never fade Kevin Harvick at Atlanta because it is one of his best tracks. For teammates Aric Almirola, Chase Briscoe, and Cole Custer, I don’t think they have the experience or raw talent to overcome the SHR struggles. Therefore, all of those drivers are also worthy of fade consideration as well.

Draftkings 2021 Quaker State 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Quaker State 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +750 (1 unit)
William Byron +1200 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1400 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +1800 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson -135 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Alex Bowman +125 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Chris Buescher -110 over Matt DiBendetto (2 units)
Austin Dillon +160 finishes Top 10 (2 units)